Starting to get into the groove at BMR....
Pinny currently dealing a no vig line here of -147/+147.
I have CHC winning this game with predicted score that can be converted to a win percentage with can then be converted to a moneyline.
I have Cubs winning by .7 runs in about an 8.5 point game. Using a pythgorean method with a custom fit exponent from my office I get the Cubs winning 58.18% of the time with MIA winning the remaining.
These percentages convert to a no-vig line of -135.27/+135.27.
According to these numbers alone, these is value, or at least an overly, on the underdog here.
Those +150s could be attractive, I somehow think the line comes down from any of those, to mthe mid 140's, a little more consistent with my numbers.
