Tanko - CFB Plays 2024

[JDS]

At 1st glance love the Gators this week +4.5 -110 if they start quarterback DJ Lagway.

 

[Tanko]

The steam on that Memphis line is strange haven't handicapped the card yet, is someone out for them ?

I'm thinking a lot of people believe FSU will turn it around at some point. I'm not convinced.

I like the 7 and wanted 7.5 but I'm not sure it will get there. It opened at 6.5 and dropped to 5 (on some sharp betting) and then popped to 7 -115 (probably on some sharper betting) and is now at 7 -105 so I think its peaked.

That initial move from 6.5 to 5 caught my eye that some sharps like Memphis or they think FSU really isn't that good.

It might be a rough play but we're going against FSU if the lines are decent and until they show me they can play football.

 

[JDS]

I'm thinking a lot of people believe FSU will turn it around at some point. I'm not convinced.

I like the 7 and wanted 7.5 but I'm not sure it wil get there. It opened at 6.5 and dropped to 5 (on some sharp betting) and then poped to 7 -115 (probably on some sharper betting) and is now at 7 -105 so I think its peaked.

That initial move from 6.5 to 5 caught my eye that some sharps like Memphis or they think FSU really aren't that good.

It might be a rough play but we're going against FSU if the lines are decent and until they show me they can play football.

I agree I am waiting on my NFL Miami -2.5 to finalize until I make a decision for Saturday, one game at a time for me when you bet these amounts.

 

[Tanko]

I agree I am waiting on my NFL Miami -2.5 to finalize until I make a decision for Saturday, one game at a time for me when you bet these amounts.

Dropping tickets like you are, you should play one at a time.
Those are some serious dollars IMO.

 

[RRsilver]

Week 1 5-4 +$67
Week 2 6-5 +$66
Overall 11-9 +$133


Week 3
E. Carol +2.5 -104
FIU +6 -108
Hawaii -4.5 -105
Memphis +7 -105
Rice +5 -108
S. Carolina +7 -105
Buffalo -4.5 -108
UCLA +2.5 -103


Not sure but I seem to be liking the dogs heavily this week.
GL all.

I can't put my bets in this early. I know you are trying to beat the closing number and it is a great strategy.
I would go over it all again later in the week and change my mind. I'm crazy I know.

 

[JDS]

Dropping tickets like you are, you should play one at a time.
Those are some serious dollars IMO.

We'll see how long I can stay above water, but at the very least this is a fun experience for me. I'm going have to continue to win though or I will have to lover my unit size.

 

[RRsilver]

Dropping tickets like you are, you should play one at a time.
Those are some serious dollars IMO.

Serious as a heart attack, because I would have a heart attack if I lost!!!!

 

[Tanko]

I can't put my bets in this early. I know you are trying to beat the closing number and it is a great strategy.
I would go over it all again later in the week and change my mind. I'm crazy I know.

There is are still opportunities that arise later in the week.


CLV (closing line value) is one of my measure of performance. I need to get a passing grade or the wife will kick me out. She's a tough one.

 

[renegade]

At 1st glance love the Gators this week +4.5 -110 if they start quarterback DJ Lagway.

This jumped out at me too

 

[Tanko]

At 1st glance love the Gators this week +4.5 -110 if they start quarterback DJ Lagway.

I like FLA too.
My calcs say to get Fla at 5.5 but I doubt it gets that high.
GL

 

[JDS]

I like FLA too.
My calcs say to get FSU at 5.5 but I doubt it gets that high.
GL

You mean UF* right ?

 

[Tanko]

You mean UF* right ?

Yeah.... typo on line 2.

 

[Tanko]

Week 1 5-4 +$67
Week 2 6-5 +$66
Overall 11-9 +$133


Week 3
E. Carol +2.5 -104
FIU +6 -108
Hawaii -4.5 -105
Memphis +7 -105
Rice +5 -108
S. Carolina +7 -105
Buffalo -4.5 -108
UCLA +2.5 -103


Not sure but I seem to be liking the dogs heavily this week.
GL all.

On 2nd thought, I really don't like the S. Carol line I got that much. If I'd studied a little harder I would probably have passed on it but, its on my card to so it counts.

 

[JDS]

On 2nd thought, I really don't like the S. Carol line I got that much. If I'd studied a little harder I would probably have passed on it but, its on my card to so it counts.

What do you think of small road fav Indiana -2.5 -110 another game I am considering at 1st glance.

 

[Tanko]

What do you think of small road fav Indiana -2.5 -110 another game I am considering at 1st glance.

I'm on UCLA +2.5. Pretty solid for me too.
I have these teams about even and if I get UCLA + pts + home... I see it as easy money.

 

[JDS]

I'm on UCLA +2.5. Pretty solid for me too.
I have these teams about even and if I get UCLA + pts + home... I see it as easy money.

Oh sorry I miss that one on your card lol ok thank you for your opinion.

 

[Franz555]

I had to go to page 4 to find this winning thread

Tanko , Just wondering if you had any thoughts on the Arizona St @ Texas St game tonight ? Essentially a pick'em. I was leaning heavily to Arizona St , but the line has moved from -3 to Even or +1 @ some books. Not sure what I'm missing

Thanks

 

[Tanko]

I had to go to page 4 to find this winning thread

Tanko , Just wondering if you had any thoughts on the Arizona St @ Texas St game tonight ? Essentially a pick'em. I was leaning heavily to Arizona St , but the line has moved from -3 to Even or +1 @ some books. Not sure what I'm missing

Thanks

I mentioned this to JRgum. The line move is shocking. Texas St is better with their new coach (2nd season) and they kept 75% of their Offense and 75% of their Defense from last year.

Ariz returns only 25% of their Defense so Texas St. may be able to move the ball tonight. I guess that decimated Ariz St. defense. They had a great FPI rating in 2023 +12.5. Texas St was at -6.5 to end 2023. Seems like they are closer to even this year.

I have this game as Ariz St -1 so the +1 is enticing but not quite enough for me to pull the trigger yet.


Also, there really isn't a home field advantage at Texas St. I've been to many games there. The students leave at halftime regardless of the game so half the stadium empties out. Even in their game last week vs their arch rival UTSA, the students all left.

 

[Franz555]

I mentioned this to JRgum. The line move is shocking. Texas St is better with their new coach (2nd season) and they kept 75% of their Offense and 75% of their Defense from last year.

Ariz returns only 25% of their Defense so Texas St. may be able to move the ball tonight. I guess that decimated Ariz St. defense. They had a great FPI rating in 2023 +12.5. Texas St was at -6.5 to end 2023. Seems like they are closer to even this year.

I have this game as Ariz St -1 so the +1 is enticing but not quite enough for me to pull the trigger yet.


Also, there really isn't a home field advantage at Texas St. I've been to many games there. The students leave at halftime regardless of the game so half the stadium empties out. Even in their game last week vs their arch rival UTSA, the students all left.

That's great insight. Appreciate it

I was impressed at Arizona State's Cam Skattebo running for 262 yds on 33 carries at Mississippi St. The other notable was a slim Texas St win against Lamar 34 - 27. If you can control the line of scrimmage , it leaves Texas State's offense watching from the sidelines.

 

[Tanko]

Week 3
E. Carol +2.5 -104
FIU +6 -108
Hawaii -4.5 -105
Memphis +7 -105
Rice +5 -108
S. Carolina +7 -105
Buffalo -4.5 -108
UCLA +2.5 -103

Adding:
Arizona State +3 -113