Friday-Sunday June 30 MLB

[piratealew]

16-10 Sun/900-789 YTD/ (464-396 Top plays) Umpire Overs=73-46 Umpire Under=3-1

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Phillies-1-130
⭐️Boston-138
⭐️Dodgers-130
⭐️Seattle-103
⭐️Brewers-144
⭐️Guardians+110
⭐️Braves/Cards Over 8-135
⭐️Cubs+110
⭐️Pirates+108
⭐️Padres-0.5-130 (F5/First 5 innings)
Seatte/Tampons over 7-125
Cardinals+110
Angels-118
Royals-1.5-110
Padres-1-140 (Full game)
Dodgers/White Sox Over 7.5
Guardians/Oreos Over 8-115
Oakland/LAA Over 8-125
Nationals/Chaplains Over 7.5-120

CWS=5-3
⭐️Tennessee-1.5-125
TN/TAMU UNDER 10.5-120

Euro
Hit some nice Euro and copa plays last night with Hungary last min goal, Usa and uruguay both won, very exciting games. Trying these today..

Spain-1+135/Over 2.5 goals+120/
Over 8.5 Corners

Italy ML+160/Italy team goals over 1.5+150/BTTS

Spain ML+Tennesse Vols ML (100 nets 220ish most shops).

Copa
Colombia-125/Colombia Over 1.5 goals+105

 

[piratealew]

***First umpire Over is Braves/Cards Over 8 with Alfonso Marquez who rates at the very top of the extreme category for Hiter friendly umps at 4.37 tied with Moscoso, and Wegner, the reason being is he is consistently less than 64% called strikes every year and around a 2.3 SO/BB ratio most years, His last 5 years or 152 games, he is 58.6% over, and 9.7 runs, with a 2.3 SO/BB Ratio. The Braves are 7-3 to the over last 10 against the cards, and cards are 4-1 to the over last 5 gaames. Both teams should be able to hit plenty tonight as the Bravos are starting a rookie in hot and humid STL where the ball flies, and Lynn who holds a 4.34 ERA against the Braves and is prone to giving up crooked numbers often. This total is a top play.

 

[piratealew]

for later copa game-

Brazil-1+155 (First Half)

 

[piratealew]

***2nd Umpire Over is Dodgers/White Sox over 7.5 (Played above) with Erich Bacchus, who has been more friendly to hitters especially recently. This year his games are 8-4 to the over on just under 10 runs at 9.92, with 63% called strikes and a low 2.3 SO/BB Ratio. Last year in 30 games it told a similar story averaging over 9 runs a game on 64% called strikes. In their last game, the Dodgers nearly got this themselves with 7 runs, their offense has been heating up this month, scoring 5 or more runs in 3 of their last 4. White sox also have been hitting above their benchmarks recently and scoring more runs, i see this game getting to 9+ with help on both sides.

***3rd Ump Over is Texas/Milwaukee Over 7.5-120 with Larry Vanover,who is rated at the extreme catgeorgy for hitter friendly umps at 4.32 just below Marquez, Moscoso, and Tichenor. The reason being, last year and many years he calls a very low 61.5% strikes, resuling in a very high nearly 12 runs per game, on an very low 1.9 SO/BB Ratio, which gives him a 9-3 Over record last year while this year he's calling 63% strikes, and stil resulting in over 9 runs per game.

***4th Umpire Over is ⭐️Oak/LAA Over 8 (Played above) with Alan Porter who calls just over 63% strikes in his career, resulting in a 58% over hit rate his last 5 years or 104 games, on 9.5 runs per game and a low 2.5 SO/BB Ratio. He is rated in the hitter friendly category at 4.28. Both teams have seen each others pitching , and with the pitching tonight, should see home runs and more runs than usual. Both teams can hit the long ball well as A's are 7th in MLB with 90 homers and Angels are 14th with 82. A's are 23rd in pitching with a 4.66 ERA in 21 games in June while angels are 29th with a 5.26 ERA in june so I expect runs to be plenty. This is a top play.

