PGA: The BMW Championship (8.17-8.20) - Olympia Fields, IL.

[JDS]

going with all the south koreans don't let me down

tom kim +3500
sung im +3500
an +5000
si woo kim +6000

The Asians been dominating the LPGA tour the last decade, and now the men are showing what they have the last few years it’s nice to see the diversity.

 

[BMR Genie]

Good luck this week, guys!

 

[Pimike]

Homa definitely a pick

not sure how you leave Roy off. Doesn’t pay much but he is good.

This course will require a lot from the winner. It will be a very low score

 

[KVB]

Fukk, lines are moving so I have to post these plays now.

I'll write more about the course later but I picked up these playoff Top Finish bets according to a slightly modified playoff version of the Golf Course x Strokes gained Top Finish strategy.

BMW	Cam Davis Top 20 Finish +130 at DK
17-Aug	Sam Burns Top 20 Finish +125 at DK
	Byeong Hun An Top 20 Finish +115 at DK

I'm not sure just how I intened to track these as it is a slightly modified playoff version of what I have posted recently at BMR.

Good Luck.

 

[KVB]

Here are two plays that were just outside my target range but could still have been made and still reserve the right to pull the trigger on these.

Plays just on the radar but not bought, they are just on the edge of the target...

Wyndham Clark Top 20 Finish +105 at DK

Sahith Theegala Top 20 Finish +180 at DK

Again, these were not bought but strongly considered.

 

[KVB]

Finally, here the results of Golf Course X Strokes Gained Top Finish strategy so far that I've posted. I never did post the summary for Wyndham, which ended +2.15 units, so it will link to this post in the next summary.

There are links here to the original plays posted and older summary (3M Open) here as well...

Wyndham	Alex Noren Top 20 Finish +350 at BOL	-1
3-Aug	Cam Davis Top 20 Finish +225 at DK	2.25
	J.T. Poston Top 20 Finish +160 at DK	1.6
	Denny McCarthy Top 20 Finish +150 at DK	-1
	Alex Noren Top 30 Finish +170 at DK	-1
	Cam Davis Top 30 Finish +130 at DK	1.3
	Wyndham	2.15
	3M Open July 27th	-0.7
	Total	1.45

Again, I still haven't figured out if it's appropriate for me to track these playoffs separately, but I'm inclined to.

As many know, I will track, with links, what I do post.

But as we get under the hood, I do want to track appropriately.

 

[KVB]

...This course, this week, could end up playing as the toughest course all season. It will probably the highest scoring winner so far, at maybe -5 or -6, I don't think we see double digits here, but we measure the toughest course, usually, by thte average to par, so the winner doesn't tell us everything...

While it's true that long ball hitters will have an advantage here and accuaracy does take a small backseat, despite the heavy rough that will be at the tourney, that high humidity will make this course a little softer than it was when Rahm won in 2020, when the area was in drought and the temps were in the 90's.

This year there is much more humidity and we might even see some thunderstorms on Thursay.

It won't be as hot on the thermometer, but that humidity can add some degrees and make it tougher.

That humidity will also make things a little softer and tee shots will be less likely to run into that rough and then the thicker rough.

I still don't think we see double digits under par, and I expect the driving accuracy to be tough like last time, but it appears it might not be as tough as last time.

The same might hold true for the greens.

 

[KVB]

Last time, in 2020, these greens were subject to drought and heat and they were out there hand watering these greens at one point to keep them alive.

They should be softer now, but DJ and Rahm, who were in a playoff in 2020, used those fast greens to their advantage with a couple of awesome putts.

DJ made one to get into the playoff, then Rahm finished him off with an even wilder putt...

 

[BigJay]

JT Poston $2.49 to win $200.51

 

[Pimike]

Adding

Fowler
Roy of course

 

[BigJay]

JT Poston $2.49 to win $200.51

Winning!

 

[Pimike]

Stop the match now and pay the man

 

[BigJay]

Still winning!

 

[jjgold]

I will watch last few holes Sunday if a so called name is there

 

[slickfazzer]

I will watch last few holes Sunday if a so called name is there

thanks JJ, we will keep you posted.

 

[KVB]

A lot of golfers under par early. Course is a bit soft with the humidity, hole locations through weekend could matter.

I realize I didn't go into the course much like I was supposed to. The fairways and greens here are Bentgrass Poa Annua and one of the reasons we liked Homa here is not just his current form and skillset for the course, but his success on this type of grass. I think 4 of his 6 wins are on these types of greens.

The rough is Kentucky Bluegrass and the first cut is 4 inches, which is pretty high. As we get away from the cut the grass can be even higher and likely will be trampled a bit by the gallery. A little punishment there for missing the fairways bad.

In 2020 we had COVID and there were no fans to trample, some of that grass was 8 inches high.

 

[KVB]

Here are two plays that were just outside my target range but could still have been made and still reserve the right to pull the trigger on these.

Plays just on the radar but not bought, they are just on the edge of the target...

Wyndham Clark Top 20 Finish +105 at DK

Sahith Theegala Top 20 Finish +180 at DK

Again, these were not bought but strongly considered.

Fukk, I know it's early, but these are probably going to win.

Discipline isn't just keeping yourself from making a lot of needless bets and -EV bets, discipline can also be to make sure you bet +EV, or what you see such, when the opportunities come your way.

I did not do it here and it's a break in discipline.

 

[Pimike]

Iron play key

 

[KVB]

Iron play key

Seems like it but in the end it will be like the vast majority of PGA courses, including this course.

Driving distance will be more predictive of tourney success that any other metric.

Driving accuracy is not as important but the approach and iron play figures to be right up there this weekend.

Rory has the edge in distance and the rest of the game. Hence a reason he had to be bought.

DK adding +300 to the Rory +650 was pretty sweet bonus/boost.

 

[Pimike]

Seems like it but in the end it will be like the vast majority of PGA courses, including this course.

Driving distance will be more predictive of tourney success that any other metric.

Driving accuracy is not as important but the approach and iron play figures to be right up there this weekend.

Rory has the edge in distance and the rest of the game. Hence a reason he had to be bought.

DK adding +300 to the Rory +650 was pretty sweet bonus/boost.

I got him too