Today’s Top NFL Picks
Find the most accurate and profitable NFL picks with our expert analysis. Our team of handicappers thoroughly researches and analyzes data and trends to give you the edge you need to make smarter bets. Whether you’re looking for moneylines, over/unders or spreads, our NFL picks have you covered.
- This will be the first meeting between quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff since their 2018 classic, a 54-51 win by the Rams, the most points ever surrendered in a win in NFL history.
- In season openers in the Mahomes era, the Chiefs are averaging 37.8 points scored and 24.8 points allowed, for a whopping 62.6 combined points per game.
- Since 2015, 7-of-8 Detroit openers had at least 54 points, including 73 and 74 points in two years under coach Dan Campbell.
In the season opener, you can expect the Chiefs to show up for a banner night as their Super Bowl win is celebrated in front of the home crowd.
The Chiefs have always been prolific on offense in season openers under Patrick Mahomes, who has led his team to at least 33 points in Week 1 every year since 2018. The last five Kansas City openers have hit at least 54 combined points.
Top Offense vs. Bottom Defense?
The Chiefs finished 2022 on offense ranked No. 1 in yards, points, first downs, passing yards, passing touchdowns, and net yards per pass attempt. They will want to do better in home games this year, as the Chiefs only topped 27 points in one home game in 2022. They were oddly better on the road, but they will draw a Detroit defense that struggled mightily in 2022.
Detroit’s Suspect Defense
The Lions have a lot of hype this year to win the NFC North, but they have to deal with the fact that they were dead last on defense for much of 2022. Detroit finished 28th in points allowed, but it did finish 32nd in yards and first downs allowed. Detroit was also 31st in net yards per pass allowed and 30th in yards per carry allowed, so the run and pass were both major problems for this unit. There is no better test right away than Mahomes and the Chiefs in Kansas City.
Over 54 -110 at Bovada
- The AFC South rivals split last year, each winning at home.
- It will be the Jaguars’ debut of former Pro Bowl WR Calvin Ridley.
- Indy will have a quarterback battle in camp for the Week 1 starter.
Jacksonville is a chic pick by some NFL experts to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl for the first time – only the Jaguars, Houston Texans, Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions have never played in that game.
I’d certainly give Jacksonville the best chance of that group this year, although Detroit is pretty good. Houston has no chance. The Jags won the AFC South last year and then staged an incredible comeback to beat the Chargers 31-30 in the Wild Card round before losing 27-20 in Kansas City.
On the Rise
No question this is a team on the rise behind QB Trevor Lawrence, although he has to limit the mistakes. The former No. 1 overall pick had four first-half interceptions against the Chargers in that playoff game, which is why Jacksonville trailed 27-0 at one point. The Jags got Lawrence a new toy at last season’s Trade Deadline in landing former Falcons Pro Bowl receiver Calvin Ridley.
He couldn’t play in 2022 due to a gambling suspension but says he expects a 1,400-yard season in 2023. I don’t doubt it. The Jags will be short-handed up front as left tackle Cam Robinson faces a multi-game suspension for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drugs policy.
Who will be the Week 1 QB for Indy? I tend to doubt it’s rookie No. 4 overall pick Anthony Richardson simply because he’s such a project. It likely will be former Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew, and he’s solid. The Colts cratered last year due to poor QB play, but this is still a Super Bowl-caliber roster at many other positions. It will be the head coaching debut of ex-Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen.
I only like this at +3.5, not lower.
- Home team is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
- Jaguars are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 1.
Colts +3½ -105 at Bookmaker
- It’s the Broncos’ coaching debut of Sean Payton.
- Las Vegas swept the 2022 season series (2-0 ATS).
- The Raiders quarterback debut of Jimmy Garoppolo.
Carr Out, Jimmy G In
I’m assuming that Week 1 will be the Raiders’ regular-season debut of injury-prone Jimmy Garoppolo. News broke today that Jimmy G underwent surgery on his injured left foot after signing a free-agent contract with the team in March. Coach Josh McDaniels said he might be out until the start of training camp. That’s obviously not ideal for a quarterback learning a new offense/teammates.
The Raiders traded away one of the NFL’s top tight ends this offseason in Darren Waller to the Giants and now Las Vegas might have a Davante Adams problem on its hands. The All-Pro receiver said this recently about what the Silver & Black did this offseason, specifically trading away his buddy and college teammate QB Derek Carr: “[The front office] think this is the best bet for us right now to put us in a position to be urgent. We don’t see eye-to-eye on what we think is best for us right now.”
