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Saratoga Opening Day!

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rdalert447

rdalert447

Joined
Jun 5, 2022
Messages
3,112
Nice. Saw the beach comment. Been trying to get down to Naples for 2 years now. Hoping you own. Housing market is through the roof down there
Yeah. Bought in 2017, luckily. Beach we went to was down towards Naples on west coast. Not that far south but a 2 hour drive. Well worth it. Called Coquina Beach. Soft white sand, clear water, calm waves.
 

rdalert447

rdalert447

Joined
Jun 5, 2022
Messages
3,112
Race 3 was torn between Lerman, for old time's sake, and Trombetta. Trombetta has way better recent numbers so went with him:

$20 win #6 Seems to Whisper 8-1

$2 exbx 2-6

.50c tri 2,6/ALL/2,6

$1 P3 2,6/ALL/1
 

rdalert447

rdalert447

Joined
Jun 5, 2022
Messages
3,112
Race 5, Sharp has two entered. Guy has great numbers all around at Saratoga: first time over course, dirt sprints, MSW, and first time starters. All positive ROI. I went with the slightly longer half, figured Saez would get bet a bit more.

$20 win #1 Callie’s Passion 6-1

$2 Exbx 1-3

.50c tri 1,3/ALL/1,3

$1 P3 1,3/ALL/5
 

rdalert447

rdalert447

Joined
Jun 5, 2022
Messages
3,112
Race 7, Motion used to excel with first time starters on turf. Hasn’t connected in a few years, but I’ll never let him get away at a price in that mode.

$20 win #5 Meander 15-1

$2 DD 5/1,8

$1 P3 5/1,8/1,2,4
 

rdalert447

rdalert447

Joined
Jun 5, 2022
Messages
3,112
Race 8

$20 win #4 Handle the Truth 30-1

$2 exbx 4/7,9

$2 DD 4,7,9/6,7

Metivier doesn’t start many horses anymore, especially at Saratoga. But when he hit the NY scene years back, you would see similar betting patterns on his live ones. Horses morning lined at 30-1 and up, but opening in the 10-1 range. Then they would slowly drift up as the mtp would wind down. Early money like that on a small barn like Metivier’s can sometimes indicate that his inner circle is betting the horse hard for some reason. Led me to some nice scores on his rare winners. This one is following the same pattern.
 
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