 

[piratealew]

***5th Umpire Over is Cubs/Giants Over 7.5-110 with Adrian Johnson, who consistently ranks in the extreme hitter friendly ump category at 4.29 above Porter and just below Vanover and Tichenor. SF can be a pitcher's park at night and with Steele going who induces ground balls often, I was waiting on the umpire for this game before I played the over but with Johnson back behind mound I feel more confident as his games are 10-3 over this yr, on 10.9 Runs per game. a very low 1.9 SO/BB Ratio and also extremely low 61.9% strikes. Over his last 3 seasons his games are 62.8% over, in 101 games, way above most umps. Both teams are hiting the long ball recently as cubs have hit 7 and giants 6 just in the past week, while the pitching and bullpens have been beaten up for both, as Chicago is 28th with a 4.71 ERA and SF is 23rd with a 4.43 ERA. There would be plenty of run opportunities with these pitchers and AJ helping.

 

[piratealew]

12-7 Mon/912-796 YTD/ (470-401 Top plays) Umpire Overs=75-49 Umpire Under=3-1

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Yankees-139
⭐️Phillies-115
⭐️Dodgers-0.5-135 (F5/First 5 innings)
Baltimore-129
⭐️Twins-113
⭐️Cubs/Giants Over 7.5-125 (Umpire Over-See writeup)
⭐️Braves-126
Boston-115
Nats+125
Texas/Milwaukee Over 8.5-115
Angels-125
Texas+110
Tampa+120
Cleveland/Baltimore Over 9-115 (Umpire Over-see writeup)
Reds-120
Boston/Toronto Over 9-115
Yankees-0.5+100 (F5/First 5 innings)
Giants+108
Astros-1.5-110
Yankees/Mutts Over 8-120
Braves/Cards Over 8-115
Seattle/Tampa Over 7-135
Houston/Colorado Over 7.5-125
Phillies/Tigers UNDER 8-130 (Umpire UNDER-see Writeup)

***First Umpire Over is Giants/Cubs Over 7.5 with Adrian Johnson who is rated an extremely hitter friendly umpire due to his very low strike call at 61.9% this year and very low 1.9 SO/BB Ratio and a high 5.3 ERA in his games, resulting in a 10-3 to the over record this years on a very high 10.9 runs per game. Pitching also favors the over as the cubs Hendrick's has been awful on the road, with the total hitting 9 runs or more in each of his 6 starts. With giants throwing a bullpen day and Hendricks bad splits on the road, and a very lenient ump towards hitters, there's no reason these two dont go over like last night when they hit 9 runs.

***2nd Umpire Over is Clev/Balt Over 9 with Dan Bellino, who also rates as an extremely hitter friendly umpire, who's 8-6 to the over in '24, resulting in 10.3 runs per game on a 63% strike call and 2.55 SO/BB Ratio. Over his last 81 games or 2 years, he is 61.8% to the over on 9.9 runs, and with these offenses being 2 of the top 3 offenses in MLB, and hitting well against lefties (both hit over .250 against southpaws), I am more confident in the over with Dan behind home. Coming into yesterday, Guardians scored 6 or more in five straight games, while O's scored 7 or more in 3 of their last 5 and four of last 7 games. Logan Allen brings an over 5 era while Irvin about a 3.5, so I expect the orioles to be able to score plenty tonight and go over.

***1st Umpire UNDER is Phillies/Tigers UNDER 8-130 with DJ Reyburn who is 10-3 to the UNDER this year for 76.9%, on almost 65% called strikes and a high 3 SO/BB Ratio. His last 3 seasons, or 106 games he is 55% under in his games on 8.6 runs. Tonight's pitching matchup should be electric as well with the 2 best arms in each league, so I expect a defensive/pitchers dual tonight, also heading into last night's game the total had gone under in 4 of the last 5 between these 2. Philly's pitching staff has posted a league best 3.09 ERA in 77 games, lowest in MLB while Detroit has been bad from the offensive side, ranking 23rd in OPS and only hitting 72 homers. I see this as a Philly victory in a 5-2 type game, and with DJ expanding both pitcher's strike zone, I expect this will dampen the total as well.


