Friday-Sunday June 30 MLB

[piratealew]

Realized I was posting in my old thread and didnt start one for this week.

Friday's games

860-755 YTD/ (446-378 Top plays) Umpire Overs=65-40 Umpire Under=2-1 College World Series=4-2

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Phillies-130
⭐️Baltimore-145
⭐️Cubs-136 (Sorry Grimace, not today)
⭐️Red Sox+101
⭐️Seattle-148
⭐️Dodgers-1-130
⭐️Brewers/Padres Over 7.5-110 (Umpire Over-see writeup)
⭐️Tigers-1-107
⭐️Texas/KC Over 7.5-112
⭐️Nasty Nats+101
⭐️Yankees-103
Texas-140 (Singer is TERRIBLE against Lefties, Tex has some power there)
Brewers+140
Cleveland-115
Twinks-1-118
Pirates+101
Cubs-0.5+100 (F5-First 5 innings)
Dbags/Phils Over 9-130
Mariners/Marlin Over 7-130
Dodgers/Angels Over 7.5-130
Clev/Toronto Over 8.5-128
Twins/A's Over 7.5-120

Umpire Overs=3-1 Thurs/65-40 YTD
***First Umpire Over is Brewers/Chaplains Over 7.5 with Jansen Visconti. Last night we had Andy Fletcher in this series and I was so sure it would go over i kept hitting it, as in my writeup I said Fletcher is an over's king for umpires, Jansen works on this guy's team for this series, so I expect Fletcher's influence on check swings and other calls but regarding Jansen V he is not quite the hitter friendly ump Fletcher is but Over the last 2-5 Years, his games are consistently averaging around 9 runs pert game, and over the last 2 is 54% to the over, while this year 7-6 to the over. Through is career he's avg about 63% called strikes and a 2.5 SO/BB ratio so he definitely leans to the hitters, his last 2 games have hit 16 runs and 10 runs, while he had a 4 run game prior, the 2 games prior to that were 19 runs and 10. The 19 run game he worked CEASE was pitching against Wacha and KC. Today Cease is pitching again, and I expect him to get squeezed. These teams also did combine for 13 last night, so the bats are hot and ready tonight.

In case anyone is playing Euro and Copa (Having lived briefly in Lima Peru, I am very interested in the Copa teams). Be back a bit later with Friday's MLB games.

Ukraine ML +140/Slovakia Over 4.5 Corners/Ukraine+Slovakia Over 2.5 goals+115

Poland Double Chance(Win or Draw)-125/ Poland&Austria BTTS

France ML+135/ BTTS France+Netherlands/ France+1.5 team goals+130/France or Tie+1.5 game goals-115

Parlay France/Dutch Over 0.5 First half goals+Poland/Austria Over 0.5 First half goals (100 nets 210-220ish most books)


For the Copa game:

Peru+300
Peru Double Chance (Win or draw)-140

Having seen Peru a few times live in Peru, and the Copa and run to their first World Cup, I've since been following with greater interest as they are an up and coming team with a lot of heart. Peru has won 3 of their last 5, and won their last Copa matchup with Chile 3-0. With new coach Jorge Fossati, they have yet to lose, winning 3 of his first 4 and a draw. La Roja (Chile) has been struggling to score in Copa, scoring just 4 in their last 9 tournament games, while Peru (la Blanquirroja-the white and red of Peru) has kept clean sheets (no goals) in their 2 games this month.
The last time these 2 met was October in a 2026 World Cup Qualifier with Peru Winning 2-0. I see something similar tonight

 

[piratealew]

***2nd Umpire Over ⭐️Texas/KC Over 7.5---With Dan Bellino who consistently rates a very hitter friendly ump, his games arare 8-6 to the over this year on a very high 10.5 runs per game, on 63.5% strikes and a 2.55 SO/BB ratio., and with 2 teams than can put up runs in this matchup I think the runs might come early. KC'S singer is terrible against lefties (4.46 ERA vs 2.33) where he's allowed 9 home runs and 16 walks to the left handed hitters. Rangers have plenty of power potential on that side with Segar, Lowe and Smith. Runs shouldnt be an issue in this game, i have it reaching 9 and with Bellino's help, it might get there sooner.

