Saturday June 1-Saturday June 8 MLB

[piratealew]

11-8 Fri/647-563 YTD/ (340-274 Top plays) Umpire Overs=27-7

Hit the #1 Orioles and another umpire over. Hope this week brings us more winners.

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Brewers-144
⭐️Mets-124
⭐️Orioles-148
⭐️Twins+117
⭐️Cleveland-139
⭐️Royals+108
⭐️Yankees+110
⭐️Mariners/Angels Over 7-130
⭐️Tigers-102
⭐️Texas/Miami Over 7.5-120
Rangers-115
Phillies-136
Reds+110
Pittsburgh+143
Braves-1.5-135
Mariners-1-106
Rockies Team Total Over 2.5-105
Milwaukee/Chicago Over 7-135
Royals/Padres Over 8-130
Baltimore/Tampa Over 7-130

Still waiting on Final Umpire Assignments. Not every total with a hitter friendly umpire is a play. I consider hitting/pitching and H2H stats, weather and if the ump can add a run or 2 then I make it a play, and that's based on several metrics, O/U more importantly Runs per game, SO/BB ratios, Strike call ratio, and Walks.

 

[piratealew]

The more I think about the Rockies game, I am going to play the total larger as a top play due to the above trends and hot rockies bats. I may take a stab at the rockies small on ML but bigger on the RL for insurance. 2 plays on rockies game, Rockies TT over and the Rockies RL +2.5

⭐️Rockies Team Total Over 2.5-105

Rockies+2.5-120

 

[piratealew]

***First Umpire Over-Detroit/Boston Over 8-135--I had this game pegged right around the total at 9 runs, with both teams averaging 4.3 runs per game, detroit allowing 4.2, and Boston 3.9, this game should be able to get to the total on the hitting, but we also have one of the more hitter friendly umps in the game, Todd Tichenor, who is the rated the 4th most hitter friendly umpire in the extreme category. This year, he's 6-4 to the over, averaging 9.8 runs per game (almost a full 2 runs over today's total). His SO/BB ratio is 2.5, which isn't good for pitchers, on 64% called striked. Only 4 have gone under today's total at 6, 13, 11, 10, 13, 7, 16, 5, 7, 10. Over his last 2 years or 66 games, 52.4% of his games have gone over, averaging 9.5 runs per game in that time. I'll play this over with a bit more confidence the umpire will not be a hindrance to the hitters.

 

[piratealew]

The ERA for his games is 4.9 (awful for pitching

 

[piratealew]

Mariners and Reds ML are also top plays

 

[piratealew]

***4th Umpire Over--Also a play from above-Mariners/Angels Over 7---This game should see plenty of runs due to the pitching and angels scoring potential, but Mark Wegner is behind home plate in this game, he's 7-3-1 to the oer , 10.4 average runs per game, on 63.7% called strikes, on a low 2.11 SO/BB ratio-His games have gone scoring wise like this 14, 11, 9, 7, 4, 21, 5, 13, 8, 10, 12. Only 2 games have gone under this total. The avg ERA in his games is a high 4.8.

 

[piratealew]

A good afternoon so far, 8-4, cashed the #1 and #3 top plays, and hit 2 umpire overs, pushed the 3rd. Now 29-7 umpire overs. Hope everyone has been cashing in on these.

 

[piratealew]

***5th Umpire over is a new play---New York/San Francisco Over 7-130--These 2 hit 8 runs last night and was eyeing the over based on the hitting of these 2 teams of late, with the yankees leading the majors in hitting. Umpiring this game is Nick Mahrley who rates as a very hitter friendly ump, 7-4 to the over this year, good for 63.6%, on 10.1 runs per game, with a 2.44 SO/BB ration on 64% called strikes. The ERA for his games is a very high 5.0. only 2 of the 11 games he's umped have gone under going 9, 16, 16, 12, 4, 4, 10, 7, 9, 17, 7. His last game in SFO was May 14th in a dodgers/giants game trhat netted 12 runs with 2 ground ball pitchers much like tonight. With another west wind to center-right of about 10-15 mph, we might see some more Judge magic. I had this game pegged at about 8 runs, and with the help from Nick we might see this cash easier.

New York/San Francisco Over 7-130

 

[doyleellis11]

Thank You for all your hard work a posting !

 

[phantom888]

***5th Umpire over is a new play---New York/San Francisco Over 7-130--These 2 hit 8 runs last night and was eyeing the over based on the hitting of these 2 teams of late, with the yankees leading the majors in hitting. Umpiring this game is Nick Mahrley who rates as a very hitter friendly ump, 7-4 to the over this year, good for 63.6%, on 10.1 runs per game, with a 2.44 SO/BB ration on 64% called strikes. The ERA for his games is a very high 5.0. only 2 of the 11 games he's umped have gone under going 9, 16, 16, 12, 4, 4, 10, 7, 9, 17, 7. His last game in SFO was May 14th in a dodgers/giants game trhat netted 12 runs with 2 ground ball pitchers much like tonight. With another west wind to center-right of about 10-15 mph, we might see some more Judge magic. I had this game pegged at about 8 runs, and with the help from Nick we might see this cash easier.