Out the Door?
Maybe Adams forces a trade by Week 1. But this is mainly about how I think new Broncos coach Sean Payton will get the best out of Russell Wilson, who reportedly is in the best shape of his career (“lean and mean.” The potential future Hall of Fame QB and that Broncos offense was unwatchable much of last year but coach Nathaniel Hackett was so far in over his head that he didn’t even make it through Year 1.
Payton is one of the best offensive minds around. Denver upgraded the offensive line in front of Wilson with tackle Mike McGlinchey and Ben Powers.
Denver lost in OT at home to Las Vegas in Week 11 last year, 22-16, on a Carr-to-Adams 35-yard TD pass. The Broncos had a chance to potentially run out the clock with the lead late in regulation but blew it – no team had worse clock management last year than Denver did under Hackett.
I can’t stress enough how much of an upgrade Payton will be. The Raiders are 3-7 ATS in their past 10 road games, but we’ll take the spread out of this play.
Broncos -180 at Bovada
- Baker Mayfield is favored over Kyle Trask to replace Tom Brady for Bucs.
- Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS in its past six road games.
- Dalvin Cook may no longer be with the Vikings by Week 1.
The post-Tom Brady era – and he’s not unretiring after buying a piece of the Las Vegas Raiders – begins for the Bucs with probably Baker Mayfield at quarterback, although the former No. 1 pick and free-agent signee technically will compete with Kyle Trask, a 2021 second-round pick who has attempted three passes in his NFL career.
It would be a surprise if Mayfield doesn’t win the job. He’s 31-38 in the NFL and was 2-8 last year with the Panthers and Rams. Remember, the Bucs finished below .500 in 2022 even with Brady still playing at a pretty high level so there are holes.
It seems like everyone is down on the Vikings even though they were 13-4 last year and won the NFC North by four games. Granted, they were historically good/lucky in close games and were beaten pretty soundly at home in the Wild Card round by an average New York Giants team.
Minnesota beefed up a bad defense this offseason by adding end Marcus Davenport and cornerback Byron Murphy.
But the Vikes still have Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook – at least for now on Cook. He could be released after June 1 in a salary-cap move as the team is high on backup Alexander Mattison.
This writer loves Jordan Addison’s chances at winning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year slotted opposite Jefferson, who will be drawing many double teams. The Vikings aren’t winning a Super Bowl most likely but they still should be division contenders.
The Bucs have no idea who they are and probably would prefer to be terrible this year and select QB Caleb Williams atop the 2024 draft.
- Buccaneers are 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
- Vikings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 1.
Vikings -6 -110 at BetOnline
- Lamar Jackson has a pair of 16-plus point wins vs. Houston with 5 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and a 134.5 passer rating.
- Jackson has gone 32 starts since last losing to a team with a losing record in a game he finished (2020 Patriots).
- Houston was 1-13-1 when allowing more than 14 points last year.
Things should look different in Baltimore with Todd Monken replacing Greg Roman as the offensive coordinator. Monken brings a more pass-oriented approach, with past success in Tampa Bay and back-to-back national championships at Georgia.
He also gets a healthy Lamar Jackson after the Ravens failed to crack 17 points in the final seven games after his injury.
Jackson got off to an MVP-level start before his injury last year. Now he gets what should be his best group of weapons in the NFL after the team signed Odell Beckham Jr. and drafted wide receiver Zay Flowers in the first round. This should pair together nicely with Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, and J.K. Dobbins.
The Texans will likely be trotting out a rookie head coach (DeMeco Ryans) and rookie quarterback (C.J. Stroud) on the road in one of the toughest stadiums to win. The Ravens had the best defense in the AFC North last year and should be ready for an offense that has a lot of unproven contributors.
With Brandin Cooks gone, Robert Woods and Nico Collins are competing for the No. 1 wide receiver role in Houston. Even in the two games where rookie back Dameon Pierce rushed for over 130 yards last year, the Texans still lost by double digits.
Ravens -9½ -110 at Heritage Sports
- Jordan Love’s lack of experience as a starting quarterback gives the Chicago Bears an advantage in their Week 1 matchup against the Green Bay Packers.
