Monday July 1-Sunday July 7 MLB

[piratealew]

thanks budy, hope we keep on rolling

Added

Brewers-0.5-112 (F5/First 5 innings)

 

[piratealew]

A good day yesterday, thanks to Astros and Boston over. Hope everyone has a great 4th of July.

1018-902 YTD/ (518-456 Top plays) Umpire Overs=93-65 Umpire Under=6-3

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Orioles-135
⭐️Phillies-120
⭐️Brewers-130
⭐️Royals+114
⭐️Cards/Pirates Over 8.5-120 (Umpire Over)
⭐️Boston-146
⭐️Mets-112
⭐️Cardinals-114
⭐️Braves-113
⭐️Twins-1-120
⭐️Dodgers-128
⭐️Cleveland/Chicago Over 8.5 (Umpire over)
⭐️KC/Tampa Over 8-125 (Umpire over)
Cleveland-0.5-130 (F5)
Padres+126
Toronto+103
Yanks/Reds Over 8.5-130
Cleveland-1.5-118 (Full game)
Angels-101
Reds+1.5-123
Baltimore-0.5+105 (F5)
Boston-0.5+100 (F5/First 5 innings)
Brewers/Rocks Over 10-135 (Umpire Over)
LA/Arizona Over 8-125
Mets/Nats Over 8.5-125
A's/Angels Over 8-120
Boston/Miami Over 7.5-120


***First Umpire Over is Cards/Pirates Over 8.5 with Erich Bacchus whose 15 games avg 9.67 runs, for a 9-5 Over record, on 63% strikes and 2.3 SO/BB Ratio. last year or 30 games, he was 16-14 over, but over 9 runs, on 64% strikes. The previous 2 betweeen these 2 went over,and the over has cashed 4 out of STL last 5 games as well as 4 out of last 5 in Pitt. I see this over trend continuing today.

***2nd Umpire Over is KC/Tampa Over 8 with Adrian Johnson who is 12-6 to the over on 10.5 runs, a low 62% strike call and low 2.13 SO/BB Ratio. Both pitchers carry around a 4 ERA so there should be some run scoring opportunities on both side, and especially when the bullpens get involved. i had this at 8 runs but with Johnson behind the dish and his avg of near 1.5 run impact per game, i have this over 9 runs.

***3rd Umpire over is Clev/Chicago Over 8.5 with Will Little whose games are 4-1 over on 11.8 runs and a low 62% strike call with 2.3 SO/BB Ratio, last year was similar in 30 games he avg 10 runs per game on 62.9% strike call and 2.4 SO/BB Ratio. The over is 5-5 between these 2 with the avg runs pert game at just under 9 runs per game; White sox are allowing 4.5 runs last 10 games while guardians are allowing 53 runs over last 10 games, so much like last 2 nights that saw a combined 23 runs, I expect more offense today.

**4th Umpire Over is Brewers/Rocks Over 10 with Derek Thomas who is 9-5 over on 9.5 runs, and 62.3% strikes and a very low 2.1 SO/BB Ratio. Last year in 20 games he also averaged 9.5 runs per game. The over is 6-3-1 between these 2 last 10 games, and with Coors park being rated at 113 most hitter friendly park by far, combined with a hitter friendly ump and a whind jetting out to home run territory this night game should go over.

 

[inzane]

Good luck today Pirate and Happy Independence Day!!!

 

[piratealew]

Thank you, buddy, hope you and your family have a fantastic 4th!

This over was one i was on the fence until Wegner was announced, one of the best Over umps...


***5th Umpire Over is Phillies/Cubbies Over 7.5 with-103 with Mark Wegner who is 8-3-1 over this year, on a whopping 10.3 runs, with a low 2.13 SO/BB Ratio on 63% strikes. He's always been pro hitter, just the last 3 years or 77 games, he's 61.3% over for 9.9 runs w/63% strikes on 2.16 SO/BB Ratio. I had this game pegged for 7-8 with the wind and pitching at Wrigley but with his 1.4 run impact I could see this game hitting 9 or more

Umpire Under=6-3
***1st Umpire UNDER is Braves/Giants UNDER 8.5-125 with Sean Barber, a pitcher friendly ump who is 8-5 under this year on just over 8 runs per game and over 64% strikes. Last year he called 64% strikes, had a 3.0 SO/BB ration and again had a 19-13 Under record with just over 8 runs. We cashed the under last night easily with another pitcher friendly ump and matchip and today's pitching again calls fo ris as giants are 15th in slug with a .393 while braves are 12th with a 4.02 team slug % this year. Webb is 2-2 with a 3.8 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 40 innings (6 starts) in June while Morton was 2-2 with a 3.1 ERA and awesme .194 Opposing BA in 5 starts. The over should be again in play this game.