New York/San Francisco Over 7-130

Saved me today
Thanks!

 

[piratealew]

Saved me today
Thanks!

Glad to hear it! hope we keep winning!

13-9 Saturday/4-0 Umpire Overs (with a push)/660-572 YTD/ (346-281 Top plays) Umpire Overs=29-7

Really good saturday, cashed 4 umpire overs again easy, pushed 1, been a good MLB run last 3 days, Hope for another one, on a wild Sunday

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Baltimore-134
⭐️Yankees-135
⭐️Cubs-115
⭐️Phillies-130
⭐️Twins+125
⭐️LAA/Seattle Over 7-115 (Umpire Over-See writeup)
⭐️Boston-134
⭐️Texas-120
⭐️SD/KC Over 8-115 (Umpire Over-see Writeup)
⭐️Toronto-1-110
⭐️Milwaukee/Chicago Over 7.5-115
Brewers-1.5-134
Royals-123
Mariners-1-129
Mets+102
Washington+125 (F5-first 5 innings)
LA Dodgers-1.5-120
Yankees/Gigantes over 7.5-115 (May raise to a top play later)
Toronto/Shittsburgh Pirates Over 8-120
Texas/Miami Over 8-120
Boston/Detroit Over 8.5-125
Oakland/Atlanta Over 8.5-115

***1st umpire over is LAA/SEATTLE Over7 which was already a play based on the hitting/pitching again. Today we have one of our favorite hitter friendly Umpires in this game with Bruce Dreckman who is 10-1 to the over, good for 90.9%, with a WHOPPING avg ERA of 6.4 in his games, and a 2.6 SO/BBB ratio on 64% called strikes. Only one game has gone under today's total of 7, as they have gone 20, 9, 14, 11, 18, 6, 13, 14, 12, 13, 16.......12 OR 13 Seem to be this guys lucky numbers. There's a reason his games have gone so high even with stud aces like Dean Kremer vs Alec Marsh, Irvin vs Cutter Crawford, and Fried vs Nola ALL of these shut down pitcher duals resulted in DOUBLE DIGIT RUNS. These 2 teams seem to go over a lot, with Canning on the mound who is underwhelming with 2-4/5.08 ERA record, along with the Angels 28th ranked bullpen with a 4.71 reliever EA, I had this game pegged about 8-9 runs, and with Bruce behind the plate, we should get some added help for the over.

***2nd Umpire over is San Dog Chaplains/KC Royals Over 8-115---also already a play based on the pitching/hitting, but now I see MIKE MULCHINSKI is the umpire, who is 5-5 to the over but more importantly is averaging a whopping 11 runs in his games, with none being in colorado. Only 3 have gone under today's posted total of 8, seeing 11, 19, 6, 8, 3, 20, 7, 12, 16, 8. Pitching in his games have netted a very high 5.3, on just over 64% called strikes and a 2.8 SO/BB ratio. Over his last 3 seasons or 69 games, his games average 9.7 runs per game, and 53% have gone over. Mike behind the plate should help as well these 2 teams combined for 19 runs in the first game of the series, and 10 yesterday, with these 2 teams being 2 of the top 11 most productive offenses this year with the royals avg 5.6 runs per game at home this year. Padres are putting up 5.2 runs per game on the road this eyar. KC has scored at least 6 runs in 9 of their last 12. With Mike's help, this one may soar past the total again.

 

[piratealew]

Umpire overs should be 31-7.

 

[piratealew]

***3rd umpire Over is already a play above Tortonto/Pitt over 8-120, this game features Erich Bacchus who is 7-3-1 to the over, averages 10.27 runs per game across 11 games going like this 16, 5, 9, 3, 5, 23, 11, 11, 12, 9, 9. Only 3 games out of the 11 have gone under today's total. He has a strike call ratio at about 64%, with a SO/K ratio of 2.54, with 2.3 Home Runs on avg in his games. I have added comfort in this over with Bacchus behind home plate.

 

[piratealew]

⭐️Dodgers/Rockies Over 7.5-130
Phils/Cards Over 9-120

 

[piratealew]

12-10 Sunday

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Reds-104
⭐️Orioles-105
⭐️Astros-1-120
⭐️Nationals-113
⭐️Chaplains/Angels Over 8-112
⭐️Giants+120
Tigers-102
Brewers+1.5-110
Angels+125
Frisco/Zona Over 8.5-120
Balty/Toronto Over 7.5-110
Nats/Mutts Over 8-115

No Umpire Assignments as of yet. Hit 1-2 yesterday on umpire overs, now 32-9.

 

[piratealew]

***First Umpire Over is already a play above-Balty/Toronto Over 7.5-110- This game features Phil Cuzzi-who is 6-2-2- to the over this year, good for 75%, on 10.3 runs per game, with a S0/BB ratio of 2.4, and a strike call ratio of 64%. Only 2 games have gone under tongiths total in his 10, going 11, 7, 18, 15, 7, 9, 3, 14, 9, 10. Helping the run total tonight are two pitchers who have been hittable lately in simlar splits, and an Oriole offense leading the majors in Home run rate. In the month of May, the Blow Jays hit more home runs and a higher Batting average than their expected forecast. With 2 teams slugging of late, and Cuzzi squeezing both pitchers, I am taking the over with more confidence.