- The Packers’ recent dominance over the Bears does not guarantee success with Love at the helm.
- The Bears’ improved roster increases Chicago’s chances of securing their first victory over Green Bay since 2018.
The Week 1 matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears will shed light on whether Jordan Love can replicate Aaron Rodgers’ dominance against the Bears. The game will take place at Soldier Field.
Despite the Packers’ recent success against Chicago, the uncertainty surrounding Love as a starting quarterback gives the Bears an advantage, making them the early favorites and that is our angle here.
During Rodgers’ tenure, the Packers boasted an impressive record of 26-5 against the Bears from 2008 to 2022. Their victory over Chicago in December of last year solidified the Packers’ position as the franchise with the most wins in NFL history. Even with Rodgers nursing injuries and a struggling team, the Packers were still favored by 3.5 points in their previous meeting with the Bears.
However, Chicago managed to keep the game competitive, and you can bet that Justin Fields will view this game as a crucial opportunity to secure a victory over their division rivals.
With Aaron Rodgers no longer leading the Packers, the Bears have a better chance of breaking their winless streak against Green Bay since 2018. This game holds significant importance for Fields and the Bears, who aim to make a statement by defeating their longstanding adversaries.
Bears -2 ½ (-108) at Heritage Sports
Football is one of the most popular sports in America, and with so many games happening each week, it can be challenging to keep up with the latest picks and predictions. That’s where today’s top NFL picks come in. These picks are the result of careful analysis and expert insights, providing fans and bettors with valuable information on which teams to root for or bet on.
Today’s top NFL picks take into account a variety of factors, including team performance, injuries and recent trends. Our experts analyze each team’s strengths and weaknesses, as well as the matchup at hand, to make their predictions. They also take into account the betting line and point spread, providing insights on whether a team is a good value bet.
But why are today’s top NFL picks so important? For one, they can give fans and bettors an edge in their decision-making process. By providing informed analysis and insights, expert picks can help fans make more informed decisions when it comes to rooting for their team or placing bets.
Additionally, today’s top NFL picks can help fans stay up-to-date on the latest news and trends in the league throughout the football season leading up to the playoff games and the Super Bowl. By following expert analysis and insights, fans can get a better understanding of each team’s performance and make more informed predictions of their own.
NFL Expert Picks
The NFL is an unpredictable league, making it challenging to predict the outcome of games. That’s where BMR’s expert picks come in. By leveraging our knowledge and expertise, our team of NFL experts provides valuable insights into which team may come out on top.
But what makes a pick truly an “expert” pick? It’s not just about having knowledge of the game; it’s about understanding the nuances of each team’s strengths and weaknesses. Experts must consider factors like injuries, team chemistry and recent performance when making their predictions.
That being said, expert picks are not foolproof. There’s always an element of unpredictability in sports, and even the most experienced analysts can get it wrong. However, our team of experts have a proven track record of providing our readers with sound advice and relatively safe picks.
NFL Picks Against the Spread
NFL picks against the spread involve betting on whether a team will win by a certain number of points or more, or whether they will lose by fewer points than the spread. For example, if a team is listed as -7 against the spread, they must win by more than 7 points for a bet on them to be successful. Conversely, if a team is listed as +7 against the spread, they must lose by fewer than 7 points or win outright for a bet on them to be successful.
So why are NFL picks against the spread so popular? For one, they can provide better value for bettors than betting on the moneyline. By taking into account the point spread, bettors can potentially win more money than they would by simply betting on the winner of the game.
Additionally, NFL picks against the spread require careful analysis and expert insights. Experts consider a variety of factors when making their picks, including team performance, injuries and recent trends. They also take into account the betting line and point spread, providing insights on which teams are a good value bet.
NFL Totals Picks
The basic idea behind NFL Totals Picks is to predict whether the total points scored by both teams will be over or under the predetermined total set by the bookmaker. For example, if the total is set at 45, you can bet on whether the total points scored will be over or under 45.
Making NFL totals picks requires a different set of skills than other types of NFL bets. Instead of analyzing individual teams and their matchups, you need to consider various factors that may influence the total points scored. These include the weather, injuries, offensive and defensive efficiency and even the referees.
One of the benefits of NFL totals picks is that they offer a unique betting experience that can be enjoyable and profitable. It also allows bettors to have a stake in games that they may not have a particular rooting interest in.
