Friday July 18-Wed July 31

[phantom888]

More favorable umps tonight that last night

***6th Umpire Over is Pads/Nats Over 9 with Adrian Johnson who is rated 4.29 putting him in the extreme hitter friendly cat as most yrs he avg nearly 10 runs and 62-63% strikes and low 2.0 SO/BB ratio. This yr he's 13-6 Over on 11 runs per game , low 62% strikes and 2.07 SO/BB. The padres offense is top notch as they are top 10 in league in runs, hits, HR, RBI, K's, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS. Opposing hitters are hitting .325 on Vasquez, while Nats probable pitcher Hertz has a high 5.17 ERA, W/opposing batters hitting .271 on him. The over is 5-0 last 5 vasquez starts, and 8-5 last 13 for nats.

Thanks for the info on umpire stays on overs and unders.

have you ever thought of looking into the numbers and determining which is the best indicator that a game will go over? I’m sure Vegas has this factored when coming up with a line on the total.

an umpire that’s 10-9 to the overs isn’t as pretty as one that’s 14-1 to the over. Not sure what stat is the Achilles heel to getting it right at a greater percentage

just wondering

you provide excellent info

thanks!

 

[phantom888]

Thanks for the info on umpire stats on overs and unders.

have you ever thought of looking into the numbers and determining which is the best indicator that a game will go over? I’m sure Vegas has this factored when coming up with a line on the total.

an umpire that’s 10-9 to the overs isn’t as pretty as one that’s 14-1 to the over. Not sure what stat is the Achilles heel to getting it right at a greater percentage

just wondering

you provide excellent info

thanks!

 

[piratealew]

Thanks for the info on umpire stays on overs and unders.

have you ever thought of looking into the numbers and determining which is the best indicator that a game will go over? I’m sure Vegas has this factored when coming up with a line on the total.

an umpire that’s 10-9 to the overs isn’t as pretty as one that’s 14-1 to the over. Not sure what stat is the Achilles heel to getting it right at a greater percentage

just wondering

you provide excellent info

thanks!

yeah I've thought about a few things, let me think about it and i'll respond later.

added:
Houston/Oakland Over 8.5-115

 

[piratealew]

An eh ok day thanks to #1 top play Phillies and Brewers, lost most of the small plays at least. Lets get some today.

MLB=1239-1138 YTD/ (604-571 Top plays) Umpire Overs=128-98 Umpire Under=14-10

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Cardinals+104
⭐️Boston-146
⭐️Phillies-142
⭐️Braves-1-120 (Game 2)
⭐️Royals-116
⭐️Yankees/Mets Over 8-115 (Umpire Over)
⭐️Houston-149
⭐️Seattle-1-120
⭐️Reds+117 (Game 1)
⭐️Detroit+135
⭐️Dodgers-1-136
⭐️Yankees-154
⭐️Batimore-129
Toronto+101
Padres-117
Cards/Pirates Over 8.5-115 (Umpire Over)
Braves/Reds Over 7.5-125 (Game 1)
Phillies-135 (F5)
Detroit+0.5-120 (F5)
Phils/Twins Over 7.5-115
Brewers+120
Boston-0.5-115 (F5)
Dodgers/Giants Over 7.5-120 (Umpire Over)
Padres/Nats Over 8.5-115
Texas/Chicago Over 7.5-125
Seattle-0.5-115 (F5)
Braves/Reds Over 7-125 (Game 2)
Baltimore/Miami Over 8-115
Brewers/Cubs UNDER 8-125 (Umpire Under)


***1st Umpire Over is Yankees/Mets Over 8 with Andy Fletcher...

***2nd Umpire Over is Cards/Pirates Over 8.5 with Alan Porter....

***3rd Umpire Over is Dodgers/Giants Over 7.5 with Mark Carlson...

***1st Umpire UNDER is Brewers/Cubs UNDER 8 with Ryan Additon....

Olympic Soccer-not much time but here's the plays...

Morocco Or tie-115, New Zealand Or tie+125, Japan+120, Ukraine-120, France-120

GL all, will try to do the writeups in a bit. ....

 

[piratealew]

An eh ok day thanks to #1 top play Phillies and Brewers, lost most of the small plays at least. Lets get some today.

