BMR Social
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- Apr 4, 2022
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By: Doug Upstone
The beat of the playoffs continues in the NBA and NHL and each day brings something new and to look forward to, and we talk about both elements. Betting news in the NFL is not good for some players. It was announced today college football, like baseball, will move along at a quicker pace this upcoming season. This and a plethora of useful better information.
About Last Night…
NBA
Fascinating night for bettors Thursday in the NBA Playoffs. Brooklyn and Philadelphia went at it all game long. Late in the 4th quarter, the 76ers made a move to have a chance to cover the -4.5 but they were not getting there. With 6.1 seconds left, the Nets had a chance to tie down three and inbound the ball, but a bad pass and a steal by De'Anthony Melton made Philly a five-point leader and they survived a Brooklyn three-pointer for the cover.
Bettors holding tickets on the Suns at -3 and Clippers at +3 were stunned to hear hours before the game that Kawhi Leonard was “out”. The spread jumped to 7.5 causing confusion on both sides. The Clippers supplied a game effort but lost 129-124 and Phoenix was the first team in the Round of 16 in the playoffs to lose against the number while winning, leaving the SU winner at 18-1 ATS since last Saturday. Still, there was more.
There were two schools of thought on the Kings vs. Warriors matchup. Either the Kings were too good a road team to lose against the spread not facing Draymond Green or the Warriors would rally around “their guy” and win and cover. Turned out the latter was true, which sets up an intriguing Game 4.
NHL
All four Thursday home favorites lost Game 1 of their series and they were favored to bounce back. Dallas and Vegas rolled and Colorado hung on against Seattle, but New Jersey was blasted again 5-1 by the Rangers. With New York having two home games next, they should sweep the Devils.
MLB
With New York having Max Scherzer suspended for 10 days for an illegal substance in his glove and the Mets having several other players injured, they won at San Francisco 9-4 as -120 favorites and are on a 7-1 roll. The Metropolitans are scoring 6.4 RPG vs RH starters. Impressive.
The Dodgers are fumbling a bit to start the season, but James Outman is doing a great job at the plate and in right field. Outman hit two homers on his first trip to Wrigley Field and his second was a grand slam in the top of the ninth to give L.A. a 6-2 lead which they kept. That long ball placed Outman in an elite class.
Trendy Talk
NBA
- Boston is 15-1 ATS versus teams with a shooting percentage defense of 48% or more in the 2nd half of the season.
- New York is 15-6 ATS revenging a same-season loss.
- Denver is 3-11 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
- Brooklyn is 1-9 ATS at home after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games.
- Miami is 4-12 ATS versus teams outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game.
- Memphis is 1-13 ATS as a road underdog of six points or less.
- Sacramento is 16-6 ATS in road games revenging a same-season loss.
NHL
- Carolina is 11-1 after winning their previous game in overtime.
- Boston is 19-2 as a road favorite of -200 or less this season.
- Dallas is 7-0 Over after scoring 6 goals or more in their previous game.
- Los Angeles is 13-4 Over when tied in a playoff series.
- Winnipeg is 8-0 Over in the 3rd game of a playoff series.
- Toronto is 16-5 Over after a blowout win by 3 goals or more.
- New Jersey is 0-6 after two straight losses by four goals or more.
- Seattle is 5-15 in home games when playing against a team with a winning record.
MLB
- Milwaukee is 8-0 when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
- Houston is 12-20 (-20.2 Units) after scoring eight runs or more.
- Philadelphia is 23-7 Under revenging a loss as a home favorite.
- N.Y. Mets are 21-5 Over after a two-game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more.
- Domingo German and the Yankees are 18-3 in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in his career.
What to Watch For and Win (Hopefully)
NBA
There is a venue shift for the NBA Playoffs for Games 3 and 4 this weekend and we’ll cover all the exciting action and have our top NBA picks.
MLB
There are several new series starting Friday and we’ll cover as many as possible and have free MLB picks to boot.
NHL
The Stanley Cup Playoffs betting odds change dramatically as we head into Game 3’s with a change of locations and we’ll break everything down for you and have expert opinions and NHL picks.
