Tanko - 2024 MLB Plays

[Tanko]

Adding:
TB +101
MIL +111

 

[Tanko]

Just kidding.... about the "Stopped losing".

I make picks based on a lot of stats. You've seen the data I use in some of my posts where I detail why I made a pick (ERA, WRC, Run-diff , etc....). I realized that process was why I was winning early in the year (through about June) and was historically the case the last two years as well.

Then in late June or July each year, I'd start to fade. This year I faded hard. Went from +20 units to -20 units in about 6 weeks. Like I said it happened in 2022, and 2023 as well, just not as bad. I think most of my picks were favs during these periods.

I was too focused on finding sides that checked all the boxes and playing them. I started saying, wait, what if I focused a little more on games with closer odds (toss-ups) and tried to find more dogs to play.

I still occassionally pick a decent Fav (-140ish) but now I have a ton more dogs in my selections and its really turned things around.

@JDS

So the bottom line was that prior to my change in August I wasn't correctly valuing the plays. Most were winner but I was playing too many Favs. I had an evaluation system that was winning (through June) and just kept using it when I should have been weighing the odds better.

Piss-poor capping on my part.
But, I've changed course.

 

[JDS]

@JDS

So the bottom line was that prior to my change in August I wasn't correctly valuing the plays. Most were winner but I was playing too many Favs. I had an evaluation system that was winning (through June) and just kept using it when I should have been weighing the odds better.

Piss-poor capping on my part.
But, I've changed course.

I like the fact that you’re learning with your losses & your adjusting your handicapping methods to find winners. You put in a lot more work than most of us I will say that.

 

[sunshine11]

Go Rays

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Baseball card companies be fast a fuk these days.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1836917526057648459

 

[Tanko]

Baseball card companies be fast a fuk these days.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1836917526057648459

They saw this coming.....
They saw it coming in early June.

 

[Tanko]

Today 3-2 +$104

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Today 3-2 +$104