Cashed the #1 play for some + profit. 9-12 as Nats changed pitchers, got saved having listed pitchers on that one. 2-1 Umpire overs yesterday.
688-599 YTD/ (357-297 Top plays) Umpire Overs=35-10
*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.
⭐️Phillies-1-120
⭐️Reds-120
⭐️Yankees-1-118
⭐️Baltimore+112
⭐️Astros/Cards Over 8-125 (Umpire Over-See writeup)
⭐️Detroit/Texas Over 8.5-130 (Umpire Over-See writeup)
⭐️Astros-1-113
⭐️Mets-134
⭐️Giants+115
⭐️Padres/Angels Over 7-135 (Umpire Over-see Writeup)
⭐️Royals+115
⭐️Texas-125
Dodgers+105 (Skenes is pitching, Dodgers are cold but this may be a regression spot against a star-laden lineup/Bounceback spot for LA with a run diff +86, while Pitts is -25)
Padres-142
Cubs-1-131
Seattle-140
Red Sox-104
Marlins+112
Royals/Guardians Over 8-125
Phillies/Brewers Over 8.5-115
Giants/Dbacks Over 8-120
Reds/Rockies Over 11-130
2-1 Yesterday on Umpire Overs/35-10 YTD on Umpire Overs
***First Umpire Over is Detroit/Texas Over 8.5---this game features one of the best Hitter friendly umps around in Andy Fletcher, who is 9-2-1 to the over thsi year or 82%, with ONLY 61.9% called strikes (abnormally low), with a SO/BB ratio of 1.85 (ABYSMAL for pitching). The era for his games is a whopping 5.9! Only 2 games have gone under today's total of 8.5, landing on 8, his games have gone 10, 14, 8, 9, 11, 9, 18, 9, 16, 8, 12, 26. With Maeda on the mound and Urena, I do expect the pitching to get squeezed a lot today--Maeda already doesnt have solid command this year and has been wild. I expect a lot more runs this game than in the previous 2 and Andy will certainly favor the hitters today, helping the cause.
***2nd Umpire Over is Astros/Cards Over 8--with Mark Carlson, who is posting an abysmal 4.8 ERA for pitchers in hsi games, with 8-3 to the over in 2024, on 10.3 average runs per game with only 4 going under todays total, going like this 7, 6, 9, 11, 10, 21, 4, 5, 15, 11, 12, 13. He's calling a low 63.5% strikes, and is posting a 2.24 SO/BB ratio-bad for pitching, along with a high 4.8 ERA in his games. The starting pitching isnt't the best again today like last night and the bullpens have been struggling with St Louis ranked 19th with a 4.16 ERA and Houston is 22nd with a 4.28 ERA, along with the fact both offenses have been scoring a lot the last month, with the astros averaging 4.39 runs last 28 games and cards 4.44 in their last 25. With Mark's help, we get to the total early like last night.
***3rd Umpire Over is Padres/Angels Over 7---This game features one CB Bucknor, another well-known hitter friendly Umpire who is 7-3 to the over this year, on 10.1 runs per game, with a 2.7 SO/BB ratio, on 64% called strikes. His games have gone 9, 12, 2, 11, 6, 8, 16, 7, 17, 13. Already liked the over due to the pitching and situation but CB should help here, and may be responsible for adding another run or two to push us over the total.
No other umps quite qualify as of now. Chris Guccione in the Giants/Dbacks game has borderline positive metrics.