 

[piratealew]

^The above last sentence should say the under should be in play this game. Freudian slip of my keyboard, must know I love overs.

adding:
Phillies-119 (F5)
Dodgers-110 (F5)

 

[BMR Genie]

Good luck, Pirate and happy 4th of July.

 

[JDS]

59% on your totals through nearly 200 games is very impressive

 

[jjgold]

The whole key too baseball you can’t lay a lot of juice

 

[piratealew]

Thank you Genie, JJ and JDS. Happy 4th to you all. and the totals especially with the umpire influence have been consistently hitting, definitely helps taking in 3 angles, with the umpire data helping. Hope it keeps up at this pace!

For those playing Copa later...

Euro/Copa=7-2 Tues

Argentina-1+150/Over 1.5 team goals-110

 

[piratealew]

***6th Umpire Over is LAA/Oakland Over 8 with Edwin Jiminez who is 9-7 over this year on Over 9 runs per game, which is about what he avg last year at 9 runs in 22 games. Sears has struggled all year and Angels have the worst pen in MLB at 30th and the over has cashed 4 out of the last 6 between these 2. There should be plenty of run scoring opportunities with the pitching and the umpire squeezing two pitchers who dont have the best control

 

[piratealew]

A good Thurs afternoon turned crap with the late games. Let's see what Friday payday Brings.

1033-917 YTD/ (523-464 Top plays) Umpire Overs=96-68 Umpire Under=7-3

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Reds-108
⭐️Guardians-1-114
⭐️NYY/Boston Over 8-115
⭐️Baltimore-1-135
⭐️Padres-111
⭐️Texas-109
⭐️Braves-134
⭐️Chicago/Miami Over 8-120
⭐️Cubs-1-144
⭐️Cardinals-0.5-120 (F5/First 5 innings)
⭐️Red Sox+115 (F5)
⭐️Royals-0.5-125 (F5)
⭐️Dodgers/Brewers Over 7.5-115
Mets+116
Guardians-0.5-106 (F5)
Texas-110 (F5)
Padres/Dbags Over 8.5-112
Seattle-135
Twins-145
Cards-1-139 (Full game)
Dodgers-1-135
Royals-1.5-111
Tampa/Texas Over 8-120
White Sox+105
Giants/Guardians Over 8-120
Cards/Nats Over 8.5-120

 

[jjgold]

This kids a pure professional . Pirates What are you been up to lately?

 

[Wagerallsports]

GL pirate

 

[piratealew]

This kids a pure professional . Pirates What are you been up to lately?

Thanks, just been around here in VA hanging with the family, working on backyard doing some landscaping and changes, and finishing the rec area upstairs for rehab after my ACL surgery .
Hope you are well out there in the biggest little city, i believe i recall you're in Reno, excuse me if I'm mistaken. Wife lived in Reno years ago, and I used to travel there for work & Carson City (but spent months in Vegas)

 

[inzane]

Any ump over/unders today Pirate?

 

[piratealew]

None yet, no announcements yet. usually mid afternoon they do a big dump then the rest before first pitch of evening games. Yesterday was rare they released most very early but due to mostly day games.

 

[subaru80]

Fading ur pirates and Paul skenes?

 

[jjgold]

Thanks, just been around here in VA hanging with the family, working on backyard doing some landscaping and changes, and finishing the rec area upstairs for rehab after my ACL surgery .
Hope you are well out there in the biggest little city, i believe i recall you're in Reno, excuse me if I'm mistaken. Wife lived in Reno years ago, and I used to travel there for work & Carson City (but spent months in Vegas)

Northern Nevada is very underrated. I live here now.

 

[piratealew]

Fading ur pirates and Paul skenes?

nah, I am a Yankees fan. Pirates comes from ECU. Skenese is good young stud but i cant trust their offense or pen. Mets are still one of the hottest teams right now. Sevy has been dominant against these Pirates going 3-0, 0.53 ERA in 3 starts and they are + money? I'll take it.

 

[piratealew]

Umpire Unders 7-3

***1st Umpire Under is Mutts/Pirates UNDER 8-112 with Hunter Wendlestedt who is 13-5 under with a a PALTRY 6.7 runs per game. Some umps squeeze out runs, this guy kills runs and high scoring games. Most are expecting a pitcher dual as both are Aces throwing their best, with Skenes allowing just 1 run his last 3 starts working deep in 6 innings in each, lasting at least 6 innings in 7 of 9 starts, and Sevy just struck out his a season high 10 batters and 3 hits in his last game. The under has cashed in 5 of Pirates last 7 and tonight with 2 solid pitchers and a pitcher friendly umpire, this has under written all over it.