Soccer
Our expert has this weekend's European soccer picks analysis.
XFL
It is the final week of the XFL regular season and we break down the playoff picture and who needs to win in Week 10.
The Buzz
NFL – Gambling Suspensions Announced
According to ESPN.com, Four Lions players, including 2022 first-round pick Jameson Williams, were among five players leaguewide to be suspended for violating the NFL's gambling policy after an investigation by the league. Lions wide receiver Quintez Cephus and safety C.J. Moore have been suspended indefinitely for betting on NFL games, as was Washington Commanders defensive end Shaka Toney. They can reapply for reinstatement after one year, although Detroit announced that its two players have been released. Second-year wide receivers Williams and Stanley Berryhill are being suspended for six games each for mobile betting that occurred at the Lions' Allen Park facility. These two did not bet on NFL games, the team said.
NBA – Stephen Smith (no A. here) Has Kawhi Takedown
In a description right out of the WWE, ESPN’s Smith said this Friday about Kawhi Leonard. "Kawhi Leonard should be on the list of one of the worst superstars this game has ever seen... When you talk about a superstar that is unreliable, I want somebody to point me out [to] somebody more flagrant than him."
He’s not entirely wrong and he’s turned out to be a bad signing along with Paul George for the Clippers because those two will never be healthy enough for a season and playoff run even with now conventional - Load Management. Still, a hard take that keeps Smith in the headlines.
College Football – Looking to Speed Up Games
Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports reports, NCAA Division I and Division II football are going away from stopping the clock after first downs (except for in the final two minutes of each half).
With the success baseball has enjoyed in having shorter games, college football will look to do the same and have more games start on time for the next viewing window instead of having contests go past the 3 ½ hour window.
Nonetheless, others still have questions about how this will play out.
Top Betting System
NBA Playoffs
Play against underdogs when trailing in a playoff series (Atlanta, Minnesota, Brooklyn, and L.A. Clippers), with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. These teams are 7-30 ATS, losing by 14.5 points a game.
Out The Door
NHL – Maple Leafs Jekyll and Hyde Act
Toronto is the first team in NHL history to allow 7+ goals in Game 1 of a playoff series but then score 7+ goals in Game 2. You have to love the Maple Leafs in Round 1 of the playoffs!
MLB – Madison Bumgarner Shown the Door
At 33, Madison Bumgarner is not good enough to be a starting pitcher anymore. Though he was serving up room service meatball pitches, it still was a surprise to see Arizona cut him and eat a reported 34 million dollars.
With how Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain faded fast from all the extra innings they pitched during the World Series run of 2010-2014, all three were in serious decline by age 30 or 31, hardly old for a starting pitcher. Each would probably say it was worth it, but it cost them money at the same time.
Media – ESPN’s Charly Arnolt Leaves For OutKick.com
I picked this up for one reason and one reason only. When someone leaves the media to join Outkick.com, they do so for a reason. Love or hate Outkick, you know what is coming.
I’m not going to get into Arnolt’s reason for leaving, you can read that here - https://awfulannouncing.com/espn/charly-arnolt-stifled-transgender-lia-thomas.html - but one quote tells what she is thinking.
“I’m a very opinionated person — I always have been,” Arnolt said during her Fox News appearance. “That’s something I really love about myself and I just felt like at ESPN I was a little bit stifled.”
Don’t we all love the sound of our own voice?
What Bettors Like – Play or Fade?
NBA Top 4 Bets by Percentage (Highest First) (43-30-1 Record / 23-12 Run)
- Celtics
- Nuggets/T-Wolves Over
- Lakers (highest for tomorrow)
- Bucks/Heat Over
MLB - Top 5 Bets by Percentage (Highest First) (26-15 Record)
- Orioles
- Angels
- Twins
- White Sox/Rays Over
- Cubs
NHL Top 4 Bet by Percentage (Highest First) (41-29 Record and 17-8 Move)
- Bruins
- Bruins/Panthers Over
- Islanders
- Rangers (highest for tomorrow)
