Monday July 1-Sunday July 7 MLB

[piratealew]

I was waiting on Umpire data before I pulled the trigger on the over on this one as I had it close but with Carlson, I have this going over the total

***1st Umpire Over is Toronto/Sea Over 7-115 with Mark Carlson who is avg 9 runs resulting in a 9-7 Over record on 63% striks and 2.4 SO/BB Ratio. Every year his games avg 9 or more going back to 2020 with last year hitting near 10 runs. Both pitchers have been shelled lately with Gausman GASMAN giving up 14 runs in his last 3 starts and Castillo 12 runs in his last 3, while they both carry a high ERA with Gasman at 4.75 and Castillo just under 4, in his last start against blow jays gave up 4 in 5 IP, While gasman gave up 4 in 6 IP against the mariners. I had this game hitting 7-8 but with Mark behind the dish I could see this going over much more likely.

 

[piratealew]

***2nd Umpire Over is ⭐️Houston/Minn Over 8 with Charlie Ramos who is avg 9.44 runs per game, is 10-7 to the over on 63% strikes and 2.4 SO/BB Walks. Both pitchers carry a near 5 ERA so lot of potential for big innings, and Houston is going with a bullpen game after the opener. The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games, and 4 of Twins last 5 games and 6 of their last 7 at home and with a light 10mph breeze to right with Ramos and his near 1.5 run impact per game, i have this going to 9-10+. This is a top play.

***2nd Umpire UNDER is Philly/ATL UNDER 8-125 with Laz Diaz who is 9-8 UNDER on 8.7 runs, and a high 65% strikes, while in a full yr last year he was 16-6 UNDER on 7.7 runs per game. Tonight 2 CY young hopefulls go at it with Nola and Fried both carrying great records and ERA's tonight and even more impressive against division rivals as Nola has a 3.03 against the Division while Fried has a 1.16 ERA. The Under is 11-2 in Fried starts and the braves are 13-3 under last 16. Philly's offense is stil watered down missing 2 stars and with a pitcher friendly umpire and 2 cy young contenders, the over should be a good play.

 

[piratealew]

***3rd Umpire Over is ⭐️Dodgers/Brewers Over 7.5 with Brian Walsh who is 10-7 Over in '24 on 9.28 runs per game. He is a newer ump but very consistent last 2 years, as he was 8-5 Over last year on just over 9 runs. Over the last 10 games, the dodgers are 7-3 OVER, and a perfect 6 for 6 over last 6, while the brewers are 7-4 over against the NL west in '24. Civale carries over a 5 ERA so this potent LAD lineup should feast, and Glasnow while solid is prone to the long ball and a a few runs a game. Last game he gave up 5 in 3IP to the giants.

 

[jjgold]

Pirates has every angle covered

 

[canuckg]

Ump stats lol. What are we doing here?

 

[nutter]

Question about Ramos. Two years prior to this year he is 21-33 to the under. Do you think he continues to be over ump this year or regression back to under?

 

[piratealew]

Question about Ramos. Two years prior to this year he is 21-33 to the under. Do you think he continues to be over ump this year or regression back to under?

I think he's found a wider strike zone as he's trending more and more the other way. He is a younger and newer ump so it's common for them to start out with a tighter zone that expands as they get comfortable and more experience calling balls and strikes. Also often they will adjust their zone after their yearly reviews. He's also had a low SO/BB Ratio throughout so maybe he had bad luck with lower scores early.

 

[piratealew]

Padres+108 (F5/First 5 innings)

 

[piratealew]

Orioles-0.5-110 (F5)

 

[piratealew]

⭐️Dodgers-0.5-130 (F5)

 

[subaru80]

Fading paul skenes seems like a bad idea just saying

 

[piratealew]

Fading paul skenes seems like a bad idea just saying

Hindsight is always 20/20 but no one was fading Paul Skenes. In fact, I've rode him to a few W's before, the mutts just made some bad pitching mistakes. Mets came into the game much hotter team and still are, it's tough to trust Pitt offense most nights and outside of last night, they rarely give him run support. Sevy had them down 2-0 and made a dumb throwing error and then gave up a homer after his frustration as the wheels came off. it's baseball. cant win them all everyday. jeez.

