Today’s Top NFL Picks

Key Facts

• This will be the first meeting between quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff since their 2018 classic, a 54-51 win by the Rams, the most points ever surrendered in a win in NFL history.
• In season openers in the Mahomes era, the Chiefs are averaging 37.8 points scored and 24.8 points allowed, for a whopping 62.6 combined points per game.
• Since 2015, 7-of-8 Detroit openers had at least 54 points, including 73 and 74 points in two years under coach Dan Campbell.

Banner Night

In the season opener, you can expect the Chiefs to show up for a banner night as their Super Bowl win is celebrated in front of the home crowd.

The Chiefs have always been prolific on offense in season openers under Patrick Mahomes, who has led his team to at least 33 points in Week 1 every year since 2018. The last five Kansas City openers have hit at least 54 combined points.

Top Offense vs. Bottom Defense?

The Chiefs finished 2022 on offense ranked No. 1 in yards, points, first downs, passing yards, passing touchdowns, and net yards per pass attempt. They will want to do better in home games this year, as the Chiefs only topped 27 points in one home game in 2022. They were oddly better on the road, but they will draw a Detroit defense that struggled mightily in 2022.

Detroit’s Suspect Defense

The Lions have a lot of hype this year to win the NFC North, but they have to deal with the fact that they were dead last on defense for much of 2022. Detroit finished 28th in points allowed, but it did finish 32nd in yards and first downs allowed. Detroit was also 31st in net yards per pass allowed and 30th in yards per carry allowed, so the run and pass were both major problems for this unit. There is no better test right away than Mahomes and the Chiefs in Kansas City.

The Pick

Over 54 -110 at Bovada

Key Facts

• The AFC South rivals split last year, each winning at home.  
• It will be the Jaguars’ debut of former Pro Bowl WR Calvin Ridley. 
• Indy will have a quarterback battle in camp for the Week 1 starter. 

Chic Pick

Jacksonville is a chic pick by some NFL experts to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl for the first time – only the Jaguars, Houston Texans, Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions have never played in that game. 

I’d certainly give Jacksonville the best chance of that group this year, although Detroit is pretty good. Houston has no chance. The Jags won the AFC South last year and then staged an incredible comeback to beat the Chargers 31-30 in the Wild Card round before losing 27-20 in Kansas City. 

On the Rise

No question this is a team on the rise behind QB Trevor Lawrence, although he has to limit the mistakes. The former No. 1 overall pick had four first-half interceptions against the Chargers in that playoff game, which is why Jacksonville trailed 27-0 at one point. The Jags got Lawrence a new toy at last season’s Trade Deadline in landing former Falcons Pro Bowl receiver Calvin Ridley.

 He couldn’t play in 2022 due to a gambling suspension but says he expects a 1,400-yard season in 2023. I don’t doubt it. The Jags will be short-handed up front as left tackle Cam Robinson faces a multi-game suspension for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drugs policy. 

NFL Debut?

Who will be the Week 1 QB for Indy? I tend to doubt it’s rookie No. 4 overall pick Anthony Richardson simply because he’s such a project. It likely will be former Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew, and he’s solid. The Colts cratered last year due to poor QB play, but this is still a Super Bowl-caliber roster at many other positions. It will be the head coaching debut of ex-Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen.  

I only like this at +3.5, not lower.  

• Home team is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings. 
• Jaguars are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 1. 

The Pick

Colts +3½ -105 at Bookmaker

Key Facts 

• It’s the Broncos’ coaching debut of Sean Payton. 
• Las Vegas swept the 2022 season series (2-0 ATS).  
• The Raiders quarterback debut of Jimmy Garoppolo. 

Carr Out, Jimmy G In

I’m assuming that Week 1 will be the Raiders’ regular-season debut of injury-prone Jimmy Garoppolo. News broke today that Jimmy G underwent surgery on his injured left foot after signing a free-agent contract with the team in March. Coach Josh McDaniels said he might be out until the start of training camp. That’s obviously not ideal for a quarterback learning a new offense/teammates. 

The Raiders traded away one of the NFL’s top tight ends this offseason in Darren Waller to the Giants and now Las Vegas might have a Davante Adams problem on its hands. The All-Pro receiver said this recently about what the Silver & Black did this offseason, specifically trading away his buddy and college teammate QB Derek Carr: “[The front office] think this is the best bet for us right now to put us in a position to be urgent. We don’t see eye-to-eye on what we think is best for us right now.” 

Out the Door?

Maybe Adams forces a trade by Week 1. But this is mainly about how I think new Broncos coach Sean Payton will get the best out of Russell Wilson, who reportedly is in the best shape of his career (“lean and mean.” The potential future Hall of Fame QB and that Broncos offense was unwatchable much of last year but coach Nathaniel Hackett was so far in over his head that he didn’t even make it through Year 1. 

Payton is one of the best offensive minds around. Denver upgraded the offensive line in front of Wilson with tackle Mike McGlinchey and Ben Powers. 

