Feb 9Las Vegas Cris5%[GLF] (7011) Patrick Cantlay at (7012) Justin Thomas
Time: 6:00 AM ESTPatrick Cantlay -120
Analysis:WM OPEN
FULL TOURNAMENT H2H #1
5% Cantlay (-120) over Thomas
5% writeup:
We use a model that correlates the success of the top 20 finishers at an event from the L3 years (rolling) to golfer profiles. TPC Scottsdale ranked out in the top 15 of all PGA courses in the following categories which most closely correlated to finishing position:
SG OTT (off the tee)
SG ARG (around the green)
SG APP (approach)
That was a handful to say there is no single area of the game here that is more important than another. Usually, one stat stands out strongly correlating to success; for example, last week, the highest-finishing golfers typically have a very strong around-the-green play. This week, the course demands you be an excellent ball striker (all 3 categories), but not necessarily a great putter.
Since the Scottish open last year, Thomas is almost exactly playing tour average golf. In the last two tournaments, he has lost strokes OTT, which means he needs to rely on his approach game and putting to make up for the failures on the tee box; Not a good situation for a player who has lost stokes putting in 6 of his last 8 measured events.
There is no hole in Cantlay's game. He gained OTT and ARG in 20 of his L23 events going back to August 2021. His approach game has gained in 11 of his L14 and two of those losses were less than 1/4 stroke.
Finally, Cantlay has played at WM only once: a 2nd place finish last year where he lost in a playoff to Scheffler.
Good to -135
4% to -140
3% to -145
2% to -150
Betting Line Provider: Consensus LineFeb 9Las Vegas Cris2%[GLF] (7023) Sungjae Im at (7024) Cameron Young
Time: 6:00 AM ESTSungjae Im -135
Analysis:WM OPEN (FREE PLAY)
FULL TOURNAMENT H2H #2
2% Sungjae Im (-132) over Cam Young
The good ball-striking version of SungJae Im is back. T18 the Amex and then T4 at Farmers behind gaining the 2nd most strokes on approach in the field.
At TPC Scottsdale, Sungjae has finished 17th, 34th, and 7th. Only once in those three years did he drop strokes in a single category: in other worde, he has gained on the field in 11 of 12 possible strokes-gained areas at the WM Open.
Good to -145;
betonline
What about Cam Young, didn't he just almost win? Yes, he did - he finished 2nd at the PIF Saudi International last week. This is a situational spot to fade Young at a course he has only played once. In his only appearance at TPC Scottsdale, he lost strokes on approach AND around the greens. His last 25 and 50 rounds have a negative around the green trend that begs him to be excellent with the irons. Can he do that, sure, but unlikely in this spot.
Betting Line Provider: BetOnline Feb 9 Las Vegas Cris3%[GLF] (7027) Matthew Fitzpatrick at (7028) Hideki Matsuyama
Time: 6:00 AM ESTHideki Matsuyama -127
Analysis:FULL TOURNAMENT H2H #3
3% Matsuyama (-127) over Fitzpatrick
Anyone with enough golf knowledge to do damage knows you play Hideki at Pheonix. Here are his finishing positions: 4, 2, 1, 1, 15, 16, 42, 8
He is almost a T20 lock and the most promising thing about him going into this week is that his is coming off a 9th place finish where he gained strokes in all measured categories; in fact, he has been a net positive in 9 straight events.
We cannot just lay wood on a guy because of good course history. The bigger factor of this bet is what Fitzpatrick revealed last week: he is dealing with a neck/back injury and playing through it. This plays out in the data, he lost more strokes with the irons last week than he has in over 3 years. His distance off the tee was much closer to the field average than the mashing he normally does. He is hurt and we will take an in-form Deki-bot over a 75-80% Fitzpatrick at a course Deki loves.
