Friday-Sunday June 30 MLB

[piratealew]

16-11 Wed/940-821 YTD/ (482-416 Top plays) Umpire Overs=80-54 Umpire Under=4-1

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Phillies-1.5-129
⭐️Guardians-108
⭐️Yankees-128
⭐️Baltimore-1-146 (Full game)
⭐️Twins+110
⭐️Detroit-1-126
⭐️Cubs-103 (Full Game)
⭐️Braves/White Sox Over 7.5-125 (Umpire Over)
Braves-1.5+105 (F5)
Orioles-0.5-130 (F5/First 5 innings)
Yanks/Blow Jays Over 7.5-125
Tigers-0.5-115 (F5/First 5 innings)
Cubs ML-105 (F5/First 5 innings)
Twins/Dbacks Over 8.5-120
Reds+122
Phills/Marlins Over 7.5-112
Cubs/Giants Over 7-135
***First Umpire Over is Braves/White Sox over 7.5 with Laz Diaz, who's games are seeing 9.3 runs per game in 15 games this year on a low 2.3 SO/BB Ratio, and just over 64% called strikes. He's aways been a decent hitter friendly umpire, especially from in AL ballparks where his games have gone 56.4% over (115-89), on 9.1 runs per game, his typical low SO/BB ratio of 2.4, and low 63.7% strike calls. This total was a toss up as I had this pegged right at 8 runs but with Diaz and his avg of 1.75 runs initiated per game (his high was 4 runs in a 15-7 game), I'm more confident this game goes over the total.

Oldest daughter turned 14 today in NC, time really flies....will be around some later...

 

[piratealew]

***2nd Umpire Over is ⭐️Twins/DbacksOver 8.5 with Mike Muchlinski--the same crew with Andy Fletcher and last night Visconti, this team produces overs in their games more than most crews. Mike's games are 7-7 Over this year but averaging a very high 10.6 runs per game, on 64.5% called strikes and a 2.7 SO/BB Ratio. Over his last 3 years, his games avg 9.7 runs per game and 55% over in 105 games so his games have always had a higher scoring tendency. This series has produced 2 overs in the first 2 of the series (9 and 11). The total has also gone over in 5 of Minny's last 6 and Dbags have seen 9 of their last 10 at home go over, and I see that continuing today given the matchup and the umpire crew in this game. This is now a top play.

 

[doyleellis11]

Thank You Pirate ! Congrats !

 

[piratealew]

Hope everyone pounded the twins and over today, I had a good feeling Jo Mo would get slammed today, and this series is an over producer with the umps and matchups. 8-0 in the 3rd.

Umpire Unders 3-1
***1st Umpire Under is Cleveland/KC Under 9-120 with Mike Estrabrook. This game screams under from the matchup and with Mike behind home who is 9-5 to the UNDER, due to the fact he's squeezing hitters calling 66.3% strikes (very high), and an insanely high 4.08 SO/BB (one of the highest in MLB---4 is GREAT for pitchers). His games are averaging a very low 7.9 runs each game (1 run under tonight's total). His last 4 games have been high scoring 11, 14, 13, 16 and with that, his avg is still 7.9 runs, and with good reason I think we see his average or less tonight. The under has cashed in the last 5 KC games, and 8-1-1 last 10 (scoring just 20 runs in 10 games), and 6-3 under between these 2 last 9. 2 veteran pitchers tonight Lively with a 3 ERA and Wacha a 4, I think this is another tight pitchers dual, which I have pegged at 7 runs. Just to show how tight he is on pitchers, he's had many games with 16 strikeouts and 3-4 walks. In one game, 11 K's,1 BB. I am confident we see less walks tonight esp with 2 pitchers who have control.

 

[piratealew]

Well, just found out and confirmed MLB switched umps in ATL game to Segal, which would not qualify in the hitter friendly umpire category at all. He is a very pitcher friendly umpire this year. Much like the other day in Milwaukee game, this change must have been last minute. Had I known I wouldnt have put any more on it.

This one doesnt have the most favorable umpire in Ortiz but the matchup and 2 teams warrant an Over in this spot tonight.

