Nicholls St. +150

[KingKolzig]

Another winner by this guy....
He needs to get laid so that he'll be distracted and the books don't go broke.

I bet he looks polar opposite to Brock landers

 

[Tanko]

I bet he looks polar opposite to Brock landers

LMAO.

 

[JDS]

I bet he looks polar opposite to Brock landers

Facts.

 

[fiftycint]

Nice win JDS

 

[JDS]

Nice win JDS

Appreciate it man

 

[pipe]

Appreciate it man

You was spot on. Told ya ml and spread was golden.

 

[KVB]

But I think the entire market is looking like the "skurred book" out here. This is what I'm seeing

I want to drive something home here tonight.

These things happen, the market gets skurred. It takes patience to recognize when it does as sometimes, many times, it's not what it appears.

But when it does, I believe a different set of probabilities come into play here. It's not what it seems in the market, and it contributes to my regret of not getting Nicholls +200 and my willingness to not close the +160 position.

In fact could have hit Nichols a few more times if you take those alternates sets of probabilties into account. The market has to face two sets of probabilities and gets "skurred" of one of them.

Somebody at FD coming out of PA was playing to those probabilities, both pre game and in game.

Oh somebody at FD out of PA knew alright.

They fukkin knew.

 

[KVB]

The market has to face two sets of probabilities and gets "skurred" of one of them.

But what about Pinny?

-165
+135

That's a hold of 4.6% and at this point and notice they have a no vig line of -146/+146

Crazy.

When I first made this post I didn't put the no vig price, I wrote that Pinny didn't want action from anybody. I deleted that and changed the info.

I wanted to come back to it after we saw the close.

Look at that line, look at what Pinny dealt all day, and the close.

Given the circumstance described, you can see Pinny didn't want any action form anyone on either side of the market. One way to look at it is that they didn't stop the dog the got thier fill of the favorite and went to -165 to cut it off.

The spent all day avoiding action once they were satisfied and weren't about to show the dog action they did receive, but could endure because of the favorite action from earlier.

There are tells, and sometimes the market simply shows it's cards. Having the patience to wait for those times is essential.

Pinny was happy with theoretical hold % they were showing and avoided any movements that would tip money one way or the other, but mostly toward the dog.

Alright enough and good night.

@purplegrape

 

[billybobcoverz]

I could keep going about this game.

I realize this isn't a high volume game like Wake vs Duke or WV vs TCU, but a little example is showing up in how this trades.

The market is priced to keep taking that favorite on the moneyline, potential public money, while it limits the dog price. Not opening up.

@purplegrape @JDS @pete0 @billybobcoverz @k310 @613tunit and others...Look around 21:30 in this video. And let's watch how this game trades...

I understand this, but just am curious how you look at sharp vs public money...there are so many factors to consider, like which books are moving, what r limits, when etc...how do you filter the noise?

 

[theriver55]

Good call JDS. You are on point.

 

[JDS]

Good call JDS. You are on point.

Not as good as your source.

 

[theriver55]

Not as good as your source.

LOL. When the dust settles let's see what happens. I have been getting lucky picking his winners. For instance, his first play on board yesterday was WF +7. I usually look for his totals first. Then dogs and small favs. sent you a message.

 

[JDS]

LOL. When the dust settles let's see what happens. I have been getting lucky picking his winners. For instance, his first play on board yesterday was WF +7. I usually look for his totals first. Then dogs and small favs. sent you a message.

Second straight contest, you have benefited from this man’s craft. I say great job at selectively spotting all these wins it’s impressive.

 

[theriver55]

Second straight contest, you have benefited from this man’s craft. I say great job at selectively spotting all these wins it’s impressive.

wrong JDS. the NCAAF contest I did not use his leans. I read reviews of the games and made my own plays. And the last 6 plays I dropped down I used no reviews. Just my gut vibe. But this gentlemen does seem to know the NCAAF and NCAAB landscape pretty well. My friend who told me about him did well this year in NCAAF using his picks. THX.

 

[JDS]

wrong JDS. the NCAAF contest I did not use his leans. I read reviews of the games and made my own plays. And the last 6 plays I dropped down I used no reviews. Just my gut vibe. But this gentlemen does seem to know the NCAAF and NCAAB landscape pretty well. My friend who told me about him did well this year in NCAAF using his picks. THX.

Oh ok gotcha you are on some kind of a run, with all these contest picks, keep it going rivers.

 

[theriver55]

Oh ok gotcha you are on some kind of a run, with all these contest picks, keep it going rivers.

THX JDS. This game can run in cycles as you know. But look at your records and they are very impressive. Take away one bad decision (BALT/KC Game) and you are hitting on all cylinders. Keep it going.

 

[JDS]

THX JDS. This game can run in cycles as you know. But look at your records and they are very impressive. Take away one bad decision (BALT/KC Game) and you are hitting on all cylinders. Keep it going.

I can’t disagree with any of that spot on lol.

 

[BMR Genie]

Great job! Congrats on the win, JDS!

 

[JDS]

Great job! Congrats on the win, JDS!

Thanks Genie