Soccer steam plays

[quantumleap]

I've been debating playing these Club Friendly matches because I don't know how much effort teams will put in. I'll keep posting until I find it's not worth it.

This match had the +2 1/4 line as an underdog to start out earlier today.

Lyseng +1 1/2
Starting point:
+2 1/4 +123
Movement point:
+2 1/4 -213

 

[quantumleap]

Vikingur -182
Starting point:
pk -108
Movement point:
pk -182

 

[quantumleap]

Here's an example of a Club Friendly where I've decided to take the juice instead of the spread. Why should Cartagena go all out to win this match?

Cartagena -196
Starting point:
pk -133
Movement point:
pk -208

 

[quantumleap]

Here's an example of one that hasn't moved the full 70 points. However, it has moved 52 points at Pinnacle to pk -167 and it's still being offered at pk -112 at Heritage. Maybe I'll have to start another thread where I post picks with a difference between Pinnacle and Heritage of a certain amount.

Atletico Grau -112
Starting point:
pk -115
Movement point:
pk -167

 

[quantumleap]

Decided to go with the juice on the -1/2 instead of the -1.

Atlante -1/2 -172
Starting point:
-1/2 -123
Movement point:
-1/2 -192

 

[quantumleap]

I'm going to throw a tennis match in here. This one goes off in an hour and a half. Sometimes I get bit by betting early like this when the line reverses itself just before the match. However, Heritage is showing -175 while Pinnacle is showing -208 so I wanted to bet before the line changed. The line has also moved the minimum which leads me to believe it can continue moving.

Since I'm betting a lot of juice like this, I should count up my daily units instead of just W/L. The bets I make without juice are between +100 and -120. Only when a bet goes beyond -120 do I include the juice. So for the bets without juice, I'll assign the Heritage standard of -108.

Kuala Lumpur tennis
Thantub Suksumrarn -175
Starting point:
pk -119
Movement point:
pk -208

 

[quantumleap]

I'm going to go against my better judgement and go with a baseball pick here. I have crashed and burned with baseball, especially the LMB (Liga Mexicana de Béisbol). I just wanted to show a good example of the system and my new-found aspect of when Pinnacle differs from Heritage so much. It also has good movement, starting out in positive territory and going way up to -185 at one time making Heritage a 60 point advantage.

Sultanes de Monterrey +1 1/2 -125
Starting point:
+1 1/2 +124
Movement point:
+1 1/2 -185

 

[quantumleap]

Toronto FC pk -121
Starting point:
+1/2 -159
Movement point:
+1/2 -227

(68 points. It's not the system minimum of 70 points but I'm counting the fact that this only took 6 minutes to move 68 points. I skipped out taking a 68 point movement earlier in the day and it won.)

 

[quantumleap]

W) Brentford pk -154, +0.65
L) Lyseng +1 1/2, -1.00
P) Vikingur -182, +0.00
P) Cartagena -196, +0.00
W) Atletico Grau -112, +0.89
W) Atlante -1/2 -172, +0.58
W) Thantub Suksumrarn -175, +0.57 (easy money: 6-2, 6-2)
W) Sultanes de Monterrey +1 1/2 -125, +0.80
P) Toronto FC pk -121, +0.00 (Vancouver won in shootouts but Heritage only goes to the end of regulation.)

Today: 5-1-3, +2.49

YTD: 13-6-5

I'll figure units tomorrow on the previous 2 days I posted earlier.

 

[quantumleap]

Here are Monday's numbers:

W) Gjelleråsen -2 -127, +0.79
W) Eik-Tønsberg FK -1 1/2 -126, +0.79
P) Tupynambas +1 -138, +0.00
P) Bolivar/Wilstermann over 3 -138, +0.00
W) Marinos +20 -113, +0.88
L) Union Sunchales -1, -1.00

Monday: 3-1-2, +1.46

 

[quantumleap]

Sunday's numbers:

L) FCR Cluj +1/2 +111, -1.00
W) Strindheim -2 -105, +0.95
W) FC Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa -1/2 -101, +0.99
L) Union Huaral -1/2 -144, -1.00
L) Arabe Unido/Plaza Amador under 2 +121, -1.00
W) Guaros de Lara -6 1/2 -115, +0.87
W) Zamora -1/2 -144, 0.69
L)La Salle De Tarija -6, -1.00
W) LA Galaxy -1/2 -141, 0.71

Sunday: 5-4, +0.21

YTD at the end of Tuesday: 13-6-5, +4.16

 

[quantumleap]

Wednesday

Streymur -0.5 -117
Starting point:
-1/4 -135
Movement point:
-1/4 -217

S. Rzeszow -2 -123
Starting point:
-1 3/4 -119
Movement point:
-1 3/4 -192

 

[quantumleap]

Aris Thessalonikis -2 +100
Starting point:
-1 1/2-114
Movement point:
-1 1/2 -185

 

[quantumleap]

Meerbusch -121
+1/2-123
Movement point:
+1/2 -244

 

[quantumleap]

Napoli/Adana Demispor over 3 1/2
Starting point:
over 3 -128
Movement point:
over 3 -208

 

[quantumleap]

Maccabi Haifa +1/2 -113
Starting point:
+ -167
Movement point:
+1 -250

I feel like this is almost trying to "make a fit" into the system. While the line movement works in the system, I usually try to keep the start of the movement in the low 100's so I have an "apples to apples" comparison in line movement. Lines also move faster the higher you go. Maybe I should make it based upon % change.

 

[quantumleap]

I'm not counting this one in the results because it's a different system. It's one I mentioned earlier where Pinnacle has much worse odds than another book I use. Toros de Agua/Llaneros over 137 (Pinn has -147. This other book has -113)
Again, this will not count in this thread YTD because it's not the same system.

 

[quantumleap]

Gigantes/Cangrejeros under 157 -113
Starting point:
under 156 1/2 -112
Movement point:
under 156 1/2 -159

 

[quantumleap]

Imbabura +1 -196
Starting point:
+ -167
Movement point:
+1 -286

Sorry about the juice. I was hoping the line would go to +1/2 but it didn't. The line keeps getting worse and worse for this team.

 

[quantumleap]

Ind. Juniors +1 -196
Starting point:
+1 -139
Movement point:
+1 -263

Again, another juiced line but +1/2 was not available.