Tigers/Angels Over 8-120

 

[piratealew]

11-8 Thursday/951-829 YTD/ (486-421 Top plays) Umpire Overs=81-54 Umpire Under=5-1

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Braves-1-120 (Full game)
⭐️Brewers-127
⭐️Yankees-108 (Stroman against former team, dominates BJ's)
⭐️Seattle-122
⭐️Guardians-110
⭐️Dodgers+105
⭐️Baltimore-125
⭐️Angels/Tigers Over 9-112 (Umpire Over-see writeup)
⭐️Nats/Rays Over 7-130
⭐️Astros-107
⭐️Arizona-143
Boston-144
Reds+120
Braves-0.5-118(F5/First 5 innings)
Phillies-0.5-138 (F5/First 5 innings)
Yanks/Jays Over 8-120
Reds/Cards Over 8-125
Nationals+140
White Sox-123
Angels+110
Arizona/Oakland over 8.5-120
Minnesota/Seattle Over 7-115
Guards/Royals Over 9-128

***First Umpire Over is Angels/Tigers over 9 with Alfonso Marquez, who is at the highest ranking of Hitter friendly umpires at the top of lit above Moscoso, Wegner and others due to his consistent low strike call at 62.8% his career and a 2.21 SO/BB Ratio. His games throughout his career have averaged over 9 runs per game. with close to 55% of his total games going over the total. His last 5 years or 153 last games his games have gone over 58.2% on 9.7 runs. With the pitching matchup throwing 2 guys who have been awful and leaking runs through walks and homers, with Plesac carrying an 8.68 ERA and Maeda around a 6 ERA, I expect runs to be plentiful, as both teams should light up the starters and the pens as Detroit is now 17th in ERA at 4.07, while LA is almost last at 29th with a 5.04 ERA, and both pens have given up 30 homers this year. The over should be in play tonight.

 

[piratealew]

***2nd Umpire Over is Clev/KC over 9 with Erich Bacchus, who's games are 8-5 over this year on 9.43 runs per game, due to a low 63% called strikes and a hitter favorable 2.45 SO/BB Ratio. In 2023, in 30 games his totals avg 9.1 runs per game on 64% strikes, and 2.5 SO/BB ratio. Prior to last night's game, these 2 averaged 10 runs per game in the previous 2. Both teams are in the top half of MLB in terms of scoring. Both starters should give some up as Marsh allowed 4 runs in each of his last 3 starts at home , and 7 hits in each. McKenzie allows at least 2 runs each road start, as he has the past 5. The over has a better shot with Erich calling balls and strikes tonight.

***3rd Umpire Over is Wash/Tampa Over 7 with Tony Ranzdazzo whose games are seeing 9.06 runs per game, 8-7 to the over on 63% strikes, and a 2.5 SO/BB Ratio. In 2023, his games averaged also just over 9 runs, while he sat out in 2022, in 26 games in 2021 his games saw 11.08 runs per game on 63% strikes. Through his career, he's averaging over 1.5 runs initiated (high), with as high as 5 runs in a few games, and 3 runs in a game this year. This total was set low as most are in tampa dome around 7.5, but looking at the starters for both, they each gave up 4 in their last start. While I dont expect the scoreboard to light up, I am expecting over 8 runs with some helpful Randazzo calls we may see it earlier.

***4th Umpire Over is Toronto/NY Over 8 with Clint Vondrak who's 15 games this year average 10.4 runs per game gong 9-6 to the over on 64% strikes and a 2.3 SO/BB Ratio. He's only been an ump a few years but last year his 33 games were similar, avg over 9 runs per game, 64% strikes with a 2.6 SO/BB Ratio. He is calling less strike outs and issues more walks than average. Both teams have had bad pitching in Junes with NY being 29th with a 6.91 team ERA and toronto 24th with a 5.49 ERA in June. I expect yanks to bounce back and ride Stroman who is pitching against his former team, but even he is giving up runs this month with a 4.91 ERA in June in 4 starts.

 

[piratealew]

As most know by now, I am not a huge fan of unders however i've done well on them lately (5-1 umpire unders). I found another good spot with a good ump and another over i had been eyeing all day, waited on ump assignments.

***5th Umpire Over is San Dog Chaplains/Boston Red Sux Over 9-120 With James Hoye who's 8-6-1 to the over this year on 9.5 runs per game, a low 2.5 SO/BB Ratio and 63.% strikes. In 33 games last year back to 2021, it was about the same every year at 9.2-9.9 runs per game, a low 63.3% strikes and 2.4 SO/BB ratio. Given the matchup I had this total pegged at 9 and was waiting on the umpire assignment to see if i this would push the over. With his averages runs initiated around 2 per game this year, I'm more confident this total hits 10+. The total has gone over 7 straight padres games and 7 of the last 10 red sox games.

Umpire Unders 5-1 YTD
***1st Umpire Under is Astros/Mets UNDER 8.5-115 with Jim Wolf. He is 6-2 to the UNDER this year year on 7.6 runs per game, and a high 65.3% strike calls and close to 3 SO/BB Ratio. Over his last 85 games or 3 years, his games have hit the under 54% of the time, on 8.5 runs per game and close to 65% strikes. Given the matchup, I had this one pegged at 7-8 runs and am more confident now with the umpire being Wolf. Citifield is a notorious pitcher friendly park and with Blanco and Quintana pitching solid lately, they should keep the runs down. The mets are 24-18 under at home this year. Houston has the best under record in MLB at 48-24-4.

