Vernon croy
4-Unit Play - #459 Philadelphia +3-110 over New Orleans (Sunday, September 22, 2024, 1:00 pm ET)
(LINE AVAILABLE AT CIRCA AND CAESARS)
Take Philadelphia ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and New Orleans is getting way too much respect in this game as they have played nobody so far this season. Meanwhile Philadelphia is coming off a loss against an Atlanta team they definitely should have beat but bad play calling cost them that game. Philadelphia was up six points with under 1.5 minutes left in the game, they decided to pass the ball and then allowed Atlanta to get a quick touchdown. Meanwhile the clock was their enemy. I definitely expect to see a fired-up Philadelphia team this week with a chip on their shoulder as they definitely should be 2-0 to start the season. Philadelphia is hands down the superior team in this matchup and I would not be shocked to see a double-digit victory by them on the road. New Orleans beat up on a very bad Carolina team that has averaged just 6.5 points per game this season and allowed 36.5 points per game including 47 points against this New Orleans team and 26 points against a mediocre Chargers team. Philadelphia has converted 37% of their third downs this season and that is against two very good defensive teams which New Orleans is not. Play Philadelphia ATS
7-Unit Play - #464 Tennessee -2.5-110 over Green Bay (Sunday, September 22, 2024, 1:00 pm ET)
Take Tennessee ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like Tennessee at home in this spot. Green Bay is coming off a victory in a game they definitely should have lost but Indianapolis had three interceptions and fumbled three times handing Green Bay the victory. I do expect Green Bay to struggle through the air on the road here Sunday after putting up just 122 passing yards against Indianapolis. Indianapolis did struggle to stop the run against Green Bay however Tennessee is much better defensively and they will be able to stop this one-dimensional offense. This is a hungry Tennessee team looking for their first victory of the season and I definitely expect them to step up defensively at home. Tennessee did play well defensively against New York allowing just 164 passing yards. Tennessee has allowed just 227 yards per game the season which ranks first defensively in the NFL and Green Bay has allowed 383 yards per game the season which ranks 27th defensively. Play Tennessee ATS
5-Unit Play - #477 Jacksonville +5.5-110 over Buffalo (Monday, September 23, 2024, 7:30 pm ET)
(LINE AVAILABLE AT SOUTH POINT AND CIRCA)
Take Jacksonville ATS as my top NFL pick for Monday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like Jacksonville in the spot on the road here Monday night. This Jacksonville team is much better than the record indicates and they are a hungry team coming into this game. Miami basically handed Buffalo that victory last week as they did hold Allen to just 139 passing yards but three interceptions and an injured Tagovailoa cost Miami who dominated the time of possession by almost 13 minutes. I actually have Jacksonville going into Buffalo and pulling off the upset here Monday night as this is an extremely tough spot for Buffalo. Lawrence will have a big game here Monday night against a Buffalo defense that did allow 28 points at home against Arizona. Buffalo's opponents have converted 50% of their third downs against them this season. Play Jacksonville ATS
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