 

[piratealew]

***3rd Umpire over is ⭐️Bravos/Yankees Over 7.5-110 with Mark Ripperger, a long known entity among Hitter friendly umpires, his games are 9-5-1 to the over this year, on an astounding 10.1 runs per game, a low 2.19 SO/BB Ratio to just over 64% called strokes. In his last 5 games only 1 went under this total tonight going 19, 7, 15, 8, 8. The braves and yankees both have lineups that are among the top teams in MLB and capable of hitting this over themselves. With Mark squeezing the pitchers and a night in the 60% humidity range, I like this over a lot. This is a top play

***4th Umpire Over is LAA/La Doyers Over 7.5 with Ryan Additon. He is rated a hitter friendly ump just above Angel Hernandez at 4.26 tied with other hitter friendly umps like Derek Thomas. The reason is he has a genrous strike zone for the hitters and a very low SO/BB walk ratio at 2.67 this year, and as low as 2.4 over the last 2 years. Also over the last 5 years, his games have averaged a well above league avg 9.3 runs per game, with a mid 63% called strike %. In his last gme with O's/Yanks I noticed he sqeezed Gil early and that set the tone. 22 runs were scored. In this game, both offenses are doing well of late, with the angels avg 4.33 runs per game in their last 6, while Dodgers avg 5.83 runs. Both teams have weaker pitching staffs this month as through June the angels are 29th in MLB with a 5.35 ERA (17 games) while Dodgers are 11th with a 3.68 ERA in that span . I expect runs to be scored in this game.

 

[piratealew]

Nats/Rocks Over 10.5-125

 

[piratealew]

Sandoval should get rocked. Dodgers also 6-0 against LAA at home last 6 games. I see them winning wire to wire but bigger play is on the full game.

Dodgers-139 (F5-First 5 innings)-ML

 

[piratealew]

Here's Saturday's Euro plays (will put up baseball a bit later):

Czech ML-110/BTTS/Over 2.5 goals in match

Portugal ML-145/BTTS/Over 2.5 goals in match

Belgium-1+130/BTTS

Belgium ML+Portugal ML=100 nets about 250 at most shops

 

[piratealew]

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Baltimore-140
⭐️Seattle-0.5-110 (F5/First 5 innings)
⭐️Phillies-0.5-140 (F5/First 5 Innings)
⭐️Cleveland-127
⭐️KC/Texas Over 8-115 (Umpire Over-see writeup)
⭐️Nationals-106
⭐️Mets+105
⭐️Boston-119
⭐️Chicago/Detroit Over 8.5-120 (Umpire Over-see writeup)
⭐️Dodgers-1.5-125 (F5/First 5 innings)
⭐️Braves+0.5-115 (F5/First 5 innings)
Baltimore/Houston Over 7.5-125 (Umpire Over-see writeup)
Cards-104
Braves+130 (Full game)
Seattle-1-115 (Full game)
Dodgers/Angels Over 8-115 (Umpire Over-see writeup)
Twins-154
Braves/Yanks Over 8.5-125
Padres-103
Texas-126
Padres/Brewers Over 8.5-125 (umpire Over-see wrirteup)
Tigers-149
Dbags./Phils Over 8.5-125
Mets/Cubs Over 11-130


Umpire Overs=3-1 Fri/68-41 YTD

***1st Umpire Over is KC/Tex Over 8 with Phil Cuzzi who is 8-4-2 to the over this year, at 9.6 runs per game and a 2.7 SO/BB Ratio, with just over 64% strike calls. The over hit last night and both teams are currently scoring more than 4.2 runs per game. Rangers bullpen also gives up plenty of runs ranking 27th with a 4.73 ERA and 25th in WHIP (1.37). The pen also has been prone to giving up homers, as 32 homers have been hit, which is 10th most in MLB. KC's pitching staff is 12th with a 3.84, and with Wacha pitching today, I expect the rangers to not have much issue scoring like last night.

***2nd Ump Over is Chicago/Detroit Over 8.5 with Chad Fairfchild who is rated as a hitter friendly umpire at 4.26, as he tends to have a larger K zone for pitchrrs leading to more walks. Over his last 5 years, his games are avg well above the league avg at 9.3 Runs per game, hitting about 52% over, with a 63.9% called strikes and 2.73 SO/BB Ratio. Both teams are throwing pitchers that have had a rough go of it,with Meada breaking finger nails and other injuries, he's often out of the game early and/or giving up a lot or runs as he's 2-3 with over a 6 ERA and Chicago's Thorpe is 0-1 with an 8.64 ERA. I expect run scoring opps to be plentiful and Chad will certainly help more than hurt.


