Saturday June 1-Saturday June 8 MLB

[piratealew]

***3rd Umpire Over-Seatlle/KC Over 8.5-130--With Dan Bellino-who is 6-5 to the over this year on a whopping 10 runs avg in those 11, with a 2.61 SO/BB ratio calling 63% strikes. His games have gone 4, 13, 13, 14, 6, 13, 7, 9, 3, 11, 17. Over his last 2 years, 61.6% of 77 games have gone over averaging 9.8 runs on a 2.5 SO/BB ratio in that time. Added to this, the last 6 games played in KC between these 2 teams have gone over, and 6 of KC's last 7 games at home. Wind is blowing out 11-15 MPH to left and with some added umpire help, we may see this total early.

This total is a top play.

 

[piratealew]

Well, that seattle over was easy enough. wish the rest were. Another rare under play

adding:
Dbags/Padres UNDER 7.5-130

 

[piratealew]

Missed all the shenanigans late night dealing with a health issue for wife at ER but come back to see it was a weird Friday, Mariners blow a 7-0 lead, Blow Jays blow it in the 9th and guardians blow it late, at, least the Padres and Baltimore took care of biz, but pushed the big total on Angels over. Just didnt get the breaks Friday. First down day this week. Start a new streak this weekend hopefully.

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Twinks-117
⭐️Baltimore-130
⭐️Reds-113
⭐️Seattle/KC Over 8-130 (Umpire Over-see writeup)
⭐️Phillies-149
⭐️Braves-125
⭐️Boston/Chicago Over 8.5-120
⭐️Yanks-115
⭐️Toronto-1-120
⭐️Cardinals-1-120
⭐️Angels+140
Cleveland-148
Texas-120
Red Sox-1.5-128
Seattle-128
Tigers+150
Twinks/Pirates Over 8.5-120 (Umpire Over-see writeup)
Phillies/Mets Over 9.5-125 (Umpire Over-see writeup)
Oakland/Toronto Over 7.5-120
Baltimore/Tampa Over 7.5-120
Clev/Miami Over 8-115

Turns out I should have played the det/Mil over yesterday with Dreckman. Brewers got the over themselves. 1-2 Fri/38-16 umpire overs

***First Umpire Over is Seattle/KC Over 8---with Phil Cuzzi who rates as an extreme hitters friendly ump, posts an avg very high 4.7 ERA in his games, 7-2 to the over with 10.2 Runs per game, with only 3 games going under todays total with is games going 9, 11, 7, 18, 15, 7, 9, 3, 14, 9, 10. He calls about 64% strrikes and has a 2.59 SO/BB Ratio. These 2 combined for 19 runs last night, continuing the trend of 5 straight games between KC/SEA in KC have gone over, and the longer trend of 10 out of their last 13 games btw the 2 have gone over, as well as KC has seen 5 of its last 7 go over. I think it continues today with some help from Cuzzi.

***2nd Umpire Over is Twinks/Pirates Over 8.5 with Carlos Torres who has long rated as an extreme hitters friendly ump as he calls 62.9% strikes, and sees his games average 9.1 runs this yr in 12 games. The ERA for his games this yr is a 4.5. He has a long history of being hitter friendly as in his last 5 years or 147 games, he has seen 57% go over, on 9.8 average runs a game over that long time with just 63% called strikes.

***3rd Umpire Over is Phils/Mets Over 9.5---this game features another hitter friendly Ump in Mike Muchlinksi who averages 10.6 runs per game, on 64% called strikes, with a 2.7 SO/BB Ratio, he's seen his games go 7, 11, 19, 6, 8, 3, 20, 7, 12, 16, 8. His love of hitters and high scoring games goes back a while as in 2023 across 32 games his games avg 10.03 runs per game, 18-13 to the over, and over the last 3 hitters, he has a 52-44 record to the over for 54.2% on 9.6 runs per game. This game is also in London where the ball flies, and the park is much smaller than normal. Helping matters with the ump and the pitching matchup, The last 4 games in London all cleared this total, 30 runs, 20 runs, 10 runs and 12.

 

[Tanko]

Thanks for all the insight Pirate. Amazing how much information you compile and filter through.
TBH I'm just a little envious at how you do it.

 

[jjgold]

Pirates my boy

 

[Tanko]

Pirates my boy

Don't. Just don't.

 

[piratealew]

thank you JJ, likewise!


