Bet on Biden to WITHDRAW from the Race

[stormtrooper8]

I think less about Biden’s current state, but more about the toll the presidency takes on a man, like it’s already done here, and wonder what would it be like in two or three years as president.

Agreed

Honestly didn't care if he was "fit" for 4 years. I figured Kamala being thrown in there mid term was a possibility if Biden won again

Just want to beat Trump. If Biden was healthy/had the optics, I think he would have won again

But wasn't meant to be

 

[stormtrooper8]

Can we call Trump too old now? Lol

 

[charliebrown]

Whens the next debate?

 

[homie1975]

Was he not willing to take a cognitive exam?

He said he was

his reply was (in the interview with lester holt): I take a cognitive exam every day as President.

he would not do it. if he was ready to do it he would have between 6/28 and Today. why 6/28? that was the day after the Debate Debacle.

 

[stormtrooper8]

his reply was (in the interview with lester holt): I take a cognitive exam every day as President.

he would not do it. if he was ready to do it he would have between 6/28 and Today. why 6/28? that was the day after the Debate Debacle.

I thought he said either in the George interview or in the NATO presser that he would be willing to take an exam

(I heard the quote you were referring to as well)

 

[castelion]

I don't believe the money would have come in had Biden stayed on as the nominee. I think donors would have switched to other political races. You don't throw money at an election you can't win. Biden couldn't recover this election. It was like watching a building next to a river slowly being damaged by flood waters with bits falling off. You know how it's going to end.

 

[castelion]

It still comes down to PA. If the Democrats can hold that state they'll hold MI and WI as well to reach 270 electoral college votes. If Trump takes PA it'll take him to 270 if GA goes red as expected. The Democratic nominee had better pick a running mate that will help win PA.

 

[homie1975]

It still comes down to PA. If the Democrats can hold that state they'll hold MI and WI as well to reach 270 electoral college votes. If Trump takes PA it'll take him to 270 if GA goes red as expected. The Democratic nominee had better pick a running mate that will help win PA.

right now it looks like this on aggregate polls of Trump v Harris:

- MI almost a dead heat (advantage Trump as he does better on the ballots than on polls, about 3-4% higher). 15 electoral votes.

- WI Trump is up about 4% so this one is a trouble spot. 10 electoral votes.

- PA Trump is up about 4% so this one also a trouble spot. Josh Shapiro might be needed here. 19 electoral vots.

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Where’s Biden?

Dropping out of the race via X (Twitter) with no video of him addressing the nation kinda wild.

 

[KVB]

Where’s Biden?

Dropping out of the race via X (Twitter) with no video of him addressing the nation kinda wild.

Recovering form COVID, will address nation later in the week.

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Recovering form COVID, will address nation later in the week.

You sure, KVB?

 

[KVB]

You sure, KVB?

That's what they're saying.

Although they did seem a little forceful about it...

 

[stormtrooper8]

right now it looks like this on aggregate polls of Trump v Harris:

- MI almost a dead heat (advantage Trump as he does better on the ballots than on polls, about 3-4% higher). 15 electoral votes.

- WI Trump is up about 4% so this one is a trouble spot. 10 electoral votes.

- PA Trump is up about 4% so this one also a trouble spot. Josh Shapiro might be needed here. 19 electoral vots.

Trump is not up 4% in Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, unless Harris is way worse than Biden.

Raw polling averages are not accurate

Fundamentals, and many other factors play into the state of a race

If Harris is even par with Biden, she will be leading Michigan, up a little bit in Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania is a toss-up

Polling bias is going to favor Trump considerably this time around

This is going to be a very close election again. No matter what

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

That's what they're saying.

Although they did seem a little forceful about it...

Well, he phoned in, so at least we know he’s alive.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1815509742372151444

 

[homie1975]

Trump is not up 4% in Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, unless Harris is way worse than Biden.

Raw polling averages are not accurate

Fundamentals, and many other factors play into the state of a race

If Harris is even par with Biden, she will be leading Michigan, up a little bit in Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania is a toss-up

Polling bias is going to favor Trump considerably this time around

This is going to be a very close election again. No matter what

i took aggregate polls off of 538.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

go fiddle around with the states and go look at aggregate numbers.

dozens of polls averaged.

trump always does about 3-4% better than polls because people don't like to admit they are voting for him in polling.

unless harris is up by at least 5% in those key swing states in the rust belt i do not believe she will win them.

 

[homie1975]

Recovering form COVID, will address nation later in the week.

yes probably wednesday is my guess.

thursday not popular for presidents to speak and of course friday the paris olympic opening ceremoniy.

i would guess wednesday the latest.

if he is up for it tomorrow (tuesday) then he will speak in the evening in primetime.

 

[KVB]

Overall I still agree that PA is important, perhaps most important, for the Dems and that's one of the reasons it's a much closer race than the odds were showing.

 

[castelion]

What would be the definition of a close election? Last time around Biden won 306 - 232 in electoral college votes. That wasn't close. However, 3 states were decided by an outcome of less than 1% of the vote, (AZ, GA, & WI). Flip all 3 of those states to Trump and it's a 269 - 269 tie. Add PA, (a 1.2% flip), and Trump wins. Nevada was further away at 2.4% and then it's MI at 2.8%. Those results were close.

This time around Trump leads in all 6 states and the lead is over 3% in 4 of those states. It doesn't look close at the moment. I expect Harris to get a short-term poll boost, just as Trump did after being shot, but again it won't be big and it won't last. Harris is an unproven campaigner and her mistakes will be picked apart. I expect the polling to slowly slip away from Harris in September and October. By November the gap will be as big as it ever was before Biden withdrew. I think they'll be an anti-Trump surge in the final week, but I still see Harris losing all 6 states 312 - 226. We'll see I guess. I think the popular vote total will be close.

 

[KVB]

I’m not sure I’d go with all that polling, it’s still way too early.

I’m not so sure you can trust any polling, even up to the day of, when an election is so polarizing.

This and that among voters, same among “likely voters”.

If there’s one thing we’ve learned, Trump elections can be wild and unpredictable.

 

[KVB]

Sample sizes are too small when you account for those who ”don’t want to say” etc.

And that can be high in a Trump election.

I think the margin of error statistics in the polls, while mathematically correct according to statistics 101, are fundamentally off.

The polls often miss something and that increases the “true” margin of error.

I think this tends to happen.