Posters...Colorado St Will Battle Airforce To The Wire

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Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
34,863
Col St. +13. Interesting play JJ.

  • Air Force (offense is 80% rushing)
  • Col St. (offense is 80% passing).
  • Air force passing Def is 2nd in nation (allowing only 161 ypg).
  • There is a 70% chance of rain which may hinder Col St. Passing game.

GL
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
9,111
My stacking percentages forecast has Air Force scoring 41 or 45 points, both with roughly equal probablity to Colorado State's 17 points.

The non predicitive public gauge shows Force winning 31-14.

I think this explains much of the early line movement. It remains to be seen if there are Colo St backers, maybe at 14, perhaps some at 13.5, that can support the price and halt the rise.
 
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Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
34,863
My stacking percentages forecast has Air Force scoring 41 or 45 points, both with roughly equal probablity to Colorado State's 17 points.

The non predicitive public gauge shows Force winning 31-14.

I think this explains much of the early line movement. It remains to be seen if there are Colo St backers, maybe at 14, perhaps some at 13.5, that can support the price and halt the rise.
Do the stacking percentages factor in weather at all KVB?
70% chance of rain.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
9,111
Do the stacking percentages factor in weather at all KVB?
70% chance of rain.

Weather is factored in and can be adjusted up to game time but for the most part it's noise or not that influential especially in this prediction.

Rain or not, Force will have almost the same gameplan.

Wind is usually a bigger factor than rain, and at high winds it will affect the passing game.
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
34,863
Weather is factored in and can be adjusted up to game time but for the most part it's noise or not that influential especially in this prediction.

Rain or not, Force will have almost the same gameplan.

Wind is usually a bigger factor than rain, and at high winds it will affect the passing game.
I know Col St. is big passing team. The rain might slow them down a little.
I also see 12 mph winds. I usually don't consider anything < 15 mph as a factor in my capping.
 
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KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
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9,111
It's gonna be cold and looks like it might be snowing, maybe on and off, for much of the game, with snow on the ground at game time.

But winds should be tempered at less than 10 mph.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
9,111
My stacking percentages forecast has Air Force scoring 41 or 45 points, both with roughly equal probablity to Colorado State's 17 points.

The non predicitive public gauge shows Force winning 31-14.

I think this explains much of the early line movement. It remains to be seen if there are Colo St backers, maybe at 14, perhaps some at 13.5, that can support the price and halt the rise.

The final score of 30-13 was a little closer to the public gauge there, but Air Force still covered.

Even with the line pushing 14.5 or 15.

Sorry, Gold, the predictive analytics prevail again.

:cheeleade
 
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