MLB=1239-1138 YTD/ (604-571 Top plays) Umpire Overs=128-98 Umpire Under=14-10

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Cardinals+104
⭐️Boston-146
⭐️Phillies-142
⭐️Braves-1-120 (Game 2)
⭐️Royals-116
⭐️Yankees/Mets Over 8-115 (Umpire Over)
⭐️Houston-149
⭐️Seattle-1-120
⭐️Reds+117 (Game 1)
⭐️Detroit+135
⭐️Dodgers-1-136
⭐️Yankees-154
⭐️Batimore-129
Toronto+101
Padres-117
Cards/Pirates Over 8.5-115 (Umpire Over)
Braves/Reds Over 7.5-125 (Game 1)
Phillies-135 (F5)
Detroit+0.5-120 (F5)
Phils/Twins Over 7.5-115
Brewers+120
Boston-0.5-115 (F5)
Dodgers/Giants Over 7.5-120 (Umpire Over)
Padres/Nats Over 8.5-115
Texas/Chicago Over 7.5-125
Seattle-0.5-115 (F5)
Braves/Reds Over 7-125 (Game 2)
Baltimore/Miami Over 8-115
Brewers/Cubs UNDER 8-125 (Umpire Under)


***1st Umpire Over is Yankees/Mets Over 8 with Andy Fletcher...

***2nd Umpire Over is Cards/Pirates Over 8.5 with Alan Porter....

***3rd Umpire Over is Dodgers/Giants Over 7.5 with Mark Carlson...

***1st Umpire UNDER is Brewers/Cubs UNDER 8 with Ryan Additon....

Olympic Soccer-not much time but here's the plays...

Morocco Or tie-115, New Zealand Or tie+125, Japan+120, Ukraine-120, France-120

GL all, will try to do the writeups in a bit. ....

⭐️Cards/Pirates Over 8.5-115 (Umpire Over) is a top play⭐️

 

[piratealew]

***4th Umpire Over is Texas/Chicago Over 7.5 with Adam Hamari

 

[piratealew]

Colorado Team Total Over 4-120

***1st Umpire Over is ⭐️Yankees/Mets Over 8 with Andy Fletcher is also a top play

 

[piratealew]

Toronto and San Diego ML above are top plays tonight.

 

[piratealew]

Final Order with tonight's games and top plays. Didnt get much luck from Phils, Cards and Red Sox earlier but at least Astros are taking care of business. Hit 4-1 in the olympics soccer plays, only Ukraine lost.

⭐️Cardinals+104
⭐️Boston-146
⭐️Phillies-142
⭐️Braves-1-120 (Game 2)
⭐️Royals-116
⭐️Yankees/Mets Over 8-115 (Umpire Over)
⭐️Houston-149
⭐️Seattle-1-120
⭐️Reds+117 (Game 1)
⭐️Detroit+135
⭐️Dodgers-1-136
⭐️Yankees-154
⭐️Batimore-129

⭐️Cards/Pirates Over 8.5-115 (Umpire Over)

⭐️Colorado Team Total Over 4-120

⭐️Toronto+101
⭐️Padres-117

Braves/Reds Over 7.5-125 (Game 1)
Phillies-135 (F5)
Detroit+0.5-120 (F5)
Phils/Twins Over 7.5-115
Brewers+120
Boston-0.5-115 (F5)
Dodgers/Giants Over 7.5-120 (Umpire Over)
Padres/Nats Over 8.5-115
Texas/Chicago Over 7.5-125 (umpire Over)
Seattle-0.5-115 (F5)
Braves/Reds Over 7-125 (Game 2)
Baltimore/Miami Over 8-115
Brewers/Cubs UNDER 8-125 (Umpire Under)
***1st Umpire Over is Yankees/Mets Over 8 with Andy Fletcher...

***2nd Umpire Over is Cards/Pirates Over 8.5 with Alan Porter....

***3rd Umpire Over is Dodgers/Giants Over 7.5 with Mark Carlson...

***1st Umpire UNDER is Brewers/Cubs UNDER 8 with Ryan Additon....

Olympic Soccer-not much time but here's the plays...

Morocco Or tie-115

New Zealand Or tie+125

Japan+120

Ukraine-120

France-120

 

[piratealew]

Looks like Braves game 2 was postponed for tonight...

⭐️Arizona/KC Over 8.5-120

 

[piratealew]

An ok day yesterday, hit 3-1 Umpire overs and 1-0 unders yesterday. No umpire info as of this AM yet, will update later.

MLB=18-11 Wed

Olympics Soccer=4-1
MLB=1257-1149 YTD/ (611-581 Top plays) Umpire Overs=131-99 Umpire Under=15-10

⭐️Tampa-106
⭐️Padres-1-138
⭐️Mets+110
⭐️Dodgers-134
⭐️Cleveland-1-115
⭐️Orioles-1-133 (F5)
⭐️Oakland/LAA Over 8.5-130
⭐️Mets/Braves Over 7-125
⭐️Rangers-1.5-125
Oakland-105
Baltimore-1.5-145 (Full game)
Padres-0.5-120 (F5)
Padres/Nats Over 8.5-120
Tampa/Toronto Over 7.5-120
White Sux/Rangers Over 7.5-115
Dodgers/Giants UNDER 9-125
Baltimore/Miami UNDER 9-125

