Up and down Tues, Royals couldnt come thru after the long rain delay. I've lost the last 4 of those.
1004-889 YTD/ (512-449 Top plays) Umpire Overs=91-63 Umpire Under=5-3
All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.
⭐️Astros-105
⭐️Mets-120
⭐️Boston/Miami Over 7.5-120 (Umpire Over-Mahrley)
⭐️Brewers-142
⭐️Cardinals+114
⭐️Clev-1-125 (ECU star Williams makes first '24 start, he has dominant stuff, guys will win for him)
⭐️Tampa+100
⭐️Angels-105
⭐️Reds+0.5+110 (F5)
⭐️Texas-135
⭐️Angels/A's Over 7.5-130 (Umpire Over-Muchlinski)
⭐️Dbags/Dodgers Over 9-105 (Umpire Over-Baker)
Boston-135
Twins-1-112
Mutts/Nats Over 8-130
Dodgers-0.5-135 (F5)
Mariners-115
Cubs+117
Reds+165 (Full-game)
Brewers/Rockies Over 11-125 (Umpire Over-Ripperger)
Tigers/Twins Over 8.5-120
SD/Texas Over 8.5-115
Cards/Pirates Over 7.5-125
Giants/Braves UNDER 8.5-125 (Umpire Under-Additon)
Astros/Jays UNDER 9-130
***1st Umpire Over is Boston/Miami Over 7.5 with Nick Mahrley who is 10-5 over in '24 on 10.1 runs per game and 63% strikes and a low 2.5 SO/BB Ratio. His last 2 games produced 28 runs. Boston has dominated LH pitching this year, and going aginst Southpaw Rrogers who has a 4.87 ERA and 1.56 WHIP, while boston is 1st in MLB in BABIP .346 against lefties this year and 9th in wOBA .326. Bello has been bad during june posting an 8.25 ERA and 2.04 Whip; these hit the over early last night and should again tonight as there will be runs on both sides tonight.
***2nd Umpire Over is Angels/A's Over 7,5 with Mike Muchlinksi who's games have seen a whopping 11.2 runs per game in 15, on 64% strikes and 2.6 SO/BB Ratio. Over his last 106 gms or 3 years he's 55% over, on 9.7 runs. Last night these 2 hit the over early and that's possible again tonight givent he matchup and umpire as Angels have hit the over 3 striaght, and both teams have averaged 8 runs between themselves and opponent the last 3 games. Angels are starting a kid in his 2nd start and A's with a first yr pitcher so mistkes and runs should be plenty.
***3rd Umpire Over is Az/Dodgers Over 9 with Jordan Baker who is 7-6-1 to the over but averages 9.2 runs on a low 64% strikes and under 3 SO/BB Ratio. Over his last 75 games or 3 yrs he's 55.6% to the over on 9.5 runs per game and a 63% strikes and 2.4 SO/BB Ratio, which has earned him a spot in the hitter friendly category at 4.27 tied with Libka and above Thomas. I had this game at 10 (these 2 hit 11 last night) before the umpire news but could see another un added given his 1.2 run impact per game. The over is 4-0 in dodgers last 4, i see it going to 5.
***4th Umpire Over is Mil/Col Over 11 with Mark Ripperger who is 10-6-1 Over, on 9.8 runs per game, a low 2.3 SO/BB Ratio and 64% strikes. He's been consistent throughout, his last 5 years or 146 games, hes had a 9.7 runs per game avg, and at coors field he's 4-2 over and 14.3 runs. Hudson has struggled at Coors with a 8.58 ERA and 2.13 WHIP in 8 games, while Rea has a 4.5 ERA, 1.5 WHIP in 6 road starts. Brewers offense is top 10 in runs, hits, walks, RBI's, stolen bases, BA, and OBP. I could see a 8-5 type game.
***1st Umpire Under is Giants/Braves Under 8.5 with Ryan Additon who is 11-5 UNDER on 8.6 runs, and this is with 2 games that skewed the avg higher (22, and 24). The under was safe last night, and is 6-3-1 last 10 games H2H. Braves have seen a 7-2-1 under last 10 games allowing just 3.1 runs per game, and with this pitching matchup eluding to another pitcher's dual, the under should be in play.
