Why Has Balls To Bet Old Man Scherzer Tonight?

[KVB]

Sometimes it can be deceiving. Does this tight 50-50, or so, trading really warrant some signal that the best book in the world is taking a position in Texas? Trying to take some Zona dollars?

So what really happened here? With the late blink.

Was it that the market was taking Texas money and not showing us so that we couldn't jump on Zona, all the while keeping Texas on sale?

Did they take a 50-50, or so, tight ass high volume betting situation and actually try to turn it into a position? It's very possible as late blinks almost always happen for a reason.

Once again, there's a corner of my office that says Arizona is winning this game.

 

[KVB]

The "market reader" portion of my office, the one that deals with situational and money flow issues (and still probability), would say to you that Zona is winning this game.

Once again, there's a corner of my office that says Arizona is winning this game.

If Texas takes the lead I will very likely be taking and ordering Arizona LIVE. We have to see the number first.

 

[carolinakid]

i took Texas +1.5 here in the bot of the 2nd innings

 

[KVB]

If Texas takes the lead I will very likely be taking and ordering Arizona LIVE. We have to see the number first.

Texas gets a guy on second in the 3rd and Zona +130 pops up at BOL. That was enough.

I tried to hit it, but I couldn't get it.

Now it's -115.

 

[carolinakid]

Texas 1-0

 

[carolinakid]

boom Texas 3-0

 

[KVB]

I picked up ARIZONA +325

Let's let that simmer for a bit.

 

[carolinakid]

i like my +4.5 now

 

[KVB]

Today, for game three, I have Texas once again slightly favored to win about 52.13% of the time, to Zona's 47.87% of the time.

That's a vig free line of about -108/+108 with Texas, the road team, on the -108.

Here the closing lines on BMR odds and the no vig conversion at some well know books. This was a very high volume game and let's see how my -/+108 stacked up...

BM/betCRIS...-113/+103 = -/+107.69 no vig
BOL...-115/+105 = -/+109.65 no vig
BAS...-114/+104 = -/+108.67 no vig
Pinny...-109/+101 = -/+104.83 no vig

Notice how Pinny's no vig line, which sat for awhile at that number before the big market blink serves as a limit for the Zona dog price elsewhere across the board.

I'm happy with my World Series capping so far.

 

[jjgold]

mother fukker sharp

 

[Pimike]

On Texas myself

 

[Pimike]

Chapman

lol

 

[carolinakid]

that was a great play in the bot of the 8th for texas to only give up 1

 

[jjgold]

That was a real big win for Texas

 

[carolinakid]

yes and i did not need the +1.5 i thought this may come down to extra innings tonite

 

[KVB]

yes and i did not need the +1.5 i thought this may come down to extra innings tonite

Yeah, can't believe the +325 LIVE never got in the money. Even with Zona pressing, the lowest Texas got was -375. I bought too low and couldn't overcome the vig. I wasn't going to sell back, but couldn't have if I wanted to anyway.

 

[Pimike]

Texas 2 injuries are an issue

bull pen game tomorrow.

 

[KVB]

Today's Forecast and analysis (originally posted in the daily chat thread)...

Here we go again, again.

Today, for game 4, I have Arizona slightly favored to win the game 52.83% of the time to Texas' 47.17% win probablitly.

That's a vig free line of about -112/+112 with Zona, the home team, on the -112.

Zona opened early last night at even to plus money, from +100 at BOL and +102 at Pinny and even a generous +105 at BM/betCris.

I am not surprised the Zona dog money was bought up early moving the market, once again, towards my line with Zona now pushing -109 and -110 in those houses. Early, lower limit trading at BOL pushed Zona up to -112 before Texas found support bringing Zona back to -109 and -108 areas.

Pinny is currently dealing the same -104.83 no vig line as the close of yesterday's game only this time Zona is favored there, instead of Texas yesterday.

We saw value at plus money on Arizona eary when facing my no vig line but that value is now gone. I own some early trades with Zona at those levels, but none past +100.

Let's see what type of movement can be left in what's sure to be, like yesterday, a very tight market.

 

[KVB]

Pinny's Texas +101 is gone.

Like yesterday, I can say it again, any plus money out there, on either side, will get snatched.

 

[carolinakid]

i will give it a couple of innings like last night and looking to get a good play with texas again