Last Season

Denver lost in OT at home to Las Vegas in Week 11 last year, 22-16, on a Carr-to-Adams 35-yard TD pass. The Broncos had a chance to potentially run out the clock with the lead late in regulation but blew it – no team had worse clock management last year than Denver did under Hackett.

I can’t stress enough how much of an upgrade Payton will be.  The Raiders are 3-7 ATS in their past 10 road games, but we’ll take the spread out of this play.  

The Pick

Broncos -180 at Bovada

Key Facts 

• Baker Mayfield is favored over Kyle Trask to replace Tom Brady for Bucs. 
• Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS in its past six road games.  
• Dalvin Cook may no longer be with the Vikings by Week 1. 

Post-Brady Era

The post-Tom Brady era – and he’s not unretiring after buying a piece of the Las Vegas Raiders – begins for the Bucs with probably Baker Mayfield at quarterback, although the former No. 1 pick and free-agent signee technically will compete with Kyle Trask, a 2021 second-round pick who has attempted three passes in his NFL career.

It would be a surprise if Mayfield doesn’t win the job. He’s 31-38 in the NFL and was 2-8 last year with the Panthers and Rams. Remember, the Bucs finished below .500 in 2022 even with Brady still playing at a pretty high level so there are holes. 

Losing Momentum

It seems like everyone is down on the Vikings even though they were 13-4 last year and won the NFC North by four games. Granted, they were historically good/lucky in close games and were beaten pretty soundly at home in the Wild Card round by an average New York Giants team. 

Minnesota beefed up a bad defense this offseason by adding end Marcus Davenport and cornerback Byron Murphy. 

But the Vikes still have Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook – at least for now on Cook. He could be released after June 1 in a salary-cap move as the team is high on backup Alexander Mattison. 

OROY Candidate

This writer loves Jordan Addison’s chances at winning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year slotted opposite Jefferson, who will be drawing many double teams. The Vikings aren’t winning a Super Bowl most likely but they still should be division contenders. 

The Bucs have no idea who they are and probably would prefer to be terrible this year and select QB Caleb Williams atop the 2024 draft. 

• Buccaneers are 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. 
• Vikings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 1. 

The Pick

Vikings -6 -110 at BetOnline

Key Facts

• Lamar Jackson has a pair of 16-plus point wins vs. Houston with 5 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and a 134.5 passer rating.
• Jackson has gone 32 starts since last losing to a team with a losing record in a game he finished (2020 Patriots).
• Houston was 1-13-1 when allowing more than 14 points last year.

New Offense

Things should look different in Baltimore with Todd Monken replacing Greg Roman as the offensive coordinator. Monken brings a more pass-oriented approach, with past success in Tampa Bay and back-to-back national championships at Georgia.

He also gets a healthy Lamar Jackson after the Ravens failed to crack 17 points in the final seven games after his injury.

Reloaded Weapons

Jackson got off to an MVP-level start before his injury last year. Now he gets what should be his best group of weapons in the NFL after the team signed Odell Beckham Jr. and drafted wide receiver Zay Flowers in the first round. This should pair together nicely with Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, and J.K. Dobbins.

Houston’s Inexperience

The Texans will likely be trotting out a rookie head coach (DeMeco Ryans) and rookie quarterback (C.J. Stroud) on the road in one of the toughest stadiums to win. The Ravens had the best defense in the AFC North last year and should be ready for an offense that has a lot of unproven contributors.

With Brandin Cooks gone, Robert Woods and Nico Collins are competing for the No. 1 wide receiver role in Houston. Even in the two games where rookie back Dameon Pierce rushed for over 130 yards last year, the Texans still lost by double digits.

The Pick

Ravens -9½ -110 at Heritage Sports

Key Facts

• Jordan Love’s lack of experience as a starting quarterback gives the Chicago Bears an advantage in their Week 1 matchup against the Green Bay Packers.
• The Packers’ recent dominance over the Bears does not guarantee success with Love at the helm.
• The Bears’ improved roster increases Chicago’s chances of securing their first victory over Green Bay since 2018.

New Era

The Week 1 matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears will shed light on whether Jordan Love can replicate Aaron Rodgers’ dominance against the Bears. The game will take place at Soldier Field.

Despite the Packers’ recent success against Chicago, the uncertainty surrounding Love as a starting quarterback gives the Bears an advantage, making them the early favorites and that is our angle here.

Old Guard

During Rodgers’ tenure, the Packers boasted an impressive record of 26-5 against the Bears from 2008 to 2022. Their victory over Chicago in December of last year solidified the Packers’ position as the franchise with the most wins in NFL history. Even with Rodgers nursing injuries and a struggling team, the Packers were still favored by 3.5 points in their previous meeting with the Bears.

Competitive

However, Chicago managed to keep the game competitive, and you can bet that Justin Fields will view this game as a crucial opportunity to secure a victory over their division rivals.

With Aaron Rodgers no longer leading the Packers, the Bears have a better chance of breaking their winless streak against Green Bay since 2018. This game holds significant importance for Fields and the Bears, who aim to make a statement by defeating their longstanding adversaries.

The Pick

Bears -2 ½ (-108) at Heritage Sports