 

[piratealew]

Forgot these 2

Chicago/Milwaukee Over 8-125

***2nd Umpire Under-Giants/Dodgers UNDER 8-125 with Edwin Jimenez. This one is tricky if you just look at runs, this year he's avg 9.13 runs in 15 games, and is 7-8 UNDER but he's calling over 65% strikes and has a high 3.04 SO/BB Ratio (above 3 is ++ for pitchers). This has been consistent since he started last year, where he had a more expected 15-6 UNDER with over 64% strikes, and a high 3 SO/BB Ratio. Simply put, he is striking out more and having less walks, this translates usually to less runs. Tonight we also have a pitcher friendly park in SFO where the stadium blocks the wind most nights. Logan Webb is an unders machine and very solid at home with a 2.06 ERA in 7 games Giants are struggling to hit against the LAD hitting just .221 this year, and Dodgers are throwing a stud in Knack who sports a sparkling 1.69 ERA. Knowing Edwin is behind the ump gives more confidence in this under

 

[piratealew]

Cashed the top 4 plays yesterday, ended up ++ for a good day. 3-2 Umpire overs, 0-1 and a push on the unders.Mets had to score in the bottom 8th to bust that under....on to Sat...

964-842 YTD/ (491-427 Top plays) Umpire Overs=84-56 Umpire Under=5-2

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Red Sox-129 (Full game)
⭐️Cleveland+101
⭐️Astros-107
⭐️Yankees-113
⭐️Twins-105
⭐️Phils/Marlins Over 8-120
⭐️Dodgers-0.5-128 (F5/First 5 innings)
⭐️Orioles-142
⭐️Nasty Nationals+120 (Full game)
⭐️Brewers-109
⭐️Arizona-0.5-128 (F5/First 5 Innings)
⭐️Tigers/Angels Over 7.5-120
Cards-1-130
Phillies-1.5-118
Braves-140
Red Sox-0.5+102 (F5/First 5 Innings)
Arizona-1-145 (Full Game)
Rockies+104
Dodgers-1.5-115 (Full game)
Nats+0.5-115
Texas/Baltimore Over 8.5-130
Boston/San Dog Over 8-126
Yankees/Blow Jays Over 8-110
Brewers/Cubs Over 7.5-120
Pirates/Braves UNDER 8-120

 

[piratealew]

Some asked who I played for Euro since we hit a few and Copa last 2 days.
Swiss to qualify+120/BTTS+130
Germany ML/BTTS/Over 1.5 goals

 

[piratealew]

***1st Umpire Over is Miami/Phil Over 8 with Nate Tomlinson who has been a consistent over ump the last 2 years . This year he's avg over 8 runs but 8-6 to the over on 63% strikes, and 2.6 SO/BB ratio. Last year, in 35 games his games avg 11.2 runs on 63% strikes, 2.2 SO/BB Ratio. With nate behind the plate squeezing with lower strike calls, there's always a potential for a higher scoring game and today's matchup also calls for an over, with Munoz who has over a 5 ERA. I had this game at 9 runs before but am more positive this goes over with a hitter friendly ump and a 15 mph wind out to LF wall in addition to the 60% humidity (helps ball fly), the over should be in order.

***2nd Umpire Over is Brewers/Cubs over 7.5 with Paul Clemons, whose 18 games in '24 have avg 9.6 runs per game on 64% strikes. His games last year were 6-3 to the over with almost 9 runs a game. He's a more recent umpire but consistently calls a low 63-64% strikes and is prone to high scoring games. I had this game pegged for just over 8 runs but I could see this going over the total with some umpire help earier.

***3rd Umpire Over is White Sox/Rockies Over 8.5-125 with Jordan Baker whose 15 games are avg just under 9 runs per game, on 63% strikes, and 2.8 So/BB Ratio. Last year was more typical of the production expected from Bakers games as his 28 games averaged almost 11 runs per game on 63% strikes and 2.2 SO/BB Ratio. With almost 70% humidity and a 10 mph breeze to left field helping today and a CHW rookie who gave up 5 in 1 IP last start, i am more confident this hits the over.

 

[piratealew]

Copa I played Argentina First half ML+125 (against my former 2nd home Peru), Over 2.5 goals+140, Argentina to win to Nil+120, then Canada/Chile Draw+230/BTTS-130/Over 2.5 goals.

 

[piratealew]

***4th Umpire Over is ⭐️LA Dodgers/SF Over 7-115 with Andy Fletcher, who is the best overs ump this year with a 13-2 over record this year on 12.2 runs per game, due to his very low 61.9% strikes and 1.81 SO/BB Ratio. His last 7 have hit the over and I've been on every one. Tonight we have 2 teams that average 1.25 homers per game this month, and while Glasnow is strong, he's allowed a homer run each start this month and i see that continuing or giving up a few runs today. Giants are 6th in MLB in plate appearances, which affords them more opportunities to score. I had this game at 8, but now could see this reaching double digits with Fletcher as ump and a 15 mph wind out to center helping. This is a top play

 

[piratealew]

Umpire Overs 2-0 today, need some luck with the Philly total.