For Euro's this afternoon:

Nethlerlands ML+110/BTTS-120/Netherlands Over 1.5 goals+110
France ML-140 (1st half)/Over 2.5 goals

Denmark ML+145/BTTS+110/Over 0.5 first half goals+120 (Denmark)
England 1st Half ML-115/Slovenia+2-110 (Full game)

Copa
Peru ML+260/Draw+220 (Small backup)

Argentina+110 (1st half)/Argentina-1+140/Over 2.5 goals+115

Wife has to go in a bit for another minor operation, so I may be around later in day with umpire updates if there are any as I'll be checking on my Ipad killing time. GL

 

[piratealew]

Royals-1-140

 

[piratealew]

***3rd Umpire Over is Houston/Colorado Over 7.5 with Mark Carlson who's 8-5-1 over this year, with 9.4 runs per game and a low 2.2 SO/BB ratio on just over 63% strikes. Last 3 years he's seen close to 55% of his games go over on 9.3 runs per game. Both teams are giving up runs in June, Houston is 9th in MLB with a 3.6 ERA while Colorado is dead last in every major category with a 6.75 ERA in 22 games in June. Both teams are scoring runs in june and scoring with RISP, as Houston is 13th in MLB with a .755 OPS while Rockies fare even better at .773, good for 10th tied with Detroit. I expect the astros to beat up on Gomber and the Rockies should push a few across to get this total.

 

[piratealew]

***4th Umpire Over is NY Yanks/Mutts Over 8 with Lance Barksdale, who rates as a moderate hitter friendly ump at 4.28 tied with Porter and just below Carlson due to his very low strike call %, and higher walks, this year he's calling 62% strikes resulting in a 9-7 Over record, 8.9 runs per game and a very low 2.07 SO/BB ratio, Helping the over, the Yanks are top 10 in hits, runs, homers, RBI's, walks, BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS. David Peterson will give up some runs tonight to this this tough Yankees lineup. I expect Cole to go 6-7 innngs top , and the mets should be able to get a few across against the yankees bullpen which hasn't been good lately. The mets are top 10 or just outside top 10 in runs, hits, Homers, rbi's, BA, OBP, OPS, and SLG. Runs should be scored and Lance should help for his average of 1.5 runs initiated.

 

[piratealew]

***5th Umpire Over is⭐️Minn/Arizona Over 7.5-115 with Andy Fletcher. I was waiting on this ump as I had the total getting to 8, but with Andy I have an extra 1-2 runs allowed as he's one of the most extreme hitter friendly umpires. He's almost an AUTO over play. Why? He's 12-2-1 to the over on an insane 12.4 runs, over 9 walks a game a very low 1.79 SO/BB Ratio and a miniscule 61.8% called strikes. I've hit the over with Andy now 5 times in a row, last games goin 13, 13, 10, 10, 14. With both teams scoring well in June, as Twins avg 6.54 runs per game in last 13 and zona scoring 5.17 in their last 14, combined with both not pitching well lately, Minnesota ranked 19th with a 4.40 ERA in 21 games in June while Zona is 29th with a 5.41 Pfadt for the snakes has been bad this year, gong 3-6 with a 4.37 ERA. There should be plenty of run scoring opportunities with Andy squeezing out the runs as well. This is a top play.

 

[piratealew]

⭐️Dodgers/White Sox Over 9-120

 

[piratealew]

After 3 great days, yesterday was yucky for top plays and bigger sides, overs were solid. 12-14 overall. Hit 3-2 Umpire overs, 1-0 umpire unders. Let's win some today.

Looks like a LOT of teams shuffling pitchers, between Callups and Bullpen days/scratches. I dont have time to keep going back and checking today so I played everything ACTION today early this morning, if guys change again, so be it, we ride with what happens today.

