What early games are posters looking at to bet today

[KVB]

This was the thread where I put that forecast. I usually put the Total to as it's a part of the Forecast creation.

I had this a 9 run game with Balty winning 53.01% of the time, thus TB winning 46.99% of the time. That converts to the -112.83 no vig moneyline.

But hey, Balty at plus money there, at home, doesn't sound bad. Not suprised the line moved that way. It's Tampa, those percentages aren't high, so I'm guessing it's a good game down the stretch.

Not sure about going LIVE if anyone gets a lead, soemthing tells me, even though TB has guys on base right now, that an early pre 6th inning isn't likely.

 

[KVB]

...But the question remains, if something is consistently a high fav. and then all of a sudden one game, they drop to a very short fav. (not a dog) like -115 or -120 , dosent that indicate, the fav. is going to lose ?...

Not always, but there is usually a reason the lines change for that team. There's a good chance they are going to be facing steeper competition, that's one thing.

But more to the point is that even if they face a better team, they end up being a smaller favorite because, like today's example, making that team on a win streak a dog can really attract attention.

But each game has it's own number that helps drive where it opens, moves, and closes. Forecasts and bettor opinion can shape that number.

Sometimes it's not obvous why all of the sudden the team is smaller favorite, but, like today, I usually find it in the numbers. Sometimes what we are seeing and feeling, the reality we are all living in, deviates far from the actual structure and numbers that shape the market.

That's usually when a line "doesn't make sense" or "feels like a trap" but often there's a more simple explanation.

It's one thing I love about making a range of Forecasts, they can tell me what the oddsmaker is setting the bookmaker up for and can have a real big picture effect.

 

[KVB]

...Not sure about going LIVE if anyone gets a lead, soemthing tells me, even though TB has guys on base right now, that an early pre 6th inning isn't likely.

Meant to say early pre 6th inning lead isn't likely.

TB got out anyway, still 0-0

 

[KVB]

In the NBA this year the Warriors had, from early on, a very wacky home vs road record, they were polar opposites leading to a near .500 team. The were losing almost every game on the road and winning almost every game at home.

The difference between home and road Warrios capping wise showed up in the market and led to a ton of confusion through a good portion of the season on why lines were what they were.

 

[carolinakid]

i want to jump on balt, but it hard going against tb for me

 

[pete0]

i want to jump on balt, but it hard going against tb for me

same, but this is the case of a good team vs a good team .

10-5 on road team , vs a home team 10-5 at home.
so that comparison cannot be made.

im just intrigued by such a low no. and going with my gut, BAL wins.

Books, usually lead the avg. gambler towards the popular pick-y FAV.

 

[carolinakid]

balt 2-0 and still batting

 

[jjgold]

Guys just look at stats and think they have something on every game

 

[pete0]

Guys just look at stats and think they have something on every game

THIS^

Its psychological as well...

"Oh the raptors are 11-3 ATS in their last 14... they're 5-0 SU on the road after 2 days rest... etc. etc.
i'm taking the raptors -12"

 

[pete0]

balt 2-0 and still batting

Yes Sir!

My Cubs & Knicks came thru as well.

now for the warriors to win and it'll be a 4-0 day for me.

but, honestly, i'm kind of scared

 

[carolinakid]

gl with GS tonite

 

[KVB]

THIS^

Its psychological as well...

"Oh the raptors are 11-3 ATS in their last 14... they're 5-0 SU on the road after 2 days rest... etc. etc.
i'm taking the raptors -12"

Using ATS stats like that is like trying to mark a good fishing spot so you can come back to it by putting a big X on the bottom of your boat.

Not saying they aren't useful, but that's a poor way of going about it. It simply doesn't tell you enough and represents a constatnly moving target.

 

[carolinakid]

a lot of time the line is a mind game too