Alright, I'm gonna pull the trigger
Bengals -4 -105
As I mentioned, I got in at -1.5 last week but not going to count that towards myofficial plays. So hopefully this is a successful double dip. I was hesitant to pull the trigger only because I have been off with the TNF games so far and again -- I don't love having much action on my team. But the more I looked at this match-up, the more confident I feel in Cincinnati covering.
This is not a good match-up for the Dolphins, regardless of where the game is played or the fact that this is a short week. The main challenge that they will have to overcome is whether or not they can get the ground game going against a pretty stout Bengals run defense. This unit has been pretty awesome stopping the run, even with a good player like Reader missing. If the Dolphins want to win this game, they are going to have to create better opportunities for their backs. This just doesn't seem like the type of game where they will be able to. Maybe a back cuts loose for a run or two to skew the numbers, but I just don't see them sustaining those 5-6 yard carries that would make a huge difference for them.
The Bengals have done a very nice job in recent history of limiting explosive receivers. Tyreek Hill should know this very well, which is why he is squawking this week about getting "revenge" for the Bengals owning him back in January. I feel like the Dolphins are going to have to rely heavily on their perimeter weapons to win this game, assuming that the running game plays out about as should be.
The hope for Miami is that their defensive line can get home on Burrow, taking advantage of Cincinnati's glaring weakness on the O-Line. I do think the Dolphins can create some pressure on Burrow, but I also think the offense for Cincinnati is starting to figure out some things/some ways to combat their line issues. If Burrow gets any sort of clean looks this game, I can't see Miami containing the Bengals skill position players. I think they are going to struggle with Chase, and I also think Mixon could make some plays this game as well -- perhaps catching screens if the Dolphins are aggressive blitzing.
If you line these two teams up on a neutral field, I think Cincinnati would have an edge. They are just a better team in my opinion, though Miami deserves all the credit in the world for the hot start.