924-810 YTD/ (473-410 Top plays) Umpire Overs=78-51 Umpire Under=4-1

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Braves-122 (Game 1)
⭐️Phillies-1-138
⭐️Orioles-1-125
⭐️Twins-114
⭐️Yankees-138 (Full game)
⭐️Astros/Rocks Over 7.5-120
⭐️Texas+102
⭐️Nationals+1.5-129
⭐️Mariners-110
⭐️Cubs+115
⭐️Cardinals+133 (Game 2)
⭐️Cleveland/Baltimore Over 9-120 (Umpire Over-see writeup)
⭐️Boston-140
Angels-115
Reds-125
Royals-1.5+101
Astros-1-130
Yanks-126 (F5/First 5 innings)
Dodgers-0.5+100 (F5/First 5 innings)
Nationals+166
Seattle/Tampa Over 7-120 (Umpire Over-see writeup)
Minnesota/Arizona Over 8.5-130 (Umpire Over-see writeup)
Yanks/Mutts Over 8-135
Nationals/Padres Over 7.5-112
Texas/Milwaukee Over 8-115
Athletics/Angels Over 8.5-120
***1st umpire Over is Clev/Baltimore Over 9 with Phil Cuzzi (This is the crew of Cuzzi and Bellino who got us an easy over last night). Cuzzi is 62% to the over this year in 15 games, avg 9.3 runs per game, on a 2.8 SO/BB Ratio, and just over 64% called strikes. Both teams are scoring well lately with 5.17 on avg for Clev in last 25 games while Orioles score 5.61 last 28 games. Guardians and Baltimore are 3rd and 4th in MLB hitting with RISP, as Guards are .814 OPS and Balty has a .811 OPS in those situations. Carrasco brings a 5.4 ERA and the Orioles should find plenty of run scoring opps like last night while Grayson may be tougher to hit for the Guardians, they should plate enough to cover the over. I had this at 9-10 runs but with Cuzzi squeezing pitchers, I could see another run added, as his run initiated index is over 1 run per game this year, with as high as 2.13 in his last game. The avg ERA for his games is a high 4.4

***2nd Umpire Over is Seattle/Tampa Over 7 with Brian Knight who rates as a moderate hitter friendly ump at 4,28, tied with Porter and just below Carlson in the extreme category and this is due to his low strike call and higher walks, as he's calling 63% strikes in his career, hits the over just over 51%, but averages 9.1 runs and a 2.3 SO/BB Ratio. In his last 3 appearances, Pepiot has been less than sharp giving up 2 in 3 IP to the pirates, 5 to ATL in 4IP, and 4 over 6 to Balty. With the dome and matchup, I had this game at 7-8 runs but could see another 1-2 added on the total with Brian calling the balls and strikes in favor of the hitters.

***3rd Umpire Over is Minn/AZ Over 8.5 with Jansen Visconti, who is 8-6 over this year, with a 4.3 ERA in his games resulting in 9.2 runs per game. His last 3 games have gone 14, 16, 10, all pitcher friendly parks. Over his last 2 yrs or 74 games, his games have gone 54.2% over, on 8.8 runs per game with a 2.5 SO/BB Ration on 64% strikes. Like last night when the total was eclipsed, tonight's matchup is very favorable to the over as Nelson gave up 6 runs (2 Innings) to the twins last year. While both teams ranks in the top half of most offensive cat like BA, Zona ranks in the top 10 in Slug and OBP. Dbacks have gone over the total in 7 of the last 8 home games, and bothe teams have scored plenty the last 6-7 games, so I expect another over, possibly early with the Umpire help.

Euro (if anyone is playing)
Slovakia/Romania Draw+125 (More likely)/Slovakia ML+220 (Small)

Belgium ML-140 (Belgium waffles were great this AM)

Turkey Over 2.5+110/BTTS/Czechia Draw No bet-110

Portugal ML (1st Half)-105/Over 2.5 goals

Copa
Ecuador+120 (1st half)/Ecuador-1+160/Under 2.5 goals
Mexico+130/Draw+230 (Small)/Over 2.5 goals+130

 

[doyleellis11]

Thank You Pirate , Good Luck & Hope all goes well on HomeFront !

