Why is nobody posting these plays??

[Pimike]

I really like this Miami team

 

[easy_street]

I really like this thread (and that Miami team).

Bookies constantly headfake us bettors. I refuse to believe bookies ALWAYS want equal action on both sides. Sometimes they don't hang up their real lines because they know public betting will go the wrong way.

 

[JDS]

I really like this thread (and that Miami team).

Bookies constantly headfake us bettors. I refuse to believe bookies ALWAYS want equal action on both sides. Sometimes they don't hang up their real lines because they know public betting will go the wrong way.

Agreed.

 

[pete0]

ok another similar looking situation.

a higher ranked team marquette No.10 AT lower ranked NO. 21 Uconn.
marquette has a better record too. conf 11-2 vs conf. 7-6 by Uconn.

first glance ? marquette should win right ? then why is Uconn favored?

i'm playing Uconn. at Home ( + revenge spot )

 

[JDS]

ok another similar looking situation.

a higher ranked team marquette No.10 AT lower ranked NO. 21 Uconn.
marquette has a better record too. conf 11-2 vs conf. 7-6 by Uconn.

first glance ? marquette should win right ? then why is Uconn favored?

i'm playing Uconn. at Home ( + revenge spot )

Let me look at that game you have peaked my interest.

 

[Tanko]

ok another similar looking situation.

a higher ranked team marquette No.10 AT lower ranked NO. 21 Uconn.
marquette has a better record too. conf 11-2 vs conf. 7-6 by Uconn.

first glance ? marquette should win right ? then why is Uconn favored?

i'm playing Uconn. at Home ( + revenge spot )

This might provide some insight into why UConn is favored in this game.

KenPom Rankings: UConn #6 and Marq #8. Projected score UConn 78-74.
BartTorvik Rankings: UConn #8 and Marq #10. Score UConn 80-75
Sagarin Rankings: UConn #11 and Marq #14. UConn Score 91-87

All of the ratings/projections above are from statistic based data while the AP is someone's opinion.
The line is UConn -4 which is right in line with the projections above.

Not criticizing. Just offering some insight.
I appreciate your insight.
I'm leaning UConn tonight as well.
GL

 

[easy_street]

How do KenPom and Sagarin get those projected scores? Like how do cappers get scores from rankings and statistics? Is it simulations? algorithms? do they give certain stats points and then divide? lol it's so crazy how cappers get projected scores

 

[Tanko]

How do KenPom and Sagarin get those projected scores? Like how do cappers get scores from rankings and statistics? Is it simulations? algorithms? do they give certain stats points and then divide? lol it's so crazy how cappers get projected scores

There is way to much that goes into it to explain how KenPom gets his projections. You can visit his website or google it for details.

I do know that when lines are set for games, books refer to his (and others) projections to confirm they aren't making a mistake. Most CBB coaches use his information to analyze opponents.

Also, since they are based only on statistical analysis, KenPom (and other projections) do not take into account injuries. There's a perfect example of this tonight... TCU vs K-State. KenPom has it K-State -2. The line at most books is K-State -5. Why such a big difference? Because, Miles and/or Lampkin may be out for TCU.

 

[pete0]

Miami line seemed like one of those tonight. Those are the games to look for. Unranked teams favored at home vs ranked teams

Just follow formula home teams college hoops

This , theres a reason why such a team would be favored over an ranked team

 

[JDS]

 

[pete0]

This is what i have for tonite.

NBA.
PHO 1H. -4.5
MEM 1H -5


NCAAB
Uconn -4.5
Indiana ML -200
K. State -5

NHL
Ducks/Blackhawks Over 6.5


GL to all!

 

[JDS]

This is what i have for tonite.

NBA.
PHO 1H. -4.5
MEM 1H -5


NCAAB
Uconn -4.5
Indiana ML -200
K. State -5

NHL
Ducks/Blackhawks Over 6.5


GL to all!

Good luck & make money.

 

[quantumleap]

ok another similar looking situation.

a higher ranked team marquette No.10 AT lower ranked NO. 21 Uconn.
marquette has a better record too. conf 11-2 vs conf. 7-6 by Uconn.

first glance ? marquette should win right ? then why is Uconn favored?

i'm playing Uconn. at Home ( + revenge spot )

UConn out of the gate at 24-10. I took Marquette live at +12 1/2.

 

[JDS]

View attachment 9133

This model has been pretty damn accurate lately on games with a point discrepancy of three or more points away from the point spread, interesting.

 

[pete0]

This model has been pretty damn accurate lately on games with a point discrepancy of three or more points away from the point spread, interesting.

Interesting. Keep us posted about these on prime games.

Lets work together men!!

 

[JDS]

Interesting. Keep us posted about these on prime games.

Lets work together men!!

Yeah no problem, when this situation surfaces again, I will bring it to the forums attention.

 

[pete0]

This is what i have for tonite.

NBA.
PHO 1H. -4.5
MEM 1H -5


NCAAB
Uconn -4.5
Indiana ML -200
K. State -5

NHL
Ducks/Blackhawks Over 6.5


GL to all!

5-1.

i should probably avoid NHL (soccer/bases/tennis etc.) games of inches. until playoffs...

missed a decent sized parlay by lakers not winning SU.
but i'll take it. onto the next day...

 

[JDS]

5-1.

i should probably avoid NHL (soccer/bases/tennis etc.) games of inches. until playoffs...

missed a decent sized parlay by lakers not winning SU.
but i'll take it. onto the next day...

Incredible night Pete.

 

[jjgold]

Pete outstanding

 

[Tanko]

5-1.

i should probably avoid NHL (soccer/bases/tennis etc.) games of inches. until playoffs...

missed a decent sized parlay by lakers not winning SU.
but i'll take it. onto the next day...

Wow. Great job.