 

[piratealew]

Busy Saturday, taking kids to water park for a few hours while it's 100 with 110 heat index. GL to all.

1046-932 YTD/ (529-470 Top plays) Umpire Overs=98-69 Umpire Under=7-5

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Mets-125
⭐️Cardinals+115
⭐️Tampa-101
⭐️Astros+110
⭐️Phillies-102
⭐️Cards/Nats Over 9-115 (Umpire Over)
⭐️Cubs-137
⭐️Tampa/Texas Over 7.5-120 (Umpire Over)
⭐️Baltimore-1-135 (Full game)
⭐️Reds-139 (Full game)
⭐️Royals-1-135
⭐️Brewers/Dodgers Over 8-120 (Umpire Over)
Giants+115
Brewers+104
Orioles-0.5-115 (F5/First 5 innings)
Royals-0.5-110 (F5)
Giants/Guards Over 8-130
Padres/Dbags Over 7.5-110
Padres-114
Red Sux+1.5-129
White Sox-0.5-110 (F5)
Red Sox/Yanks Over 8.5-120
Astros/Twins Over 7.5-112
Balt/Oak Over 8.5-110

***First Umpire Over is ⭐️Cards/Nats Over 9 with Bruce Drekman whose games are 13-3 over on 11.75 runs. Hes one of the best Over umpires around this year. 7 of the last 8 games between these 2 have gone over, including last night. Cards are hitting a whopping .280 with a .486 slug in Wash last 5 games, while both teams have pitching staffs in the bottom half of MLB in BAA and Whip, with the cards having a higher ERA on the road at 3.98. Nats have also gone over the total 3 of the last 4 and with these 2 teams and Drekman, be ready for scoring and fireworks.

***2nd Umpire Over is ⭐️Tampa/Texas Over 7.5 with Andy Fletcher who is 15-2 Over. I mentioned before he's almost an AUTO over play this year as he is avg 12.72 runs per game. His games have gone over 10 straight and i've rode him all year. I had this game prior to umpire news at 8, with andy's announcement I added 1.5 as that is his avg run impact pushing this well over the total.

***3rd Umpire Over is ⭐️Brewers/Dodgers Over 8 with Edwin Moscoso another big over Ump who is 11-6 over this year on 9.22 runs and 63% strkes and a low 2.5 SO/BB ratio. Last yr he was 23-10 over on over 10 runs. The over has cashed in 7 of Dodgers last 7 straight game, and much like last night I see another Double digit game once the pens get involved.

Forgot to post the EURO/COPA yesterday as usual (posted on another forum and telegram group). Hit 5-3 again with spain and france, so we try again today.

Euro
Netherland-1+155/BTTS-110/Over 2.5 goals-125

England ML+130/Btts+120

 

[Wagerallsports]

GL today & Enjoy the park

 

[piratealew]

Blow Jays+108

 

[jjgold]

Toronto underachieved every single year

 

[piratealew]

Toronto underachieved every single year

Yes they have, very inconsistent again this year. Think they steal one today from a pitcher who hasnt pitched in the show in a few weeks.

Copa
Colombia-1-110/Over 2.5 goals
Urguay Draw No bet +110/Uruguay+220/BTTS+110

 

[inzane]

Thanks and good luck Pirate.

Stay cool and have fun with the little ones...

 

[piratealew]

One more for Euro:


England to Qualify

 

[piratealew]

***4th Umpire Over is KC/Colorado Over 10-115 with Larry Vanover who rates out at in the extreme hitter friendly category below Moscoso, and above Johnson and Carlson mostly due to leniency on the hitters which this yr has resulted in 8-8 Over on 9 runs and a low 2.4 SO/BB Ratio but last year he was 10-3 Over on 11.6 runs and 61.5% strikes. I'm more selective with Coors field overs but this situation with this umpire I have the game reaching 11 runs. The wind is also jetting left to center right at about 15 and Gomber and Lugo both are prone to the long ball.