***4th Umpire Over is a play above-Baltimore/Tampa Over 7.5---this game has Derek Thomas who is umping this game and across 8 games this year has an average of 10.5 runs per game, on a measly 61.6%,called strike, on 9.13 Walks issued per game, with a record of 6-2 to the over this year. Only 2 games have gone under the posted 7.5 today with his games going 12, 7, 13, 2, 15, 13, 11, 11. I like this over a bit more with Thomas umping this game.

 

[piratealew]

Cashed 2 umpire overs with the biggest one mariners cashing easy, lost phils by a run. Need a few more in boston game and some help in Pitts and baltimore late.

Liked this over all day, just the umpire isn't that hitter friendly in this one to help unfortunately in SD.

adding:

Arizona/San Dog Over 7.5-115

 

[boomer]

Cashed 2 umpire overs with the biggest one mariners cashing easy, lost phils by a run. Need a few more in boston game and some help in Pitts and baltimore late.

Liked this over all day, just the umpire isn't that hitter friendly in this one to help unfortunately in SD.

adding:

Arizona/San Dog Over 7.5-115

Cashed 2 umpire overs with the biggest one mariners cashing easy, lost phils by a run. Need a few more in boston game and some help in Pitts and baltimore late.

Liked this over all day, just the umpire isn't that hitter friendly in this one to help unfortunately in SD.

adding:

Arizona/San Dog Over 7.5-115

Hi, can you let me know which 2 overs you hit? I only see KC over. The others all look to be unders. Tks

 

[piratealew]

Guardians ML Above is a top play.

⭐️Yanks/Dodgers Over 8.5-125
Asstros/Angels Over 8-112

 

[piratealew]

Hi, can you let me know which 2 overs you hit? I only see KC over. The others all look to be unders. Tks

Cardinals over and KC over

 

[piratealew]

Weird, I posted this at 213 on my phone now I don't see it. it posted at CTG and reddit where i post. Must be my phone or user error.

• Today at 2:13 PM

More hitter friendly umps today...

***5th Umpire Over---Rocks/Cards Over 8-125--with Edwin Moscoso as the ump behind home plate, who has a 7-4 Over record this year on 9.33 runs, with a measly 62.85% called strikes. He's continuing his trend as last year he was 23-10 to the over on 10.12 runs per game. His games this year have gone 13, 11, 12, 5, 9, 9, 5, 5, 9, 7, 17. These teams combined for 13 runs last night with evem with a shutdown ace like Gray on the mound. I have this game at 9 runs and with some help from Ed we might see the same like last night. He's rated the 2nd most hitter friendly ump in the MLB with a score of 4.34.

***6th Umpire Over--Boston/Chicago over 8.5 (Played above)--this game has Alan Porter behind the plate, he's rated a middle hitter friendly ump at 4.28, a few slots below Edwin above, but while his games this year average 8.6 runs per game, he's calling a low 64% srtrikes with a 2.19 SO/BB Ratio. He's had a few big high scoring games this year like 15, 10, 23 but he's worked more pitcher duals this year so far. Last 2 years across 72 games, he's 42-28 to the over for 60%, and averages 9.4 runs per game over this span. He's steady at 63.9% called strikes over this span as well. Firsr game we saw 16 runs, and last night 9, both over today's total and i have this around 10 runs, but factoring in the ump assignment could lend us more runs like game 1. The over has cashed in 6 of Boston's last 7 games and 5 of white sox last 5 have cashed the over. The red sox are avg 1.07 runs more on the road than at home and with White sox abysmal pitching, they surely will allow their average 5.3 runs, while red sox are avg 5.1 runs scored per game. We may see double digits easily today.

 

[jjgold]

You really follow everything. Do you look at odds much or that’s not your thing?

 

[piratealew]

You really follow everything. Do you look at odds much or that’s not your thing?

yeah. you mean baseball prices/odds? I look at that probably last, i look at matchup first, then try to find my edge, and compare it to the line/odd and determine where the edge or value is.

thankfully cashed most of the top plays, esp the top 5. Lost twins but won 4 out of top 5 so walked away happy, 7-6 Top plays, 2-4 umpire overs, but at least hit the big one with Mariners over. Better the smaller plays lose.

Early play today with Phils (not the #1 pick). It is a top play, will have final order up with full card in a few hours but starting with this one

⭐️Phillies-138
⭐️Phillies/Mutts Over 10.5-120