***3rd Umpire Over Balty/Gas City Over 7.5 with one of the top Hitter friendly umpires Bruce Dreckman who is 12-2 to the over, with an avg ERA of 5.9 and a 2.5 SO/BB ratio resulting in an a whopping 12.3 runs per game. His last 2 games resulted in 21 runs, and last 47. Last night these 2 teams scored 25 and while i dont expect that output again, Dreckman is known to have high scoring games so I would expect at least 10 this game.

***4th Umpire Over Dodgers/Angels Over 8 with James Hoye who is 7-6-1 to the over but on a high 9.6 runs per game, due to a low 63.4% strike call and 2.4 SO/BB Ratio. Going back to 2020 all his years he's avg over 9 runs per game in his games and one year hit 10 in 2021. Both teams are struggling pitching in June as the angels are 29th with a 5.35 ERA this month in 17 games and the Dodgers are doing a bit better at 10th with a 3.64 ERA. Dodgers are avg 6 runs in their last 6 while angels are scoring 3.6 over the last 5. I expect more runs tonight and with Hoye squeezing the pitchers we should approach 10 runs.

***5th Umpire Over is Padres/Brewers Over 8.5 with Mike Muchlinksi who's games this year are avg well over MLB avg at `10.7 runs per game in 13 games, on a 2.7 SO/BB ratio and a 64.5% strike call. Over his last 3 seasons or 104 games, his games are hitting the over at 54.1% on 9.6 runs per game, a 2.7 SO/BB Ratio and 64.2% strike call, so he's been very consistent throughout, and that is leaning to helping hitters. Runs have been plentiful between these 2 last 2 games combiining for 27 runs over the 2 games (14, and 13). I dont see that slowing down tonight given the pitching matchups, Rodriguez for Mil has an over 6 ERA while Velasquez for the Chaplains has a 5.7 ERA. He gave up 6 in 4 runs last start to the Phils.

 

[piratealew]

College World Series=4-2
⭐️Old Rocky Top (TN)-1.5+105
Ten/Tex A&M Over 120

 

[piratealew]

For Copa Tonight

La Tri (Ecuador)+115
La Tri/La Vinotinto (Ven) Over 2.5+140
Match Combo-Ecuador to win+Over 1.5 combined Goals +180

 

[piratealew]

College World Series=4-2
⭐️Old Rocky Top (TN)-1.5+105
Ten/Tex A&M Over 120

should be over 11-120

 

[piratealew]

Looks like another Overs day. with some good hitter friendly umps working today.

***6th Umpire Over is⭐️Seattle/Miami Over 7-130 With Edwin Moscsoso, who avg 9.5 runs per game this year in his games on 62.9% strikes, resulting in a 9-5 to the over this eyar on a 2.39 SO/BB Ratio. In the '23 campaign his games were 23-10 to the over, and avg 10.12 runs per game with a very low 2.3 SO/BB ratio. He has long been a hitter friendly ump and with the Marlins throwing an erratic young kid call up who sports a 15.19 ERA, I expect the marlins to have plenty more opps to score today. This is a top play.

 

[piratealew]

***7th Umpire Over is Atl/NYY Over 8.5 (played already above) with Derek Thomas---He's a newer ump but is producing a lot of runs in his games, In 11 games this year, he's seeing 9.55 runs per game on a very low 61.87% strike call and very low 1.95 SO/BB Ratio. He's 7-4 to the over this year, and in 2023 similar numbers averaging 9.5 runs in 20 games on a 63% called strike. Both teams are having struggles pitching in June as the Braves are 16th with a 4.10 ERA in 17 games while yanks are now 21st with a 4.59 ERA in the 18 June games. NY is scoring 5.23 runs in the last 13 games while Braves are scoring 4.17 runs in the last 2 weeks. Last night the total cleared 9 and I expect with Derek's help, we may see double digits+.