 

[piratealew]

***1st Umpire over is Padres/Nats Over 8.5 with Ramon DeJesus who is rated 4.31, among the most extreme hitter friendly umpires due to his long history of a hitter of leaning to hitters, this year is an aberration for him as he's just under 9 runs but last yr was more typical at 11.45 runs, 19-9 over on 63% strikes and 2.22 SO/BB Ratio. His avg run inititiated per game is over 1 run per game, i had this game at 9 but added 1 to given his avg. In the 4 games btw these 2 this yr, they have combined avg 11.5 runs per game with Padres avg 7 runs per game. SD is in top half of MLB in runs scored on the road at 4.56 per game and 4.48 at night, while Nats increase their scoring at home to 4.25 runs per home game. I see no reason with the matchup today that this doesn't breeze past the total like last night.

 

[piratealew]

Cease Pitches a no-no so of course that over was dead, at least Padres win for the big play...

**2nd Umpir Over is Braves/Mets OVER 7 with Emil Jiminez who is 11-8 Over on 9.3 runs, 63% strikes, 2.6 SO/BB ratio. he's a newer ump but has been very consistent with a low strike call and more walks. Both teams are top in homers and XBH while atlanta's pitchers have their highest ERA on the road and Mets in night games. The mets also avg 4.9 runs per game which is 6th best, while they are 23rd allowing 4.7 runs per game, so i see a lot of pathways to the over tonight.

 

[piratealew]

Dodgers-116 (F5)

 

[piratealew]

Great afternoon so far, as #1 tampa makes it easy up 12-0, padres win easy and dodgers get the F5, hopefully hang on and win the game...

***3rd Umpire Over is ⭐️Oakland/LAA Over 8.5 Bruce Drekman who is almost an auto over this year at 15-3 over, and ana astonishing 12.11 runs on 64% strikes, and a 2.5 SO/BB Ratio. The over is 7-1 last 8 games for A's and with the A's ranked 4th in Homers at 132 its easy to see why, tonight they face an inexperienced pitcher who's only thrown in 12 MLB games since 2022 and has a 6 ERA, Meanwhile A's pitcher Ross S has a 5.82 ERA And a 4.73 ERA against LAA in 6 starts. Runs should be plenty early and late, as angels pen is 4th worst at 4.5 ERA, while Oak's pen has a 3.64 ERA. This is a top play.

 

[piratealew]

Mets win. top 4 cash. Really good day.

 

[G-Man!]

Great day P! Nice calls.

 

[piratealew]

Great day P! Nice calls.

thank G, It was a really good day, cashed the top 4 which led to a great day. Going to be on the road later today and down in NC this weekend to deal with some family stuff. Wont have much time for umpire info or analysis later, got these in early.

MLB=10-8 (Cash top 4......6-3 top plays)

MLB=1267-1157 YTD/ (617-584 Top plays) Umpire Overs=132-101 Umpire Under=15-10

⭐️Cardinals-149
⭐️Atlanta+124
⭐️Royals-138
⭐️Texas+116
⭐️Orioles-0.5-128 (F5)
⭐️Reds+101
⭐️Cards/Nats Over 7.5-110
⭐️Dodgers+112
⭐️Seattle-148
⭐️Yankees-118
⭐️Twinks-153
⭐️Pirates/Dbags Over 7.5-110
⭐️Angels+112
Twins/Tigers Over 7.5-115
Rockies+150 (F5)
Baltimore-1-120
Phils-1-112
Brewers-1.5-105
Texas+115 (F5)
Atlanta/NY Over 7.5-115
Philly/Clev Over 8-115
Mil/MIA Over 7.5-110
Pittsburgh+1.5-135
Dodgers/Astros Over 8-115
Baltimore/SD Over 8.5-120
Rockies+1.5-130 (Full game RL)
Oakland/LAA Over 8.5-120
Yanks/Sox Over 9.5-112
Seattle/CHW UNDER 8-130
Chicago/KC UNDER 9.5-115

 

[piratealew]

No time for much analysis or writeup, just got to NC and saw a few umpires that stood out..

***1st Umpire Over is ⭐️Oakland/LAA Over 8.5 with Mark Wegner who is 10-4 over on almos 10 runs per game. This is a top play.

***2nd Umpire Over is ⭐️Twins/Tigers Over 7.5 w/Jansen Visconti who is 12-7 Over on 9.37 runs. This is a top play.

***3rd Umpire Over is Tampa/Cincy Over 7-130 with Edwin Moscosco, who is rated 4.33, 3rd most hitter friendly ump in the xtreme cat. He is 12-8 over on over 9 runs, but last year was more typical at 23-10 Over and over 10 runs.

 

[piratealew]

Late total:

Colorado/SF Over 7.5-120