 

[piratealew]

Royals/Marlins Over 8.5-115

 

[piratealew]

***4th Umpire over is Texas/Mil Over 8 with Nate Tomlinson (Note one source says Conroy while 2 more accurate say Nate and had Conroy earlier so must have changed). Already played this over earlier but added some to it with the Umpire news as Nate is a very hitter friendly umpire 8-6 to the over this year on 2.6 SO/BB Walks and 63% strikes, last year is more indicative of his work in 35 games he was 24-10 Over with over 11.2 runs per game on 63% strikes, a low 2.2 SO/BB ratio. I had this game pegged for around 9 runs, but with Nate working and his over 1.5 runs initiated on avg this year, I see this going over 9. The total has gone over in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games and with some umpire help this should too.

***5th Umpire Over is Nats/Padres Over 7.5 with Edwin Moscoso who is an extremely hitter friendly umpire at a 4.36 out of 4.37, as he consistently is calling 63% strikes, and this year that results in 9.4 runs on a 2.5 SO/BB ratio, resulting in a 10-5 over record this year, while last eyar in 33 games his games avgeraged 10.12 runs per game, on 63% called strikes and 2.3 SO/BB Ratio and 23-10 to the over, with previous years similar results. The nats are 4-1 to the over in last 5 against SD, while Padres are 8-2 over last 10 games. Cease has struggled mightily this year and I expect that to continue with a high scoring game again like last night.

 

[piratealew]

scratch Texas/Mil over as an umpire over. Umpire changed again, still playing the over.

 

[piratealew]

I removed the Milwaukee over as umpire total when they changed the umpire, obviously still kept the over and it cashed easily regardless.

***5th Umpire Over is Oakland/LAA over 8.5 with John Bacon, who rates at 4.26 and in the hitter friendly category of umps just below Libka, and tied with Derek Thomas. He has a generous K zone calling 63% strikes and a very low 2.16 SO/BB ratio.Last year he called 62% strikes and averaged over 8 runs in his games. When looking at rotal runs initiated by ump he is in the higher category last 2 years with an avg of over 1.5 each game with as high as 3.08. The pitching matchup favors the over here as Estes struggles on the road, last road start he was tagged for 6 runs over 2.2 innings in Minnesota. Angels going with Contreras and bullpen so I expect both sides to be able to score today, and with John's average of 1.5 runs initiated, we should hit this total earlier.

 

[piratealew]

I removed the Milwaukee over as umpire total when they changed the umpire, obviously still kept the over and it cashed easily regardless.

***5th Umpire Over is Oakland/LAA over 8.5 with John Bacon, who rates at 4.26 and in the hitter friendly category of umps just below Libka, and tied with Derek Thomas. He has a generous K zone calling 63% strikes and a very low 2.16 SO/BB ratio.Last year he called 62% strikes and averaged over 8 runs in his games. When looking at rotal runs initiated by ump he is in the higher category last 2 years with an avg of over 1.5 each game with as high as 3.08. The pitching matchup favors the over here as Estes struggles on the road, last road start he was tagged for 6 runs over 2.2 innings in Minnesota. Angels going with Contreras and bullpen so I expect both sides to be able to score today, and with John's average of 1.5 runs initiated, we should hit this total earlier.

this is a top play now

 

[piratealew]

Good afternoon so far, cashing the top 2 plays, hope the evening games are just as good.


adding:

⭐️Dodgers-1-134 (Full game)
Cubs/Giants Over 7.5--112

***6th Umpire Over is Cubs/Giants Over 7.5 With Quinn Wolcott who has been a hitter friendly umpire the past 2 years particularly as he's 54% to the over in 70 games on almost 9 runs per game. His games see a 2.7 SO/BB ratio and just over 64% called strikes. In a pitcher friendly park like SFO, it helps to have a good pitching matchup and umpire. We have both tonight, in Quinn's last game at SFO 15 runs were scored between the Rockies and Giants. Something similar could be in store tonight as the Giants are starting a rookie, and Wisneski going for the cubs is bound to give up a few runs as well. SF has hit the over 7 of their last 9, and cubs games have avg over 8.5 runs this season while Giants games avg 9. With Quinn squeezing these pitchers and a 12-15 mph wind to left center, this over should be easily attainable.

 

[piratealew]

Finished Wednesday 16-11, Cashed the top 4 plays straight, 9-6 top plays, 2-3-1 Umpire Over calls (Tnx cubs for messing that last over up).
Back in a few hours after I finish Thursday's card.