Brock Landers
- Joined
- Oct 17, 2021
- Messages
- 2,563
Way over thoughtThat Total dropping and under pressure to go further, moving away from my stacking percentages forecast.
Some Utah injuries and word getting out that Oregon St. is a tough matchup are starting to weigh on the market.
While this will Utah's toughest test so far it will also be the toughest defense Oregon St has played. The OVER is a tough bet pick, perhaps the toughest for this game.
My stacking percentages forecast has 66 points being scored here while the non predictive public gauge has 49 total points with Utah winning by 3.
This line has dropped and is dropping but 43.5 was enough for me, injuries and physicality or not.
I'm countering the market pressure and instead rushing to pick up UNDER 44 if 45's were missed in an effort to gain an edge over Pinny, I'm following the Forecast here and picking up...
Utah/Oregon St. OVER 43.5 (-105)
This is quite the contrarain play and I'm making it seemingly early as the line could pressure further. It's come onto 45 from 45.5, then off of 45 to 44.5 the onto then now off of 44.
If the pressure continued, next stop could just plain be 41. Even BOL went to 43, which I would not consider significant enough. I just assume take OVER 43.5 (-105) instead of OVER 43 (-115) in this intance.
I think there could be support here and went ahead with the Contrarian OVER play at 43.5.
Good Luck tonight, whatever your bet.
Oregon st was the only call here