***5th Umpire Over is Minn/Seattle Over 7-115 with Adrian Johnson. Like Fletcher above, he is a rainmaker for runs and a true over umpire. He's 10-4-2 this year Over on 10.6 runs, with a low 62.3% strikes, and a paltry 1.98 SO/BB Ratio. His last 102 games or 3 years tell a similar story with 62.1% going over, hitting 9.6 runs per game. Miller for SEA has not pitched good at all in June nor has Lopez. Lopez carries a 5.11 ERA, 1.17 Whip, through 88 innings and 16 starts. Minny has avg 6 runs per game in their last 10, and Lopez always gets run support. I see this game going over 8.

 

[piratealew]

***4th Umpire Over is ⭐️LA Dodgers/SF Over 7-115 with Andy Fletcher, who is the best overs ump this year with a 13-2 over record this year on 12.2 runs per game, due to his very low 61.9% strikes and 1.81 SO/BB Ratio. His last 7 have hit the over and I've been on every one. Tonight we have 2 teams that average 1.25 homers per game this month, and while Glasnow is strong, he's allowed a homer run each start this month and i see that continuing or giving up a few runs today. Giants are 6th in MLB in plate appearances, which affords them more opportunities to score. I had this game at 8, but now could see this reaching double digits with Fletcher as ump and a 15 mph wind out to center helping. This is a top play

too easy. cashed in the 4th, this guy, as i said before, is almost an auto over umpire these day. now 8 straight. he squeezed glasnow bad over and over .

 

[piratealew]

17-11 Saturday, 8-5 on top plays and 3-2 Umpire Overs with the big one on dodgers over cashed easy. Another really good day. 4 days in a row. Back later

 

[piratealew]

Got a correction, someone msg me and said i counted Dodgers-1.5 as a loss, which I did incorrectly as they won,, so 18-10 Sat..

18-10 Sat/982-851YTD/ (499-432 Top plays) Umpire Overs=87-58 Umpire Under=5-2

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Dodgers-130
⭐️Twins-102
⭐️Royals-125
⭐️Yanks/Blow Jays Over 7.5-120
⭐️Mets-138
⭐️Angels-105
⭐️Braves-120
⭐️San Diego Chaplains (Padres)+110
⭐️Dbacks-1-128 (Full game)
⭐️Cubs+0.5+105 (F5-First 5 innings RL)
⭐️Dodgers/Giants Over 8.5-120
⭐️Baltimore-147
Nationals+1.5-129 (Full game RL)
Reds+101
White Sux-1-110
Royals/Guardians Over 8-120
Marlins+2-129
Blue Jays +102 (F5/First 5 innings)
Reds/Cards Over 7.5-115
Nats/Rays over 7.5-110
Nationals+166 ML (Full game)
Cubs+160 (Full game)
Boston/San Dog Over 9-130
Oakland/Arizona Over 8-115
Braves/Pirates Over 9-115

 

[inzane]

Got a correction, someone msg me and said i counted Dodgers-1.5 as a loss, which I did incorrectly as they won,, so 18-10 Sat..

18-10 Sat/982-851YTD/ (499-432 Top plays) Umpire Overs=87-58 Umpire Under=5-2

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Dodgers-130
⭐️Twins-102
⭐️Royals-125
⭐️Yanks/Blow Jays Over 7.5-120
⭐️Mets-138
⭐️Angels-105
⭐️Braves-120
⭐️San Diego Chaplains (Padres)+110
⭐️Dbacks-1-128 (Full game)
⭐️Cubs+0.5+105 (F5-First 5 innings RL)
⭐️Dodgers/Giants Over 8.5-120
⭐️Baltimore-147
Nationals+1.5-129 (Full game RL)
Reds+101
White Sux-1-110
Royals/Guardians Over 8-120
Marlins+2-129
Blue Jays +102 (F5/First 5 innings)
Reds/Cards Over 7.5-115
Nats/Rays over 7.5-110
Nationals+166 ML (Full game)
Cubs+160 (Full game)
Boston/San Dog Over 9-130
Oakland/Arizona Over 8-115
Braves/Pirates Over 9-115

Good luck today Pirate and thanks for posting.

Any umpire overs yet?

 

[piratealew]

Good luck today Pirate and thanks for posting.

Any umpire overs yet?

thank you! Only 3 announced so far and i just saw Bellino is the ump in tampa so i will add more to that over and that will be one so far. Wating on the rest to be announced