Soccer steam plays

[quantumleap]

I've long bet steam plays in all sports. I have to be honest, I haven't been successful so take that into consideration with this thread.

Since this is a slow part of the betting season, I thought I would try some system plays betting on steam. When football season starts I may abandon this thread.

I'm not going to limit this thread to just soccer. I may add some basketball or other sports. I'm going to try to stay away from baseball, especially minor leagues, since they haven't been good with steam.

My criteria are as follows:

• I use Pinnacle numbers from OddsPortal.com to determine steam. I will include other sources for lines outside the books offered there.
• I bet on the team that has at least 70 points movement. Yes, I realize the books adjust and some value is lost with such a large movement so the steam change may not be on the spread that is bet on.
• I'm going to pay attention to books that offer a much worse line than Pinnacle. I believe this is where value is found.
• I try to really question -1/2 bets as some soccer teams are satisfied with just getting 1 point out of the match (a draw, or tie, gets the team 1 point).

 

[quantumleap]

FCR Cluj +1/2 +111 (Heritage)
Starting point:
Cluj +1/2 -132
Movement point:
Cluj +1/2 -204

 

[quantumleap]

Strindheim -2 -105 (Heritage)
Starting point:
Strindheim -2 +114
Movement point:
Strindheim -2 -196

 

[quantumleap]

FC Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa -1/2 -101
Starting point:
FC SLC pk -145
Movement point:
FC SLC -278

 

[quantumleap]

Union Huaral -1/2 -144
Starting point:
-1/2 -111
Movement point:
-1/2 -185

 

[quantumleap]

Arabe Unido/Plaza Amador under 2 +121
Starting point:
under 2 1/2 -133
Movement point:
under 2 1/2 -208

 

[quantumleap]

Here's a basketball pick:

Guaros de Lara -6 1/2
-6 1/2 -118
Movement point:
-6 1/2 -189

 

[quantumleap]

Zamora -1/2 -144
Starting point:
-1/2 -114
Movement point:
-1/2 -204

This one regressed down from -204 but it's on its way back up after moving down all at once.

 

[quantumleap]

Another basketball pick. I've been contemplating not playing these leagues from the smaller Latin American countries like this one (Bolivia). I'm thinking they don't have a lot of volume so a smaller amount of money can cause a line to move. But this one started out at -2 and is now at -6. Hopefully it follows the previous basketball game's results and it won't even be close.

La Salle De Tarija -6
Starting point:
-4 1/2 +117
Movement point:
-4 1/2 -175

 

[quantumleap]

One team I want to pull the trigger on, but it hasn't met the requirements yet, is the LA Galaxy. The line has moved from -139 to -200 for the -1/4 line. That's only 61 points. This is not a pick but if I would take this I would take the -1/2 -141. Just a little more than 10 minutes left. Maybe it will move enough to fit the system. Or maybe I might make an exception.

Edit:
LA Galaxy -1/2 -141
Starting point:
-1/4 -139
Movement point:
-1/4 -200

I've decided to take this one because OddsPortal only shows the past 20 lines or so. The way this is moving, an earlier number was likely 70 points different than -200 so I'm taking a risk here by assuming so.

 

[quantumleap]

Sunday

L) FCR Cluj +1/2 +111 (Heritage)
W) Strindheim -2 -105 (Heritage)
W) FC Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa -1/2 -101
L) Union Huaral -1/2 -144 (late goal sunk this)
L) Arabe Unido/Plaza Amador under 2 +121 (a goal in the 97th minute sunk this)
W) Guaros de Lara -6 1/2
W) Zamora -1/2 -144
L)La Salle De Tarija -6
W) LA Galaxy -1/2 -141 (a win would give them a playoff spot)

Today: 5-4

Could have been 6-3-1 except for those 2 late goals.

 

[quantumleap]

All picks are Heritage unless notated differently. That's why I quit notating which book I was using.

As you can see from some of this movement, great lines can be had at these slower moving books such as in the case of Strindheim, Union Huaral, Guaros de Lara and Zamora.

 

[quantumleap]

Monday

Gjelleråsen -2
Starting point:
-1 1/2 -118
Movement point:
-1 1/2 -204

 

[quantumleap]

Eik-Tønsberg FK -1 1/2
Starting point:
-1 -111
Movement point:
-1 -222

 

[quantumleap]

Tupynambas +1 -138
Starting point:
+1 -108
Movement point:
+1 -208

Bolivar/Wilstermann over 3 -138
Starting point:
over 3 -119
Movement point:
over 3 -192

Another basketball pick:
Marinos +20
Starting point:
+22 1/2 +120
Movement point:
+22 1/2 -182

 

[quantumleap]

Union Sunchales -1
Starting point:
-1/2 -145
Movement point:
-1/2 -233

 

[quantumleap]

W) Gjelleråsen -2
W) Eik-Tønsberg FK -1 1/2
P) Tupynambas +1 -138
P) Bolivar/Wilstermann over 3 -138
W) Marinos +20 (20 point underdog wins outright.)
L) Union Sunchales -1

Monday: 3-1-2

YTD: 8-5-2

 

[Wagerallsports]

Pretty good day Q

 

[quantumleap]

Thanks Wager. More to come.

 

[quantumleap]

Brentford pk -154
Starting point:
+1/2 -141
Movement point:
+1/2 -213