NFL Moneyline Picks
One of the most straightforward types of bets is the moneyline bet, which involves simply picking the team that will win the game outright. Moneyline football picks can be a good option for those who are just getting started with NFL betting, as they are easy to understand and require no knowledge of point spreads.
However, just because moneyline picks are simple does not mean they are not valuable. In fact, there are many situations in which a moneyline pick might be the best bet to make. For example, if there is a significant talent gap between two teams, a moneyline pick on the more talented team might be the way to go, even if the odds are not particularly favorable.
On the other hand, there are also situations in which moneyline picks might not be the best choice. For example, if two teams are evenly matched, the odds on each team may be relatively close, making it difficult to find value in a moneyline bet. In this case, a point spread or totals bet might be a better option.
NFL Parlay Picks
Parlay betting has become increasingly popular among NFL fans, as it offers a chance to win big with a small bet. A parlay bet is when you combine two or more bets into one wager, and all the bets in the parlay must win for the bettor to win the bet.
When making NFL parlay picks, it’s important to consider each team’s strengths and weaknesses, as well as the matchup. Look at the offensive and defensive stats, injuries and recent performances to make informed decisions.
One of the benefits of parlay betting is the potential for higher payouts compared to single bets. However, keep in mind that the more bets you include in a parlay, the higher the risk of losing the entire bet. It’s important to strike a balance between the number of bets and the potential payout.
Another strategy is to focus on smaller, more manageable parlays rather than trying to hit a massive payout with a large parlay. It’s also important to set a budget and stick to it, as with any form of gambling.
When it comes to choosing which NFL games to include in a parlay, don’t be afraid to go against the consensus or popular opinion. Doing your own research and trusting your instincts can lead to profitable outcomes.
NFL Prop Picks
When it comes to NFL betting, prop bets are a fun and exciting way to get in on the action. Prop bets are wagers on specific events or occurrences within a game that don’t necessarily affect the final outcome. Prop bets include team props, player props and even game props. For example, for a player prop, you might bet on which player will score the first touchdown or how many yards a particular quarterback will throw for.
Prop bets can be a great way to add some extra excitement to a game, especially if you’re not confident in picking a winner against the spread or moneyline. However, they can also be more difficult to predict since they often rely on individual player performance rather than overall team success.
When making prop bets, it’s important to do your research and look at factors such as player stats, recent performance and matchup history. It’s also important to keep in mind that prop bets often have lower betting limits than traditional bets, so it’s important to not go overboard.
Some popular prop bets include over/under on passing yards, total receptions and total rushing yards for individual players. Other fun prop bets might include which team will score first, or how long the national anthem will be before the game.
NFL Consensus Picks
If you’re new to the world of sports betting, you may have come across the term “NFL consensus picks” and wondered what it means. Simply put, a consensus pick is a general agreement among experts or analysts on a particular NFL game’s outcome.
While consensus picks don’t guarantee a win, they can provide valuable insights into how the experts view a particular matchup. By looking at a variety of sources and analyzing their consensus picks, you can get a better sense of the overall sentiment surrounding a game.
Consensus picks can be a helpful tool in your arsenal, but they should be used in conjunction with other analysis and research.
FAQs – National Football League Picks
Can I make money by making NFL picks?
Yes, it’s possible to make money by making NFL picks, but it requires discipline, knowledge and skill in order to consistently make correct betting predictions. Successful bettors use a systematic approach and focus on long-term profitability rather than short-term wins.
What is the best strategy for making successful NFL picks?
The best strategy for making successful National Football League picks is to research and analyze all relevant data, stay up-to-date with the latest news and developments, be selective with what betting odds you take and bet with a sound money management plan.
What are some common mistakes to avoid when making NFL picks?
Some common mistakes to avoid when making NFL picks include betting based on emotions, not doing enough research and chasing losses. This is particularly prevalent with the playoff games and championships but should be avoided during regular season games as well.
What are some popular NFL betting markets?
Some popular NFL betting markets include point spread, moneyline, totals, props, futures and live betting. You can learn more about these betting markets, including current betting odds for each and our score predictions, right here at BMR.
Can I make NFL picks on my mobile phone?
Yes, many sports betting platforms offer mobile apps that allow you to bet on National Football League games on your mobile phone or tablet.