Guys,
MIN/UCLA game looks very intriguing. Line dropped from -6 to -4.5 MIN on Wednesday morning.
Limits at many books increased about that time from $20k to $30k so its likely from some sharp action.
I'm leaning hard on the Gophers side of the ball. They have 3 losses. The firs was in week 1 vs NC by 2 points. The second to Iowa that they lost late in the 3Q and 4Q to the great Iowa defense (top 5). The third to MICH by 3 that if you remember the onside kick call could have gone their way.
On the other side, over the last 4 weeks, UCLA has lost by:
- Penn St. -16 margin
- Oregon -21
- LSU -17
- Indiana -29
I'm not saying MIN is in the ranks of the top 3 of those games but they are comparable to Indiana.
This team is good under coach Fleck. They beat USC last week and should be able to win by at least a TD or more this week.
I have this spread at -7.5 to -8.0 MIN on one estimate and -10 to -13 on another....
I definitely see some value on this game aound +4-5% EV at -4.5.
WOULD LOVE TO HEAR OTHER'S TAKE ON THIS GAME.