Rutgers/Iowa TOTAL opened at 28.5 (Circa) - have you seen one lower?

[209life]

I had Boise st moneyline Sat night.

Ended up being a good game, Fresno got it done. Their only loss now was that trip to Wyoming. I think we were talking about that over BMR Poker. Always tough in Wyoming.

Boise St is imploding right now. Top WR McAllister transferred out this morning.

 

[JDS]

On the contrast to very low totals, USC is on a huge over tear the last year & half I believe it’s 17-1 to the over with their games.

 

[fishhead]

On the contrast to very low totals, USC is on a huge over tear the last year & half I believe it’s 17-1 to the over with their games.

WOW

 

[KVB]

On the contrast to very low totals, USC is on a huge over tear the last year & half I believe it’s 17-1 to the over with their games.

WOW

I can verify this.

USC is 19-4 this season and last on OVERS.

3 of the 4 UNDERS were Sept and Oct 2022. This year's UNDER was Sept 9th against Stanford...the closing line was 70.

The average (mean) TOTAL in those 23 games is 66.57 while the median is 66.

 

[KVB]

The average (mean) TOTAL in those 23 games is 66.57 while the median is 66.

The final scores in those games had an avg final score of 73.78 and a median of 72.

In 2022, the final scores avg was 69 and median 71, the avg Total line was 66.81 and median of 66. There were 3 Totals closing over 70 points and none below 60.

In 2023, the final scores avg is 80 and median 82, but the avg Total line is 66.25 and median 67. There were once again only 3 Totals closing OVER 70 points and it's worth noting that the Utah game was a 52 and 51.5 in the market and no other game below 60.

The median Total this year is up 1 point, despite the body of scores in nearly two years. It's the last game, against Wash that was the highest Total this year at 76, 76.5 in some houses.

In the game before, against Cal, they scored 99 points. The Wash game had 94 points.

Last year the USC UCLA game closed at 77.5. They scored 93 points.

Those are the two highest spreads over the last two years and make up 2 of 6 that closed over 70.

Can the bookmaker adjust here? Is there such a market influence that you simply can't hang too high of a line or it gets hit too much? There is psychology involved here.

Hey @jjgold @pete0 @purplegrape and everyone else, have these markets been efficient? Has anyone been creating their own forecasts? Totals forecasts? Go back and look, what do you think?

@jjgold , there is variance in short term results, but the market's efficiency is subject to more than just a refined number. It's not always just "built in" to the market. There becomes a balance with limits so that the market/bookmakers can have action they want. They can take positions, but just as we have to Know Our Markets, the books have to know their customers.

Alright, I'll stop there. As many know, I could keep going....lol. I hope I made sense here. I hope all can pick up what I'm putting down. I hope to add to these thoughts.



For this post, here are applicable KVB quotes...

"If you know why the market opened like it is and moved to where it moved you will go a long way towards winning long term."

"Keep track of your bets and why you made them."

--KVB

 

[KVB]

I want to add some more info on USC game Totals...

This year, the opening Total DROPPED in 4 of the 10 games so far, closing lower.

In 2022, only 3 of the 13 Totals DROPPED from the open.

All 4 UNDER games over the last two seasons occurred when the line closed HIGHER than the open.

 

[all_in_13]

Have this game pegged for OT

13-10 final?

 

[fishhead]

13-10 final?

RUTGERS 16-13

 

[JDS]

I want to add some more info on USC game Totals...

This year, the opening Total DROPPED in 4 of the 10 games so far, closing lower.

In 2022, only 3 of the 13 Totals DROPPED from the open.

All 4 UNDER games over the last two seasons occurred when the line closed HIGHER than the open.

Solid info KVB.

 

[fiftycint]

17-7 Iowa

 

[pete0]

I want to add some more info on USC game Totals...

This year, the opening Total DROPPED in 4 of the 10 games so far, closing lower.

In 2022, only 3 of the 13 Totals DROPPED from the open.

All 4 UNDER games over the last two seasons occurred when the line closed HIGHER than the open.

Noting it down.

Thanks for the nugget @KVB

 

[pete0]

like, they say,

money, women & vacations dont ever get boring


@JDS u making a NCAAB thread this year ?

u should bro.

 

[JDS]

like, they say,

money, women & vacations dont ever get boring


@JDS u making a NCAAB thread this year ?

u should bro.

Yeah at some point good idea to isolate it from my best bets & track +/- units.

 

[purplegrape]

No football forecasting or market efficiency analysis over here yet. I keep getting USC under triggers which leads me to think it's a team that performs poorly with my market tracking betting strategy

 

[JDS]

No football forecasting or market efficiency analysis over here yet. I keep getting USC under triggers which leads me to think it's a team that performs poorly with my market tracking betting strategy

PG be trollin’

 

[KVB]

No football forecasting or market efficiency analysis over here yet. I keep getting USC under triggers which leads me to think it's a team that performs poorly with my market tracking betting strategy

Many a strategy has died waiting for a regression as the "due factor" heats up in the give and take markets.

Those at extremes always fukk shit up.

 

[harpo]

Played the Over. Probably Ends 3-0

 

[Tanko]

Wow. Its down to 28 total at heritage today.

 

[fishhead]

27.5

 

[fishhead]

IOWA is out of OL and TE's

Coaches asking for students to tryout today at 1pm at REC BUILDING

This is nuts!