 

[piratealew]

Yankees over is a top play

 

[piratealew]

For last Copa Game:

Mexico-1+135/BTTS-110/Over 2.5 goals-125
Mexico to win first half+120

 

[piratealew]

15-10 Sat/884-779 YTD/ (457-391 Top plays) Umpire Overs=72-44 Umpire Under=2-1 College World Series=5-3

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Mound City CARDINALS-118
⭐️Mistake on the Lake GUARDIANS-108
⭐️Bodymore ORIOLES+119
⭐️Chocolate City NATIONALS-120
⭐️Filthadelphia PHILLIES-1-148
⭐️Shittsburgh PIRATES-0.5-115 (F5/First 5 innings)
⭐️NY Mutts METS+102
⭐️KC/Texas Over 8-120 (Umpire Over-See Writeup)
⭐️Smallwaukee BREWERS+125
⭐️Boogie-Down YANKEES-102
⭐️Bump City ATHLETICS +0.5+105 (F5/First 5 innings)
⭐️Murdermore ORIOLES/Gas City Asstros Over 8-120
Rangers-139
Boston+146
Mariners-1-125
Phillies-0.5-126 (F5/First 5 Innings)
Pirates-145 (Full game)
Tigers-1-120
Oakland ML+160 (Full game)
Mariners/Marlins over 7.5-110
White Sux/Tigers Over
Nats/Rocks Over 10.5-115
Minn/Oakland Over 8-110

***1st Umpire Over is KC/Texas Over 8 with Tony Randazzo who is 8-6 to the over this year on 9.4 runs per game, a low 2.5 SO/BB ratio and just over 63% called strikes. In his last 3 seasons, or 62 games, he's 55% to the over on 9.9 runs per game and also a 2.5 SO/BB Ratio and just over 63% called strikes, so hes been very consistent and more pro hitter. With the pitching matchup today, I doubt Max goes too far in this game, prob 5 innings max, so there will be plenty of time for the royals to hit on the Rangers horrendous Bullpen ranked 26th in MLB with a 4.64 ERA. Rangers will have opps against the Royals SP as well as their pen which isn't much better at 21st in MLB with a 4.43 ERA. Both teams also hit well with runners in Scoring Position, with the royals ranking 3rd at .840 OPS, and rangers ranking 8th with a ,782 with RISP. This makes for a favorable game to see more runs than the total calls for. This is a top play.

For Euro later:
Swiss Over 3.5 Corners/BTTS/Germs ML-130

Hungary BTTS/Over 2.5 goals
Hungary ML+170/Draw+280 (small backup in case 1-1 game)

Copa
La Celeste (Uruguay)-1-110/Uruguay ML-120 (First Half)/ Over 2.5 goals-125
La Canaleros (Panama) Under 0.5 Goals-130

USA-150 (First Half)
USA/LA Verde (Bolivia) Over 2.5 goals

CWS=5-3
Tennessee-1.5-145
Over 10.5-125

 

[piratealew]

15-10 Sat/884-779 YTD/ (457-391 Top plays) Umpire Overs=72-44 Umpire Under=2-1 College World Series=5-3

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Mound City CARDINALS-118
⭐️Mistake on the Lake GUARDIANS-108
⭐️Bodymore ORIOLES+119
⭐️Chocolate City NATIONALS-120
⭐️Filthadelphia PHILLIES-1-148
⭐️Shittsburgh PIRATES-0.5-115 (F5/First 5 innings)
⭐️NY Mutts METS+102
⭐️KC/Texas Over 8-120 (Umpire Over-See Writeup)
⭐️Smallwaukee BREWERS+125
⭐️Boogie-Down YANKEES-102
⭐️Bump City ATHLETICS +0.5+105 (F5/First 5 innings)
⭐️Murdermore ORIOLES/Gas City Asstros Over 8-120
Rangers-139
Boston+146
Mariners-1-125
Phillies-0.5-126 (F5/First 5 Innings)
Pirates-145 (Full game)
Tigers-1-120
Oakland ML+160 (Full game)
Mariners/Marlins over 7.5-110
White Sux/Tigers Over
Nats/Rocks Over 10.5-115
Minn/Oakland Over 8-110

***1st Umpire Over is KC/Texas Over 8 with Tony Randazzo who is 8-6 to the over this year on 9.4 runs per game, a low 2.5 SO/BB ratio and just over 63% called strikes. In his last 3 seasons, or 62 games, he's 55% to the over on 9.9 runs per game and also a 2.5 SO/BB Ratio and just over 63% called strikes, so hes been very consistent and more pro hitter. With the pitching matchup today, I doubt Max goes too far in this game, prob 5 innings max, so there will be plenty of time for the royals to hit on the Rangers horrendous Bullpen ranked 26th in MLB with a 4.64 ERA. Rangers will have opps against the Royals SP as well as their pen which isn't much better at 21st in MLB with a 4.43 ERA. Both teams also hit well with runners in Scoring Position, with the royals ranking 3rd at .840 OPS, and rangers ranking 8th with a ,782 with RISP. This makes for a favorable game to see more runs than the total calls for. This is a top play.