 

[piratealew]

A great monday, 7-5, hit the top 3 plays for a good payout and 1-0 umpire overs. Now 33-9 umpire overs.

679-587 YTD/ (353-291 Top plays) Umpire Overs=33-9

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Orioles-1-129
⭐️Royals+105
⭐️Yankees-1-109
⭐️Padres+100
⭐️Dodgers-1-140
⭐️Seattle-1-110
⭐️Marlins+103
⭐️Reds-119
⭐️Texas+105
⭐️Cardinals/Asstros Over 8.5-120 (Umpire Over-See writeup)
⭐️Phillies/Brewers Over 8.5-112 (Umpire Over-see Writeup)
Giants+106
Phillies-1-114
Cubs-1.5-130
Braves-150
Cardinals+130
Orioles/Blow Jays Over 8-115 (Umpire Over-See writeup)
Braves/Nats Over 7.5-120
Padres/Angels Over 8-135
Royals/Guardians Over 8-130

****First Umpire Over today is Cards/Astros over 8.5---with Jordan Baker behind the plate, who is 6-5 to the over but averaging 9.5 runs per game, with 5 games going under today's total but plenty of double digit games on 63.8% called strikes this year. His games have gone 17, 11, 3, 12, 7, 7, 10, 6, 5, 15, 11. None of his games were in Colorado and some of his highest run scoring games were in pitcher friendly parks with solid Aces going (17 in Milwaukee last game with Feede and Myers) or 11 with Marsh vs ryan (KC at Minn). Over his last 2 years of work or 72 games, 56% have gone over with 9.5 runs per game again on 63% called strikes and the ERA this year for his games is a high 4.5. Helping matters in this game is Spaghetting Arrrghetti for Houston and Pallante who both dont provide much length and Spaghetti outside of last start has been a gas can with little control. Cards have the 19th best hitting team at .283 and Houston is a little better at .287. This game should get some help from Baker squeezing 2 young pitchers and their bullpens.

***2nd Umpire Over is Balt/Toronto Over 8---with Tony Randazzo behind the plate--also 6-5 to the over, averaging 9.5 runs on 63% called strikes and a 2.27 SO/BB ratio (not good for pitching). His games have gone like this with only 4 going under today's total---14, 14, 4, 8, 4, 6, 11, 17, 7, 9, 13, with none in colorado. Over 58 games in his last 3 years, he's seen 55% go over, with 10 runs on average per game on 63.5% called strikes, with his AL games seeing an even greater bump at 13-6 to the over or 68.4% over with 11.2 runs per game. The ERA for his games is a high 4.7. Toronto's SP tonight Francis has an over 8 ERA, and allowed 5 runs in his 2 starts across 3 innings before getting moved to the bullpen. He's allowed 14 runs on 4 homers and 18 hits in just 14 innings Toronto's bats have gotten a bit hotter as well so they should be able to contribute a few runs tonight as well. With Randazzo behind the plate, I'll take this with more confidence.

***3rd Umpire Over is Brewers/Phils Over 8.5 with Alan Porter--who rates also a hitter friendly ump, not as friendly as a few others but he's in the right category, with a 4-6 O/U record this year, he's averaging 9.2 runs per game on 63.8% called strikes. His games have gone 15, 7, 5, 3, 10, 8, 23, 4, 9, 8. Over his last 2 years of 71 games he's seen 61% go over, on 9.5 runs per game, and 63.9% called strikes. In the national league which is where this game is he's een his numbers go up to 64.5% over and 10.2 runs per game. Both teams enter tonight as the 2 top scoring offenses in MLB with both being the only teams to go over 300 runs at this point in the season. Brewers look to be using mostly a pen day with Rea as opener. Brewers are 3-1-1 to the over last 5 and averaging just over 5 runs per game while Phils have scored 23 runs in their last 5 games, just under 5 runs per game,. With a hitter friendly ump in Alan Porter behind the plate and these 2 teams, I have more confidence this one goes over.

 

[piratealew]

Left this one off ⭐️Nats+101

and braves over above should say Braves/Red Sox over

 

[doyleellis11]

Thank You Mr Pirate !

 

[piratealew]

I noticed Edwin Moscoso is the ump in Chicago tonight, who is very hitter friendly-going back many years, 6-4 Over this year,(23-10 last year), averaging double digits or near DD most years. However the pitching and recent hitting situations have given me pause especially considering the heavy weather moving in which most likely will result in a delay. I have the game hitting close to the total and wind is blowing out currently but may change completely once storms roll through so probably not a play on the total as of now. Will monitor the weather and wind before pitch. Right now wind is blowing out about 11 mph but these storms could change the wind completely.

adding another rare Under:

Detroit/Tejas UNDER 8.5-125