Washington +188

[KVB]

You know, I just play a number and don’t necessarily pick a team, but since I’ve picked a team, I’m deathly afraid of Michigan.

Defense usually wins championships and Michigan looks tight and could have what it takes to beat Washington but I don’t think they’ve seen an offense like this yet this year.

Here’s to hoping the Washington offensive line can get the best of them just enough to hang.

 

[JDS]

You know, I just play a number and don’t necessarily pick a team, but since I’ve picked a team, I’m deathly afraid of Michigan.

Defense usually wins championships and Michigan looks tight and could have what it takes to beat Washington but I don’t think they’ve seen an offense like this yet this year.

Here’s to hoping the Washington offensive line can get the best of them just enough to hang.

That’s the fucking million dollar question with your last point KVB’er we shall see

 

[KingKolzig]

Westover listed in props. Give him a pain injection a calf isnt a knee

 

[KVB]

Money in on the -5 across the board. Some of that hitting the -5.5 too. It's not a lot as far as price and half point movement, but there was some breadth to it. Market on a broader reacting to it.

It can be easier for the market to react broadly with less significant spread numbers but 5 is nothing to shake a stick at.

It's within the top 15 margins of victory in my sets of nearly 14,000 games over nearly the last 20 years and is comparitive to, say, an 8.

 

[biprob]

Yeah I remember, that’s the game this team started turning things around again playing like they did earlier in the season.

Beyond putrid that it's down to +291. Was +323 this morning & still was able to get +500 last wk. At least my WD came though so I was able to get the 1k bonus just now but it's brutal going ALL IN at a basically "straight 2 team parlay" price. This would get the combined payout to $57,500 but not sure if I should do that or try to up my balance another $640 to get it to $60k. Your thoughts Jerky?

 

[JDS]

Beyond putrid that it's down to +291. Was +323 this morning & still was able to get +500 last wk. At least my WD came though so I was able to get the 1k bonus just now but it's brutal going ALL IN at a basically "straight 2 team parlay" price. This would get the combined payout to $57,500 but not sure if I should do that or try to up my balance another $640 to get it to $60k. Your thoughts Jerky?View attachment 24952

I think you’re in a good position already with the two favorites in line to meet each other, I wouldn’t add to it the value is gone. I wonder when the last time both AFC and NFC favorites met in the Super Bowl any idea ? Maybe it was last year in-fact don’t remember.

 

[JDS]

I just hit it for another unit f*** it +188.

 

[biprob]

I think you’re in a good position already with the two favorites in line to meet each other, I wouldn’t add to it the value is gone. I wonder when the last time both AFC and NFC favorites met in the Super Bowl any idea ? Maybe it was last year in-fact don’t remember.

There was a stretch where it happened 4 out of 5 yrs but it hasn't happened in 6 yrs so hopefully it's "due". The value is absolute like you said but the goal is to get the balance to 80k & WD 30k (even if this hits, 65k would be best case so I'd have to win about 15k betting ) Good problem to have & obv this is hardly a but I want to put 15k in the bank & I would honestly never in a million yrs mention what I'd do with the other 15k. (It's honestly that BAD but I digress) Short story long..this is why I'm gonna keep adding on despite the dead value.

 

[biprob]

I just hit it for another unit f*** it +188.

View attachment 24953

LFG!!!!! Seriously considering tailing but I'd feel like a "JJ Gold level cooler" if I do & it loses so I'll lay off & hope it gets there.

 

[JDS]

There was a stretch where it happened 4 out of 5 yrs but it hasn't happened in 6 yrs so hopefully it's "due". The value is absolute like you said but the goal is to get the balance to 80k & WD 30k (even if this hits, 65k would be best case so I'd have to win about 15k betting ) Good problem to have & obv this is hardly a but I want to put 15k in the bank & I would honestly never in a million yrs mention what I'd do with the other 15k. (It's honestly that BAD but I digress) Short story long..this is why I'm gonna keep adding on despite the dead value.

View attachment 24956

Great info thanks Dougie !

 

[KVB]

Money in on the -5 across the board. Some of that hitting the -5.5 too. It's not a lot as far as price and half point movement, but there was some breadth to it. Market on a broader reacting to it.

It can be easier for the market to react broadly with less significant spread numbers but 5 is nothing to shake a stick at.

It's within the top 15 margins of victory in my sets of nearly 14,000 games over nearly the last 20 years and is comparitive to, say, an 8.

There is definitely some support at 5.5 out there.

About an hour before my post I quoted here Circa dealt a +6 and an hour before that there were some +6s in NJ.

That would be a nice number to hold.

 

[biprob]

Great info thanks Dougie !

No doubt jerky!
Rn just looking for a solid $625 bet to get that payout to 60k without laying dumb juice. Got lucky with this yesterday up a break point to even get it to $2559 but these are way too risky to rely on.

 

[biprob]

Great info thanks Dougie !

Seeing a lot of WU slips so hopefully that's a good sign!

 

[samsncharge99]

good luck. hard to fade, but I like Michigan, but I don't have nearly that much on it, so rooting for you

 

[BigJay]

I’m on the other side with Mich ML tonight Jerky.

Think their run game will be a big factor. For whatever reason Texas got away from it against Washington when they were getting more than six yards a clip in the first half. It cost them.

Also Michigan’s defense will be unlike anything Washington has seen this year. Pennix may prove me wrong but I’ve seen him look suspect at times when he’s pressured. Texas couldn’t sustain a rush and he exposed their sec

 

[JDS]

I’m on the other side with Mich ML tonight Jerky.

Think their run game will be a big factor. For whatever reason Texas got away from it against Washington when they were getting more than six yards a clip in the first half. It cost them.

Also Michigan’s defense will be unlike anything Washington has seen this year. Pennix may prove me wrong but I’ve seen him look suspect at times when he’s pressured. Texas couldn’t sustain a rush and he exposed their sec

All good BigJay, thanks for chiming in with your perspective. This moneyline keeps stretching +190 now, could be +200 by kickoff.

 

[KVB]

I’ve seen him look suspect at times when he’s pressured

Correct, like mosty QBs, his success rate drops significantly when he is forced to move out of the pocket.

On the other side, Mich's QB, I believe, leads the league in QBR and percentage while on the move.

 

[BigJay]

I just hit it for another unit f*** it +188.

View attachment 24953

“Jerky you MF, you made your point let Michigan pull back!”

Jerky Gruber - “Hit it again!”

 

[JDS]

“Jerky you MF, you made your point let Michigan pull back!”

Jerky Gruber - “Hit it again!”

That was so perfect

 

[JDS]

Correct, like mosty QBs, his success rate drops significantly when he is forced to move out of the pocket.

On the other side, Mich's QB, I believe, leads the league in QBR and percentage while on the move.

In my write up I mebtioned the fact MPJ has a unique skill set to keep his eyes down the field while eluding the pressure, going to be interesting to see how things unfold tonight.