Bet on Biden to WITHDRAW from the Race

[stormtrooper8]

i took aggregate polls off of 538.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

trump always does about 3-4% better than polls because people don't like to admit they are voting for him in polling.

Polls are systematically flawed.

538 themselves had Biden leading Michigan and Wisconsin the day he dropped out

Trump is more than likely going to be performing better in polls this time around since he’s the challenger

 

[stormtrooper8]

It’s July and we have very little data

The polling will likely overestimate Trump this time around

Predictions can’t be made just off of polling. Way too many other factors and the sample size is absurdly small

 

[homie1975]

Polls are systematically flawed.

538 themselves had Biden leading Michigan and Wisconsin the day he dropped out

Trump is more than likely going to be performing better in polls this time around since he’s the challenger

that is incorrect.

he was down by more than 2 points in both.

i was watching it daily.

MI joe was -2

WI joe was -4

PA joe was -5

 

[homie1975]

Polls are systematically flawed.

538 themselves had Biden leading Michigan and Wisconsin the day he dropped out

Trump is more than likely going to be performing better in polls this time around since he’s the challenger

the only one they missed in the final polls right up to election day was 2016 trump (only 4 out of 50 major polls had trump winning)

2020 they nailed it with joe
2012 obama
2008 obama
2004 bush
2000 bush
1996 clinton
1992 clinton
1988 bush (btw bush was down by 17 points in june or july to michael dukakis)
1984 reagan
1980 reagan

 

[stormtrooper8]

the only one they missed in the final polls right up to election day was 2016 trump (only 4 out of 50 major polls had trump winning)

2020 they nailed it with joe
2012 obama
2008 obama
2004 bush
2000 bush
1996 clinton
1992 clinton
1988 bush (btw bush was down by 17 points in june or july to michael dukakis)
1984 reagan
1980 reagan

They didn’t really nail it with Biden

Biden was about 90% to win, and up 7-8 points in even 538’s model

Trump made it a razor thin election even with the EC being 306-232

 

[stormtrooper8]

Polling has changed a lot in the last couple decades

Polls were pretty off in terms of reesults for 2016, 2020, and 2022

They were somewhat accurate in 2018

But again there’s so much variance.

Polls can be flawed but still be “right” as long as it falls within the confidence interval/range of possible outcomes

 

[castelion]

All polls tell you is what people's intention are at any given point in time. The polls were close with Trump having a slight lead in key states. That was for now. Biden's health and abilities were only going to decline and his poll numbers were going to do the same. Harris will get a short honeymoon period, but it's not going to last. Behind the new shiny candidate veneer there isn't much to like. Unless she has quietly developed some electioneering skills the rose will be off the bloom before the election.

...and no, i'm not a Trump supporter. I'm just an interested overseas observer with no party affiliation.

 

[homie1975]

all that matters really this election is MI PA WI

whoever wins one will win them all and will win the election.

that is why Harris went to Milwaukee today.

 

[stormtrooper8]

all that matters really this election is MI PA WI

whoever wins one will win them all and will win the election.

that is why Harris went to Milwaukee today.

Yep the Blue Wall must go Blue again for Dems to win

I don’t have faith in Harris

 

[stormtrooper8]

All polls tell you is what people's intention are at any given point in time. The polls were close with Trump having a slight lead in key states. That was for now. Biden's health and abilities were only going to decline and his poll numbers were going to do the same. Harris will get a short honeymoon period, but it's not going to last. Behind the new shiny candidate veneer there isn't much to like. Unless she has quietly developed some electioneering skills the rose will be off the bloom before the election.

...and no, i'm not a Trump supporter. I'm just an interested overseas observer with no party affiliation.

Harris really is not a good politician tbh

 

[castelion]

all that matters really this election is MI PA WI

whoever wins one will win them all and will win the election.

that is why Harris went to Milwaukee today.

Trump has a bigger lead in PA than he does in MI & WI. I could see him winning PA with Harris taking MI & WI. To get 270 electoral college votes Harris has to win at least 1 of PA, GA, NC, or FL. PA might be the only 1 of those states in play. Without 1 of them MI & WI won't matter.

 

[KVB]

Trump has a bigger lead in PA than he does in MI & WI. I could see him winning PA with Harris taking MI & WI. To get 270 electoral college votes Harris has to win at least 1 of PA, GA, NC, or FL. PA might be the only 1 of those states in play. Without 1 of them MI & WI won't matter.

I'm with you on this. I agreed earlier that PA was important and I think you're spelling it out here.

A while back, seems like a long while, I played around with map on CNN or somewhere and basically came to the same conclusion you have. I tried all different scenarios and a lot of different things can play out, no doubt about it, but I do agree with you.

 

[lekidecincinnati]

kamala getting that honeymoon hit in the pools, wait a week or two when people figure out what she stands for

 

[KVB]

kamala getting that honeymoon hit in the pools, wait a week or two when people figure out what she stands for

I'm surprised Trump didn't get much of a bump from the convention.

Call it what you will, including not the republicans I know anymore convention, but there was solidarity and energy.

Without the bump feels once again like it's just a Republican echo chamber that isn't as big as it sounds.

 

[KVB]

New voter registrations spiking, Harris continues to raise money like crazy. Money isn't everything, I think Hillary had more than Trump at the time, but it does indicate momentum, support, vibrancy.

If the red side isn't careful this could get out of control quick. When the Dem political machine gets rolling, it can become a force. So much of America just wanted a fresh face.

Shit, some people will sign up to vote just to say they were in a historical election that elected the first woman. Not unlike they did for Hillary.

This could get interesting.

 

[homie1975]

I'm surprised Trump didn't get much of a bump from the convention.

Call it what you will, including not the republicans I know anymore convention, but there was solidarity and energy.

Without the bump feels once again like it's just a Republican echo chamber that isn't as big as it sounds.

after the first night of the convention it was 3 straight days of nothing but white people one after the other.

people can see through that.

 

[homie1975]

kamala getting that honeymoon hit in the pools, wait a week or two when people figure out what she stands for

what assassination attempt? no one even remembers it happened.

kamala will create daylight between herself and sleepy joe and she will start a boatrace.

 

[homie1975]

New voter registrations spiking, Harris continues to raise money like crazy. Money isn't everything, I think Hillary had more than Trump at the time, but it does indicate momentum, support, vibrancy.

If the red side isn't careful this could get out of control quick. When the Dem political machine gets rolling, it can become a force. So much of America just wanted a fresh face.

Shit, some people will sign up to vote just to say they were in a historical election that elected the first woman. Not unlike they did for Hillary.

This could get interesting.

KVBer as usual you are the smartest guy in a thread.

the key of course is the battleground states for new voter reg the next 100 days and that is what will make the difference.

 

[stormtrooper8]

As someone who has analyzed polling data as a consultant for a senate campaign once
I can tell you that you should not trust the polls.

Obviously the polls turned out to be very flawed in 2016 and 2020 — one could argue they were actually more “wrong” in 2020

I do think Kamala’s entrance into the race slowed down any post convention bounce for Trump. The bounce has tended to become less significant in recent cycles though anyway


Trump also performed poorly at the convention

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1816463411812966774