Bet on Biden to WITHDRAW from the Race

[lekidecincinnati]

i have noticed at blovada big increase on the popular vote which made no sense how republicans were favored

was -110 republicans -105 democrats

now -160 democrats +135 republicans popular vote winner

 

[homie1975]

As someone who has analyzed polling data as a consultant for a senate campaign once
I can tell you that you should not trust the polls.

Obviously the polls turned out to be very flawed in 2016 and 2020 — one could argue they were actually more “wrong” in 2020

I do think Kamala’s entrance into the race slowed down any post convention bounce for Trump. The bounce has tended to become less significant in recent cycles though anyway


Trump also performed poorly at the convention

you have connections to the GS Warriors and you were a consultant for a Senate Campaign?

Okay bro, were you part of the Moon Landing, too?

 

[stormtrooper8]

you have connections to the GS Warriors and you were a consultant for a Senate Campaign?

Okay bro, were you part of the Moon Landing, too?

The consultant stuff is a little more unique because I have family in politics, including a potential 2026 governor candidate (who the Senate campaign was also for), which I'm sure I'll talk about more in the future

But yes, I do have good connections. Above average is safe to say

 

[stormtrooper8]

Again, to say the polls were "right" in 2020 since Biden won is pretty laughable to be honest

The polls were very much not projecting the outcome we got

 

[homie1975]

Again, to say the polls were "right" in 2020 since Biden won is pretty laughable to be honest

The polls were very much not projecting the outcome we got

no the states were very close on the projections each state on 538.com.

the only real surprises were AZ, GA and NV (3 out of 50 states).

trump did better than the polling just like 2016 because many people are embarrassed to admit to strangers that they are going to vote trump.

i followed the 2020 polling state by state like a hawk and they were very strong.

 

[stormtrooper8]

no the states were very close on the projections each state on 538.com.

the only real surprises were AZ, GA and NV (3 out of 50 states).

trump did better than the polling just like 2016 because many people are embarrassed to admit to strangers that they are going to vote trump.

i followed the 2020 polling state by state like a hawk and they were very strong.

Dude he was projected to lose by 9 points based on polling average up until the election . The fact that it was 4.5 in an extremely high turnout election is insane

That is horribly inaccurate polling

The state trends did have a little less variance than 2016 though, so you’re right about

 

[stormtrooper8]

538’s projections are also not just raw polling averages . They show polling averages but their projections are based on a lot more

538 has historically been more accurate than the polls

538 has Biden leading Michigan and Wisconsin before he dropped out and Pennsylvania until the shooting

538 had Trump/Biden has a 50-50 race in 2024 right as he stepped out of the race

 

[castelion]

The pre-Biden withrawal polls had Trump winning all the swing states. The projections had Biden winning WI, MI, & PA. The problem with projections rather than poll data is that the people doing the projections are using historical trends rather than looking at the current situation. Predicting a win for Biden based on polls historically getting closer nearer to election dates was obviously flawed. It was clear that Biden was losing voter and party support. It just needed that 1 bad day to set off the avalanche.

Harris is a reset. The polls will reset. Some of the Biden supporters won't support Harris. However, there are likely to be more voters who weren't supporting Biden who will now support Harris. The poll numbers we see in the 1st week of August will be betting market critical. Trump is a known election force. His support doesn't change and his voters turn out to vote for him. This election will come down to whether Harris thrives or shrivels in the election spotlight. This is a an unknown factor. Her supporters are less invested and may not be so forgiving of any mistakes she makes...or maybe they will. Maybe she unites the country.

My guess is that August will be her high point. It's tough to win people over and then keep them energised and motivated for 3 months.

 

[stormtrooper8]

The problem with projections rather than poll data is that the people doing the projections are using historical trends rather than looking at the current situation.

Historical data is just a piece of it, and not even really a major piece to be honest.

 

[homie1975]

538’s projections are also not just raw polling averages . They show polling averages but their projections are based on a lot more

538 has historically been more accurate than the polls

538 has Biden leading Michigan and Wisconsin before he dropped out and Pennsylvania until the shooting

538 had Trump/Biden has a 50-50 race in 2024 right as he stepped out of the race

Biden was up 1.5% on 538 in MI but was losing Wisconsin by the same margin.
I check it daily.

 

[homie1975]

Dude he was projected to lose by 9 points based on polling average up until the election . The fact that it was 4.5 in an extremely high turnout election is insane

That is horribly inaccurate polling

The state trends did have a little less variance than 2016 though, so you’re right about

trump always does better at the ballot than the polls because some people do not like to admit that they are voting for him.

this is a known factor.

the expectation was national Biden +5 or 6%. i know this for a fact.

and the ONLY 3 states that went the other way were AZ, GA, NV which were trump leading within the MOE 3% or less in each state and Biden flipped them all.

you just like to argue, Bro.

LOL

 

[stormtrooper8]

Biden was up 1.5% on 538 in MI but was losing Wisconsin by the same margin.
I check it daily.

He was up in Wisconsin still

He was slightly behind in PA

 

[stormtrooper8]

trump always does better at the ballot than the polls because some people do not like to admit that they are voting for him.

This is extremely overblown, and obviously can change election to election.

It's certainly not true this time around

Trump is a challenger, and is not universally more unpopular than who he is running against this time.

Most experts, like 538, predicted Trump would perform higher in polls -- especially at this point -- than he would in their model.

That is a fact. Voluntary response bias is a thing

this is a known factor.

the expectation was national Biden +5 or 6%. i know this for a fact.

and the ONLY 3 states that went the other way were AZ, GA, NV which were trump leading within the MOE 3% or less in each state and Biden flipped them all.

you just like to argue, Bro.

LOL

The polling average was Biden +8.8% going into election day. That is a fact.

I'm not talking about 538's projoection, which is my entire point......538 is more accurate than just looking at polling averages.

538 had this as a 50-50 race the moment Biden dropped out. The polls alone would not indicate that

 

[stormtrooper8]

And 538 predicted an 8-point win for Biden and a 348-190 win for Biden in the EV

It was actually worse than their 2016 prediction

 

[stormtrooper8]

In the EC*

 

[stormtrooper8]

538 had a lot of problems in 2020 despite still being better than the polls, which were wrong

538 had Biden +8 in Michigan and Wisconsin

538 had Biden +6 in Nevada

538 had Biden +5 in Pennsylvania