For Euro later:
Swiss Over 3.5 Corners/BTTS/Germs ML-130

Hungary BTTS/Over 2.5 goals
Hungary ML+170/Draw+280 (small backup in case 1-1 game)

Copa
La Celeste (Uruguay)-1-110/Uruguay ML-120 (First Half)/ Over 2.5 goals-125
La Canaleros (Panama) Under 0.5 Goals-130

USA-150 (First Half)
USA/LA Verde (Bolivia) Over 2.5 goals

CWS=5-3
Tennessee-1.5-145
Over 10.5-125

Tennessee-1.5 is a top play

 

[piratealew]

White sox total should be
White Sux/Tigers Over 7.5-125

 

[piratealew]

***2nd Umpire Over is Minn/Oakland Over 8 with Jordan Baker who is 7-5-1 to the over in '24, with an avg ERA of 4.6, and a 63.9% strike call with a 2.8 SO/BB ratio is working out to a high 9.7 runs per game. Over the last 2 yrs or 74 games, his games are 56.3% over, on 9.6 runs per game and a low 2.3 SO/BB ratio on 63.5% strikes. Jordan also rates as a hitter friendly ump at 4.27 tied with Libka and Meals. Pitching wise, this favors the over too- Lopez has a 5.63 ERA against the A's in 16 inning and gave up 7 over 5 in his last start in Oak city. 3 of the last 4 btw these 2 went over, including yesterfday. Today I expect more contribution from Oakland.

***3rd Umpire Over is Boston/Cincy Over 9-110 with Todd Tichenor who consistently grades out in the extreme category of Hitter friendly Umps, as he is rated a 4.33. The ERA in his games this year is a 4.4 on a 2.7 SO/BB Ratio, just over 64% strikes and a 9 run per game average. Over the last 2 years his games produce on average 9.5 runs per game. I like the ball to fly today at Great America Park, I had this pegged for 9-10 but with some umpiring help we may see more than 10.

 

[piratealew]

***2nd Umpire Over is Minn/Oakland Over 8 with Jordan Baker who is 7-5-1 to the over in '24, with an avg ERA of 4.6, and a 63.9% strike call with a 2.8 SO/BB ratio is working out to a high 9.7 runs per game. Over the last 2 yrs or 74 games, his games are 56.3% over, on 9.6 runs per game and a low 2.3 SO/BB ratio on 63.5% strikes. Jordan also rates as a hitter friendly ump at 4.27 tied with Libka and Meals. Pitching wise, this favors the over too- Lopez has a 5.63 ERA against the A's in 16 inning and gave up 7 over 5 in his last start in Oak city. 3 of the last 4 btw these 2 went over, including yesterfday. Today I expect more contribution from Oakland.

***3rd Umpire Over is Boston/Cincy Over 9-110 with Todd Tichenor who consistently grades out in the extreme category of Hitter friendly Umps, as he is rated a 4.33. The ERA in his games this year is a 4.4 on a 2.7 SO/BB Ratio, just over 64% strikes and a 9 run per game average. Over the last 2 years his games produce on average 9.5 runs per game. I like the ball to fly today at Great America Park, I had this pegged for 9-10 but with some umpiring help we may see more than 10.

Minn Over should be a top play

 

[piratealew]

***First Umpire UNDER is Mutts/Cubbies UNDER 8.5-112 with Alex Tosi, who is a very picher friendly umpire and sees a lot of under/low scoring games, as evidenced that his games this year average a very low 6.6 runs per game, with a 3.16 SO/BB ratio (Over 3 is better for pitchers), and over 64% called strikes. His games are 12-3 to the UNDER this year. In 2023, he was 19-12 under, on 8.2 runs. Tonight appears to be a pitcher fuel, with Assad who has a 1.6 ERA at home, limiting hitters to a .213 BA. Against the mets, this righty has limited them to a slash line of .172/.192/.172 over 29 at bats. Sevy has shut down the cubs in his career, holding them to a .111/.200/.111 Over 27 at bats. He's posting a low 3.52 ERA thsi year, going against a struggling cubs offense rankng 16th in BA (.246) and 19th in OPS .693

adding:
Brewers Team Total Over 3.5-105